Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Evaluating Cmip6 Model Fidelity At Simulating Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails, Arielle J. Catalano, Paul Loikith, J. David Neelin

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under global warming, changes in extreme temperatures will manifest in more complex ways in locations where temperature distribution tails deviate from Gaussian. Confidence in global climate model (GCM) projections of temperature extremes and associated impacts therefore relies on the realism of simulated temperature distribution tail behavior under current climate conditions. This study evaluates the ability of the latest state-of-the-art ensemble of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6), to capture historical global surface temperature distribution tail shape in hemispheric winter and summer seasons. Comparisons with a global reanalysis product reveal strong agreement on coherent spatial patterns of …