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On The Inability Of Markov Models To Capture Criticality In Human Mobility, Vaibhav Klukarni, Abhijit Mahalunkar, Benoit Garbinato, John Kelleher

Conference papers

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish an upper bound on the predictability of human mobility, based on the temporal entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used for validating the performance of mobility prediction models. We show that the variants of recurrent neural network architectures can achieve significantly higher prediction accuracy surpassing this upper bound. The central objective of our work is to show that human-mobility dynamics exhibit criticality characteristics which …