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Optimized Forecasting Of Dominant U.S. Stock Market Equities Using Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Analysis Methods, Michael Schwartz

Computational and Data Sciences Theses

This dissertation documents an investigation into forecasting U.S. stock market equities via two very different time series analysis techniques: 1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and 2) singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Approximately 40% of the S&P 500 stocks are analyzed. Forecasts are generated for one and five days ahead using daily closing prices. Univariate and multivariate structures are applied and results are compared. One objective is to explore the hypothesis that a multivariate model produces superior performance over a univariate configuration. Another objective is to compare the forecasting performance of ARIMA to SSA, as SSA is a relatively recent development …