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Climate

CCPO Publications

Series

2015

Articles 1 - 9 of 9

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas Sep 2015

Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas

CCPO Publications

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained …

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Odu-European Collaborations On Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Reserach, Tal Ezer Jul 2015

Odu-European Collaborations On Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Reserach, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Less than five years ago, Old Dominion University started the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative (CCSLRI), which led to the recently established Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute (MARI) and the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness & Resilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project. This interdisciplinary area of research also has a long history in many European countries. Direct measurements of sea level started more than 200 years ago and flood mitigation measures have been in effect for a long time in London, the Netherlands and many other places. Today, reports on flooding in Norfolk, UK, by the BBC or …

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The Effect Of The El Nino-Southern Oscillation On U.S. Regional And Coastal Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K. -Y. Kim, R. S. Nerem, L. P. Atkinson, P. R. Thompson Jun 2015

The Effect Of The El Nino-Southern Oscillation On U.S. Regional And Coastal Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K. -Y. Kim, R. S. Nerem, L. P. Atkinson, P. R. Thompson

CCPO Publications

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variability can contribute significantly to regional sea level. Such sea level variability should be taken into consideration when planning efforts to mitigate the effects of future sea level change. In this study, we quantify the contribution to regional sea level of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF) of the long reconstructed sea level data set and of a set of U.S. tide gauges, two global modes dominated by Pacific Ocean …

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Impact Of Local Winter Cooling On The Melt Of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, J. M. Klinck, M. S. Dinniman Jan 2015

Impact Of Local Winter Cooling On The Melt Of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, J. M. Klinck, M. S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

The rapid thinning of the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea is generally attributed to basal melt driven by warm water originating from the continental slope. We examine the hypothesis that processes taking place on the continental shelf contribute significantly to the interannual variability of the ocean heat content and ice shelf melt rates. A numerical model is used to simulate the circulation of ocean heat and the melt of the ice shelves over the period 2006–2013. The fine model grid (grid spacing 1.5 km) explicitly resolves the coastal polynyas and mesoscale processes. The ocean heat content of the eastern …

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A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim Jan 2015

A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Past studies have described large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the Southern Hemisphere that lead to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold events (WE and CE). By relying on this description and the importance of the related variability in the lead up to WE and CE, Southern Hemisphere SLP variations in May-June-July (MJJ) are shown here to be excellent predictors for the peak warm/cold events in sea-surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressure that mark the mature phase of a warm/cold event in November-January of the same year. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) are used to extract the …

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Considerations For Estimating The 20th Century Trend In Global Mean Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, P. R. Thompson Jan 2015

Considerations For Estimating The 20th Century Trend In Global Mean Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, P. R. Thompson

CCPO Publications

Recent efforts in reconstructing historical sea level change have led to a range of published estimates for the global mean sea level trend over the last century. Disagreement in these estimates can be attributed to two factors: (1) differences in analysis and/or reconstruction techniques and (2) differences in tide gauge selection and quality control of the data. Here the impact of tide gauge selection is explored by calculating global mean trends using three different tide gauge data sets that have been utilized in recent reconstruction studies. The inclusion of tide gauge records that are affected by unresolved internal variability and/or …

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Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim Jan 2015

Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of …

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Sea Level Trends In Southeast Asian Seas, M. W. Strassburg, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Manrung, J. Lumban-Gaol, B. Nababan, K.-Y. Kim Jan 2015

Sea Level Trends In Southeast Asian Seas, M. W. Strassburg, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Manrung, J. Lumban-Gaol, B. Nababan, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically …

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Theoretical Foundation Of Cyclostationary Eof Analysis For Geophysical And Climatic Variables: Concepts And Examples, Kwang-Yul Kim, Benjamin Hamlington, Hanna Na Jan 2015

Theoretical Foundation Of Cyclostationary Eof Analysis For Geophysical And Climatic Variables: Concepts And Examples, Kwang-Yul Kim, Benjamin Hamlington, Hanna Na

CCPO Publications

Natural variability is an essential component of observations of all geophysical and climate variables. In principal component analysis (PCA), also called empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a set of orthogonal eigenfunctions is found from a spatial covariance function. These empirical basis functions often lend useful insights into physical processes in the data and serve as a useful tool for developing statistical methods. The underlying assumption in PCA is the stationarity of the data analyzed; that is, the covariance function does not depend on the origin of time. The stationarity assumption is often not justifiable for geophysical and climate variables even …

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