Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A General Pattern Of Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Resistance And Resilience To Tropical Cyclones, Christopher J. Patrick, John S. Kominoski, (...), Enie Hensel, Marc J. S. Hense, Bradley A. Strickland, (..), A. K. Hardison, Sean Kinard, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are pre-dicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes …

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, T. Allen, J. Behr, (...), Jon Derek Loftis, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stake-holders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …

Asynchronous Nitrogen Supply And Demand Produce Nonlinear Plant Allocation Responses To Warming And Elevated Co2, Genevieve L. Noyce, Matthew L. Kirwan, Roy L. Rich, J. Patrick Megonigal

VIMS Articles

Terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change are mediated by complex plant–soil feedbacks that are poorly understood, but often driven by the balance of nutrient supply and demand. We actively increased aboveground plant-surface temperature, belowground soil temperature, and atmospheric CO₂ in a brackish marsh and found nonlinear and nonadditive feedbacks in plant responses. Changes in root-to-shoot allocation by sedges were nonlinear, with peak belowground allocation occurring at +1.7 °C in both years. Above 1.7 °C, allocation to root versus shoot production decreased with increasing warming such that there were no differences in root biomass between ambient and +5.1 °C plots …

Collaborative Science To Enhance Coastal Resilience And Adaptation, C. Reid Nichols, Lynn Wright, Arthur Cosby, Alain Henaff, Jon Derek Loftis, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Impacts from natural and anthropogenic coastal hazards are substantial and increasing significantly with climate change. Coasts and coastal communities are increasingly at risk. In addition to short-term events, long-term changes, including rising sea levels, increasing storm intensity, and consequent severe compound flooding events are degrading coastal ecosystems and threatening coastal dwellers. Consequently, people living near the coast require environmental intelligence in the form of reliable short-term and long-term predictions in order to anticipate, prepare for, adapt to, resist, and recover from hazards. Risk-informed decision making is crucial, but for the resulting information to be actionable, it must be effectively and …

Treading Water: Tools To Help Us Coastal Communities Plan For Sea Level Rise Impacts, E A. Smith, W Sweet, Molly Mitchell, R Domingues, C P. Weaver, M Baringer, G Goni, J Haines, Jon Derek Loftis, John D. Boon, David L. Malmquist

VIMS Articles

As communities grapple with rising seas and more frequent flooding events, they need improved projections of future rising and flooding over multiple time horizons, to assist in a multitude of planning efforts. There are currently a few different tools available that communities can use to plan, including the Sea Level Report Card and products generated by a United States. Federal interagency task force on sea level rise. These tools are a start, but it is recognized that they are not necessarily enough at present to provide communities with the type of information needed to support decisions that range from seasonal …

Ocean Change Within Shoreline Communities: From Biomechanics To Behaviour And Beyond, Brian Gaylord, Kristina M. Barclay, Brittany M. Jellison, Laura L. Jurgens, Aaron T. Ninokawa, Emily B. Rivest, Lindsey R. Leighton

VIMS Articles

Humans are changing the physical properties of Earth. In marine systems, elevated carbon dioxide concentrations are driving notable shifts in temperature and seawater chemistry. Here, we consider consequences of such perturbations for organism biomechanics and linkages amongst species within communities.In particular,we examine case examples of altered morphologies and material properties, disrupted consumer–prey behaviours, and the potential for modulated positive (i.e. facilitative) interactions amongst taxa, as incurred through increasing ocean acidity and rising temperatures. We focus on intertidal rocky shores of temperate seas as model systems, acknowledging the longstanding role of these communities in deciphering ecological principles. Our survey illustrates the …

Overcoming Early Career Barriers To Interdisciplinary Climate Change Research, Christopher J. Hein, John E. Ten Hoeve, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Climate-change impacts are among the most serious and complex challenges facing society, affecting both natural and social systems. Addressing these requires a new paradigm of interdisciplinary collaboration which incorporates tools, techniques, and insights from across the social, natural, and engineering sciences. Yet, a wide range of intrinsic and extrinsic hurdles need to be overcome to conduct successful, integrated interdisciplinary research. The results of a bibliometric analysis and survey of early to mid-career scientists from 56 countries who were involved with the interdisciplinary DISsertations initiative for the advancement of Climate Change ReSearch (DISCCRS) emphasize the particular challenges faced by early career …

A Climatological Dataset Of Nutrient, Chlorophyll, And Particulate Matter Distributions On The Ross Sea Continental Shelf Derived From Cruise-Based Measurements Spanning 1967 To 2016, Walker O. Smith Jr., Daniel E. Kaufman

Data

This dataset includes data used in the publication Smith and Kaufman (2018), Progress in Oceanography, which examines the temporal and spatial distributions of nutrients and particulate matter in the Ross Sea continental Shelf using cruise-based observations, and compares the resulting annual productivity estimates with previously reported satellite-based estimates. Specifically, these data represent distributions of nutrients, chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon, particulate organic nitrogen, and biogenic silica that were compiled from 42 cruises (from 1967 - 2016) to the Ross Sea continental shelf to generate a comprehensive climatological dataset for November, December, January, and February. This climatology provides a novel look at …

Integrated Ocean, Earth, And Atmospheric Observations For Resilience Planning In Hampton Roads, Virginia, Jon Derek Loftis, Molly Mitchell, Larry Atkinson, Ben Hamlington, Thomas R. Allen, David R. Forrest, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Building flood resilience in coastal communities requires a precise understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of inundation and the ability to detect and predict changes in flooding. In Hampton Roads, the Intergovernmental Pilot Project's Scientific Advisory Committee recommended an integrated network of ocean, earth, and atmospheric data collection from both private and public sector organizations that engage in active scientific monitoring and observing. Since its establishment, the network has grown to include monitoring of water levels, land subsidence, wave measurements, current measurements, and atmospheric conditions. High-resolution land elevation and land cover data sets have also been developed. These products …

Institutionalizing Resilience In U.S. Universities: Prospects, Opportunities, And Models, Morris Foster, James O’Donnell, Mark Luckenbach, Elizabeth Andrews, Emily Steinhilber, John Wells, Mark Davis

VIMS Articles

The United States is taking a largely region-specific approach to addressing challenges posed by climate change, in contrast with national and international approaches in most of the rest of the world. In locations such as Hampton Roads,New Orleans, and coastal Connecticut, the impacts of climate change tend to be addressed as they become locally evident rather than as part of a larger anticipatory national plan. Given that regional focus, universities can play a unique role in how the United States responds to the challenges of a changing climate.

Stormsense: A New Integrated Network Of Iot Water Level Sensors In The Smart Cities Of Hampton Roads, Va, Jon Derek Loftis, David R. Forrest, Sridhar Katragadda, Kyle Spencer, Tammie Organski, Cuong Nguyen, Sokwoo Rhee

VIMS Articles

Propagation of cost-effective water level sensors powered through the Internet of Things (IoT) has expanded the available offerings of ingestible data streams at the disposal of modern smart cities. StormSense is an IoT-enabled inundation forecasting research initiative and an active participant in the Global City Teams Challenge, seeking to enhance flood preparedness in the smart cities of Hampton Roads, VA, for flooding resulting from storm surge, rain, and tides. In this study, we present the results of the new StormSense water level sensors to help establish the “regional resilience monitoring network” noted as a key recommendation from the Intergovernmental Pilot …

'Catch The King' Tide With Stormsense On Nov. 5th: How You Can Help Crowd-Source Tidal Flood Event Calibrations For Hampton Roads' Newest Water Level Sensors, Jon Derek Loftis, Harry Wang, David R. Forrest

Presentations

Dr. Derek Loftis presented his recent research related to installing new water level sensors (and some of the early event data the network has captured during Hurricanes Jose and Maria) in many Hampton Roads municipalities with the StormSense Smart Cities project. This presentation also introduces information related VIMS efforts with the CCRFR and local news media in the organization of the 'Catch the King' Tide crowd-sourcing data event using the Sea Level Rise App.

Incorporation Of Sea Level Change Scenarios Into Norfolk Harbor And Channels Deepening Study & Elizabeth River Southern Branch Navigation Improvements Study : Final Report, Rico Wang, Jian Shen, Mac Sisson

Reports

Previously the VIMS modeling group has studied the impact of channel deepening on the water quality in lower James River, including Norfolk Harbor and Elizabeth River. A study of the response of the water quality to future Sea Level Change (SLC) is required by present USACE guidance (ER 1100-2-8162 and ETL 1100-2-1). ETL 1100-2-1 recommends analyzing the effects of SLC on the projects at three future time periods of post-construction, including 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years. The future change of sea level is mainly caused by the sea level rise (SLR) in this region. This document provides results …

Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios Into Norfolk Harbor Channels Deepening And Elizabeth River Southern Branch Navigation Improvements Study : Final Report On The “Hydrodynamic Modeling”, Zhuo Liu, Harry V. Wang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Fei Ye

Reports

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) team has applied a 3D unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model SCHISM in the study of the impact of channel dredging on hydrodynamics in the lower Chesapeake Bay project area. This report is a companion report to that of Zhang et al. (2017; doi:10.21220/V5MF0F) and focuses on the impact of channel dredging specifically under the projected future sea-level change (SLC) of 1 meter rise by 2100. This is an average of the high end of semi-empirical, global sea-level rise (SLR) projections adopted by the Virginia Port Authority (VPA) and the Army Corps of Engineers, Norfolk District, …

Sea Level Rise May Increase Extinction Risk Of A Saltmarsh Ontogenetic Habitat Specialist, David S. Johnson, Bethany L. Williams

VIMS Articles

Specialist species are more vulnerable to environmental change than generalist species. For species with ontogenetic niche shifts, specialization may occur at a particular life stage making those stages more susceptible to environmental change. In the salt marshes in the northeast U.S., accelerated sea level rise is shifting vegetation patterns from flood-intolerant species such as Spartina patens to the flood-tolerant Spartina alterniflora. We tested the potential impact of this change on the coffee bean snail, Melampus bidentatus, a numerically dominant benthic invertebrate with an ontogenetic niche shift. From a survey of eight marshes throughout the northeast U.S., small snails …

Adapt Virginia: A New Web Portal About Climate Change Adaptations (Www.Adaptva.Org), Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

Rivers & Coast is a periodic publication of the Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The goal of Rivers & Coast is to keep readers well informed of current scientific understanding behind key environmental issues related to watershed rivers and coastal ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay.

Stormsense Project: Forecasting Flooding From Storm Surge, Rain, And Tide, Jon Derek Loftis, David R. Forrest, Kyle Spencer

Presentations

The objective of StormSense is to enhance the capability of communities to prepare and respond to the disastrous impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding in ways that are replicable, scalable, measurable, and make a comparable difference worldwide. The StormSense Project is an inundation forecasting research initiative partially funded by the National Institute of Standards and Technology to advance the field of emergency preparedness for flooding resulting from storm surge, rain, and tides. The scope of the project encompasses the interests of coastal local governments wishing to enhance their emergency preparedness via a network of 'Internet of Things' (IoT)-enabled …

Climate Change Impacts On Southern Ross Sea Phytoplankton Composition, Productivity, And Export, Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Walker O. Smith Jr., Eileen E. Hofmann, Michael S. Dinniman, John C. P. Hemmings

VIMS Articles

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity …

Associated Dataset: Climate Change Impacts On Southern Ross Sea Phytoplankton Composition, Productivity And Export, Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Walker O. Smith Jr., Eileen E. Hofmann, Michael S. Dinniman, John C.P. Hemmings

Data

This dataset includes data used in the publication Kaufman et al., 2017, JGR-Oceans, which investigates how these climatic changes in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, may alter phytoplankton composition, primary productivity and export. A one-dimensional version of the Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification was adapted for use in the Ross Sea (MEDUSA-RS). Glider measurements were used to force MEDUSA-RS, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance was evaluated with glider observations, and experiments were conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid- and late-21st century. Additional scenarios examined the …

Street-Level Inundation Modeling Of Hurricanes Matthew And Hermine And Emerging Flood Monitoring Methods In Hampton Roads, Jon Derek Loftis, H. V. Wang, D R. Forrest

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Sea-Level Rise & Virginia's Coastal Wetlands, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

Rivers & Coast is a periodic publication of the Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The goal of Rivers & Coast is to keep readers well informed of current scientific understanding behind key environmental issues related to watershed rivers and coastal ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay.

Street-Level Predictive Modeling Of Nuisance Flooding Verified Via Crowdsourced App Data In Norfolk, Va, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang, D R. Forrest

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Informing Social Decision Making: Physical Vulnerability To Sea Level Rise, Alexander D. Renaud, Karinna Nunez, Molly Mitchell, Carl Hershner

Presentations

Social indices on census tract and other geopolitical levels are increasingly being considered to inform decision making. In a flooding and sea level rise context, the likelihood of an area flooding is an important component of adaptation and the decision-making framework, however it is frequently modeled on a continuous scale. In our work, we have developed an index of physical vulnerability to flooding on a census tract scale, specifically designed to complement social vulnerability indices.

Towards Predicting Street-Level Inundation: Using Operational Forecast Modeling Techniques During 2011 Hurricane Irene, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang, D. R. Forrest

Presentations

Storm surge-induced coastal inundation poses numerous personal, commercial, industrial, and sociopolitical challenges for society. Flooding can be caused by the combination of storm surge and river-induced inland flooding in many locations throughout the coastal plain. The cross-disciplinary nature of the hydrodynamics involved (hydraulics, oceanography, and hydrology), coupled with the complexity of the atmospheric forcing, makes a numerical model the best approach for a comprehensive study of the dynamics of coastal inundation.

This study builds upon the lessons learned from forecast modeling experiences during 2011 Hurricane Irene in Tidewater Virginia, to ascertain the most effective way to approach predicting street-level inundation. …

Assessing The Impact Of Climate Change On Proposed Restoration Of The Lynnhaven River Ecosystem, Emily E. Skeehan

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Environmental degradation of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) and its sub-estuaries has been linked to population growth in the surrounding coastal zone, rapid development in the watershed and resultant nutrient loading into the Bay. Consequently, the federal government and its partners have developed restoration plans to mitigate the effects of eutrophication and improve essential ecosystem functions, though few restoration plans have considered the interactive effects of climate change. Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers are causing changes in ecosystem structure and function, thereby impacting the beneficial services ecosystems provide. While some studies have attempted to quantitatively predict the benefits of ecosystem …

Recurrent Flooding Study For Tidewater Virginia, Molly Mitchell, Carl Hershner, Julie Herman, Daniel E. Schatt, Emily Eggington, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Formation Of Periodic Hypoxia In Partially Mixed Estuaries And Its Response To Oligotrophication And Climate Change, Samuel J. Lake

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

The development of hypoxia represents one of the most common and ecologically detrimental effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment in coastal marine ecosystems. Due to the physiological importance of oxygen as a key component of metabolic processes, the development and persistence of hypoxia can reduce the distribution of important species, modify food webs, decrease diversity and richness, and sub-lethally affect growth and reproductive rates. While many recent studies have focused on the global increase in hypoxia and highlighted the need for nutrient reduction strategies, some key processes associated with hypoxia remain understudied. of particular importance is the resolution of the major …

Simulation Of Coastal Inundation Instigated By Storm Surge And River Discharge In The Chesapeake Bay Using Sub-Grid Modeling Coupled With Lidar Data, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang

Presentations

Sub-grid modeling is a novel method by which water level elevations on the sub-grid level can be obtained through the combination of water levels and velocities efficiently calculated at the coarse computational grid, the discretized bathymetric depths, and local friction parameters without resorting to solve the full set of equations. Sub-grid technology essentially allows velocity to be determined rationally and efficiently at the sub-grid level. This salient feature enables coastal flooding to be addressed in a single cross-scale model from the ocean to the upstream river channel without overly refining the grid resolution. To this end, high-resolution DEMs will be …

Potential Climate-Change Impacts On The Chesapeake Bay, Raymond G. Najjar, Christopher R. Pyke, Mary Beth Adams, Denise Breitburg, Carl Hershner, Et Al

VIMS Articles

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6m, and 2–6C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associatedwith changes in annual streamflow, though it …

Vulnerability Of Shallow Tidal Water Habitats In Virginia To Climate Change, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Carl H. Herschner, Tamia Rudnicky, Karinna Nunez, Daniel E. Schatt, Sharon Kileen, Marcia Berman, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

The principal objective of this study was to develop a characterization of current shallow-water habitat components in Virginia tidal waters and predict climate driven changes to these habitats. To project broad-scale climate change effects on the abundance and distribution of coastal habitats, an inundation model based on anticipated relative sea-level rise, temperature and salinity projections, and coastal development were integrated into a GIS modeling framework. Using this framework, simple models were constructed that forecast the distribution of key coastal habitat parameters within the next 50 to 100 years including: shallow-water areas, tidal wetlands, submerged aquatic vegetation and estuarine beaches. The …