Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Water Whiplash In Mediterranean Regions Of The World, Citlalli Madrigal, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota, Wenzhao Li, Glenn Tootle, Hesham El-Askary

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The presence of weather and water whiplash in Mediterranean regions of the world is analyzed using historical streamflow records from 1926 to 2023, depending on the region. Streamflow from the United States (California), Italy, Australia, Chile, and South Africa is analyzed using publicly available databases. Water whiplash—or the rapid shift of wet and dry periods—are compared. Wet and dry periods are defined based on annual deviations from the historical record average, and whiplash occurs when there is an abrupt change that overcomes an accommodated deficit or surplus. Of all the stations, there are more dry years (56%) than wet years …

How Is Flash Drought Understood?—Experts’ Definitions And Decision-Makers’ Perceptions, Caily Schwartz, Tonya Haigh, Mark D. Svoboda, Madeline Goebel

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Because flash drought is a relatively new phenomenon in drought research, defining the concept is critical for scientists and decision-makers. Having detrimental impacts on many sectors, it is important to have a consistent definition and understanding of flash drought, between experts and stakeholders, to provide early warning to the community. This study focuses on onset and progression of conditions and demonstrates the difference in flash drought identification for 15 events across six quantitative definitions of flash drought that use the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Five flash drought events have been studied in the literature while 10 additional events have been …

The Patchwork Governance Of Ecologically Available Water: A Case Study In The Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States, Amanda E. Cravens, Julia B. Goolsby, Theresa Jedd, Deborah J. Bathke, Shelley Crausbay, Ashley E. Cooper, Jason Dunham, Tonya Haigh, Kimberly R. Hall, Michael J. Hayes, Jamie Mcevoy, Rebecca L. Nelson, Markéta Poděbradská, Aaron Ramirez, Elliot Wickham, Dionne Zoanni

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess …

The Last Drought Frontier: Building A Drought Index For The State Of Alaska, Olivia Campbell

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Drought is characterized by periods of below average precipitation. There are five major types of drought recognized in the literature: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and ecological. A relatively new concept in the drought literature is “snow drought.” A key part of the definition of drought is that it is not always accompanied by extreme heat. This means drought can occur even in cold climates, cold seasons, and higher latitudes and altitudes, like Alaska. Drought is a natural part of climate variability, but Alaska’s climate is changing faster than any other state in the United States. Alaska is no stranger to …

Physiological And Transcriptomic Responses Of Two Artemisia Californica Populations To Drought: Implications For Restoring Drought-Resilient Native Communities, Hagop S. Atamian Dr., Jennifer L. Funk

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

As climate change brings drier and more variable rainfall patterns to many arid and semi-arid regions, land managers must re-assemble appropriate plant communities for these conditions. Transcriptome sequencing can elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying plant responses to changing environmental conditions, potentially enhancing our ability to screen suitable genotypes and species for restoration. We examined physiological and morphological traits and transcriptome sequences of coastal and inland populations of California sagebrush (Artemisia californica), a critical shrub used to restore coastal sage scrub vegetation communities, grown under low and high rainfall environments. The populations are located approximately 36 km apart but …

Timing And Magnitude Of Drought Impacts On Carbon Uptake Across A Grassland Biome, Andrew Felton, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Although drought is known to negatively impact grassland functioning, the timing and magnitude of these impacts within a growing season remains unresolved. Previous small-scale assessments indicate grasslands may only respond to drought during narrow periods within a year; however, large-scale assessments are now needed to uncover the general patterns and determinants of this timing. We combined remote sensing datasets of gross primary productivity and weather to assess the timing and magnitude of grassland responses to drought at 5 km² temporal resolution across two expansive ecoregions of the western US Great Plains biome: the C₄-dominated shortgrass steppe and …

A Workshop On Using Nasa Airs Data To Monitor Drought For The U.S. Drought Monitor, Alireza Farahmand,, Sharon Ray, Heidar Thrastarson, Stephen Licata, Stephanie Granger, Brian Fuchs

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent studies indicate that drought indicators based on near-surface air relative humidity (RH), air temperature (T), and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite can detect the onset of drought earlier than other drought indicators, specifically standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is widely used for drought onset detection. A recent study showed that standardized relative humidity index (SRHI) can detect drought signals earlier than SPI (Farahmand et al. 2015). Relative humidity is a climate variable defined as the ratio of air vapor pressure to saturated vapor pressure. Precipitation and relative …

Future Colorado River Basin Drought And Surplus, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The …

Getting Ahead Of Flash Drought: From Early Warning To Early Action, Jason A. Otkin, Molly Woloszyn, Hailan Wang, Mark D. Svoboda, Marina Skumanich, Roger Pulwarty, Joel Lisonbee, Andrew Hoell, Mike Hobbins, Tonya Haigh, Amanda E. Cravens

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational …

Changes In Western U.S. Streamflow Extremes Under Climate Change, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

We are analyzing streamflow extremes in Western U.S. rivers due to climate change. Global warming causes natural disasters to reach extreme points and affects river volumes, snowfall, and precipitation amounts. We analyze the data for 17 stations in the Colorado River Basin, whose rivers provide Southern California’s drinking water supply. Disruptions in streamflow due to climate change affect the region’s water availability and make it difficult to predict future trends. We compared historical streamflow data to eight possible climate scenarios. The different scenarios are Warm Dry, Cool Wet, Average, and Other at emission levels of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. First, …

Precipitation Is A Strong Predictor Of Airborne Ammonia Levels., Bridger Jorgensen, Casey Olson, Connor Snow

Research on Capitol Hill

USU senior Connor has lived in the Uintah Basin all his life and studies kinesiology. Senior Casey, a Cache Valley native, studies climate science and works at the Utah Climate Center. Junior Bridger, also of Cache Valley, studies nutrition science. They led and funded this project through a student grant. Casey was alarmed by the ammonia data he was collecting at the Climate Center. “I immediately began to wonder how this issue would evolve over the coming decades.” The three teamed up to take a look at how Logan’s record-breaking amount of ammonia in our air is impacting those who …

The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange: A Co-Production Approach To Deliver Climate Resources To User Groups, Ryan J. Longman, Abby G. Frazier, Christian P. Giardina, Elliott W. Parsons, Sierra Mcdaniel

Geography

Drought is a growing threat to hydrological, ecological, agricultural, and socio-cultural systems of the tropics, especially tropical islands of the Pacific where severe droughts can compromise food and water security. Overcoming barriers to knowledge sharing between land managers and researchers is a critical cross-sector strategy for engaging and mitigating or adapting to drought. Here we describe the establishment and functioning of the Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange (PDKE), which provides users with easier access to: (1) sector- and geography-specific climate information; (2) better and more comprehensive information; (3) improved technical assistance; and (4) a more collaborative information-transfer environment through participation in …

California Drought Outlooks Based On Climate Change Models’ Effects On Water Availability, Lauren Lynam, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate model projections (2020–2099) identified as representative as possible future scenarios; Warm Dry RCP 4.5, Average RCP 4.5, Cool Wet RCP 4.5, Other RCP 4.5, Warm Dry RCP 8.5, Average RCP 8.5, Cool Wet RCP 8.5, and Other RCP 8.5. Projected drought deficits (or magnitudes), durations, and intensities are statistically tested against historical values to determine significance of differences between past streamflow …

Drought In The Breadbasket Of America And The Influence Of Oceanic Teleconnections, Grace Campbell

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

From 1980 to 2020, drought events accounted for 11.4% of the billion-dollar disasters in the United States (U.S.) yet caused the second highest total amount in damages at $236.6 billion. With the average cost of a drought being upwards of $9.5 billion, these natural disasters can create serious problems in agriculture. Drought is defined as a period of below average precipitation that causes damage to agriculture and water supply. Previous research has linked drought events in the U.S. Great Plains to oceanic teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, indicating the influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Critical Analysis Of The Value Of Drought Information And Impacts On Land Management And Public Health, Tingting Liu, Kelly Helm Smith, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper reviews previous efforts to assign monetary value to climatic or meteorological information, such as public information on drought, climate, early warning systems, and weather forecast information. Methods and tools that have been explored to examine the benefits of climatic and meteorological information include the avoided cost, contingent valuation, choice experiments, benefit transfer, and descriptive approaches using surveys. The second part of this paper discusses specific considerations related to valuing drought information for public health and the Bureau of Land Management. We found a multitude of connections between drought and the land management and health sectors in the literature. …

Modeling Streamflow Response To Persistent Drought In A Coastal Tropical Mountainous Watershed, Sierra Nevada De Santa Marta, Colombia, Natalia Hoyos, Alexander Correa-Metrio, Steven M. Jepsen, Beverley Wemple, Santiago Valencia, Matthew Marsik, Rubén Doria

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Droughts constitute natural hazards that affect water supply for ecosystems and human livelihoods. In 2013-2016, the Caribbean experienced the worst drought since the 1950s, and climate projections for the southern Caribbean predict less rainfall by the end of the 21st century. We assessed streamflow response to drought for a watershed in the Colombian Caribbean by analyzing the effects of drought length and land cover on streamflow recovery. We generated a calibrated SWAT model and created annual and monthly drought scenarios from rainfall records. We used our model to predict water yield for selected land covers (wet forest, shade coffee, shrub, …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Tropical River Suspended Sediment And Solute Dynamics In Storms During An Extreme Drought, Kathryn E. Clark, James B. Shanley, Martha A. Scholl, Nicolas Perdrial, Julia N. Perdrial, Alain F. Plante, William H. Mcdowell

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Droughts, which can strongly affect both hydrologic and biogeochemical systems, are projected to become more prevalent in the tropics in the future. We assessed the effects of an extreme drought during 2015 on stream water composition in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. We demonstrated that drought base flow in the months leading up to the study was sourced from trade-wind orographic rainfall, suggesting a resistance to the effects of an otherwise extreme drought. In two catchments (Mameyes and Icacos), we sampled a series of four rewetting events that partially alleviated the drought. We collected and analyzed dissolved constituents (major …

Separating Decadal Global Water Cycle Variability From Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, J. T. Reager, M.-H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, R. R. Leben

CCPO Publications

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both …

Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Slides: Water Allocation And Water Markets In Spain, Nuria Hernández-Mora

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenter: Nuria Hernández Mora, Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

22 slides

Slides: The Columbia River Basin, Barbara Cosens

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenter: Barbara Cosens, Professor and Associate Dean of Faculty, University of Idaho College of Law, Waters of the West Interdisciplinary Program

16 slides

Agenda: Coping With Water Scarcity In River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned From Shared Experiences, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Water scarcity is increasingly dominating headlines throughout the world. In the southwestern USA, the looming water shortages on the Colorado River system and the unprecedented drought in California are garnering the greatest attention. Similar stories of scarcity and crisis can be found across the globe, suggesting an opportunity for sharing lessons and innovations. For example, the Colorado River and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin likely can share many lessons, as both systems were over-allocated, feature multiple jurisdictions, face similar climatic risks and drought stresses, and struggle to balance human demands with environmental needs. In this conference we cast our net broadly, exploring …

Slides: Food For Thought: Water Requirements For Social-Ecological Systems, Michael Douglas, Sue Jackson

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenters:

Michael Douglas, University of Western Australia, Charles Darwin University

Sue Jackson, Griffith University

35 slides