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Emily Steinhilber Column: Virginia's Leadership In Flood Resilience, Emily E. Steinhilber

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Simulation Of The Effects Of Photodecay On Long-Term Litter Decay Using Daycent, Maosi Chen, William J. Parton, E. Carol Adair, Shinichi Asao, Melannie D. Hartman, Wei Gao

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Recent studies have found that solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation significantly shifts the mass loss and nitrogen dynamics of plant litter decomposition in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. In this study, we examined the role of photodegradation in litter decomposition by using the DayCent-UV biogeochemical model. DayCent-UV incorporated the following mechanisms related to UV radiation: (1) direct photolysis, (2) facilitation of microbial decomposition via production of labile materials, and (3) microbial inhibition effects. We also allowed maximum photodecay rate of the structural litter pool to vary with litter's initial lignin fraction in the model. We calibrated DayCent-UV with observed ecosystem variables (e.g., …

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …

Canada’S Regional Adaptation Collaboratives And Adaptation Platform: The Importance Of Scaling Up And Scaling Down Climate Change Governance Experiments, Adam Wellstead, Michael Howlett, Sreeja Nair, Jeremy Rayner

Department of Social Sciences Publications

Policy experiments have often been touted as valuable mechanisms for ensuring sustainability transitions and climate change adaptation. However problems exist both in the definition of ‘experiments’, and in their design and realization. While valuable, most experiments examined in the literature to date have been small-scale micro-level deployments or evaluations of policy tools in which the most problematic element revolves around their “scaling-up” or diffusion. The literature on the subject has generally neglected the problems and issues related to another class of experiments in which macro or meso-level initiatives are ‘scaled-down’ to the micro-level. This paper examines a recent effort of …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River-Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity …

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River-Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity …

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River–Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain’S Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Dartmouth Scholarship

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher- variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and …

Holocene Glacial Activity In Barilari Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula, Tracked By Magnetic Mineral Assemblages: Linking Ice, Ocean, And Atmosphere, Brendan Reilly, Carl Natter, Stefanie A. Brachfeld

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We investigate the origin and fate of lithogenic sediments using magnetic mineral assemblages in Barilari Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula (AP) from sediment cores recovered during the Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica (LARISSA) NBP10-01 cruise. To quantify and reconstruct Holocene changes in covarying magnetic mineral assemblages, we adopt an unsupervised mathematical unmixing strategy and apply it to measurements of magnetic susceptibility as a function of increasing temperature. Comparisons of the unmixed end-members with magnetic observations of northwestern AP bedrock and the spatial distribution of magnetic mineral assemblages within the fjord, allow us to identify source regions, including signatures for ‘‘inner bay,’’ …

Influence Of Topography And Human Activity On Apparent In Situ 10be-Derived Erosion Rates In Yunnan, Sw China, Amanda H. Schmidt, Thomas B. Neilson, Paul R. Bierman, Dylan H. Rood, William B. Ouimet, Veronica Sosa Gonzalez

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

In order to understand better if and where erosion rates calculated using in situ 10Be are affected by contemporary changes in land use and attendant deep regolith erosion, we calculated erosion rates using measurements of in situ 10Be in quartz from 52 samples of river sediment collected from three tributaries of the Mekong River (median basin areaD46.5 km2). Erosion rates range from 12 to 209mm kyr-1 with an area-weighted mean of 117±49mm kyr-1 (1 standard deviation) and median of 74mm kyr-1.We observed a decrease in the relative influence of human activity from our steepest and least altered watershed in the …

Influence Of Land Cover Type And The Reliability Of Selected Land Surface Models: A Comparison Of Wrf Version 3.6 Coupled To Clm Version 4.0, Noah-Mp, And The Bucket Hydrology, Andrew J. Kalin

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this study, the validity of 3 LSMs (Community Land Model version 4.0, Noah-MP and the Budyko Bucket Hydrology model [henceforth referred to as ‘Bucket model’]) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6), was examined in an effort to show the associated strengths and weaknesses of each LSM. This objective was completed by first, developing expected results based on a simple surface energy budget calculation, and by later comparing model output to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, which serve as gridded observed values of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output …

A Stochastic Model For Landscape Patterns Of Biodiversity, Jayme A. Prevedello, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Jean Paul Metzger

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Many factors have been proposed to affect biodiversity patterns across landscapes, including patch area, patch isolation, edge distances, and matrix quality, but existing models emphasize only one or two of these factors at a time. Here we introduce a synthetic but simple individual-based model that generates realistic patterns of species richness and density as a function of landscape structure. In this model, we simulated the stochastic placement of home ranges in landscapes, thus combining features of existing random placement and mid-domain effect models. As such, the model allows investigation of whether and how geometric constraints on home range placement of …

Version 1.3 Aim Sofie Measured Methane (Ch4): Validation And Seasonal Climatology, P. P. Rong, J. M. Russell Iii, B. T. Marshall, D. E. Siskind, M. E. Hervig, L. L. Gordley, P. F. Bernath, K. A. Walker

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The V1.3 methane (CH₄) measured by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument is validated in the vertical range of ~25–70 km. The random error for SOFIE CH₄ is ~0.1–1% up to ~50 km and degrades to ~9% at ∼ 70 km. The systematic error remains at ~4% throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Comparisons with CH₄ data taken by the SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) show an agreement within ~15% in the altitude range ~30–60 …

An Assessment Of The Radiative Effects Of Ice Supersaturation Based On In Situ Observations, Xiaoxiao Tan, Yi Huang, Minghui Diao, Aaron Bansemer, Mark Zondlo, Joshua Digangi, Rainer Volkamer, Yongyun Hu

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

We use aircraft observations combined with the reanalysis data to investigate the radiative effects of ice supersaturation (ISS). Our results show that although the excess water vapor over ice saturation itself has relatively small radiative effects, mistaking it as ice crystals in climate models would lead to considerable impacts: on average, +2.49 W/m2 change in the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, −2.7 W/m2 change in surface radiation, and 1.47 K/d change in heating rates. The radiative effects of ISS generally increase with the magnitudes of supersaturation. However, there is a strong dependence on the preexisting ice water path, which …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

Agenda: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment, The Wilderness Society, Protect Our Winters

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

In partnership with the Getches-Wilkinson Center, join The Wilderness Society and Protect Our Winters for an interactive presentation about energy development and climate impacts on public lands.

This event was held on Wednesday, October 12, 2016, 5:30 - 7:30 p.m., in the University of Colorado Law School, Wolf Law Building, Wittemyer Courtroom.

Slides: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, Jim Ramey, Lindsay Bourgoine

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

Presenters:

Jim Ramey, The Wilderness Society

Lindsay Bourgoine, Protect Our Winters

56 slides

Climatic Warming Destabilizes Forest Ant Communities, Sarah E. Diamond, Lauren M. Nichols, Shannon L. Pelini, Clint A. Penick, Grace W. Barber, Sara Helms Cahan, Robert R. Dunn, Aaron M. Ellison, Nathan J. Sanders, Nicholas J. Gotelli

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset …

Variation Of Organic Matter Quantity And Quality In Streams At Critical Zone Observatory Watersheds, Matthew P. Miller, Elizabeth W. Boyer, Diane M. Mcknight, Michael G. Brown, Rachel S. Gabor, Carolyn T. Hunsaker, Lidiia Iavorivska, Shreeram Inamdar, Dale W. Johnson, Louis A. Kaplan, Henry Lin, William H. Mcdowell, Julia N. Perdrial

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

The quantity and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface waters influence ecosystem processes and anthropogenic use of freshwater. However, despite the importance of understanding spatial and temporal patterns in DOM, measures of DOM quality are not routinely included as part of large-scale ecosystem monitoring programs and variations in analytical procedures can introduce artifacts. In this study, we used consistent sampling and analytical methods to meet the objective of defining variability in DOM quantity and quality and other measures of water quality in streamflow issuing from small forested watersheds located within five Critical Zone Observatory sites representing contrasting …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2016, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Crystal J. Stiles

HPRCC Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlight....................3

Partnership spotlight.............3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape- Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

NDMC welcome two to team ...... 2

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading ................ 3

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer ........... 5

Drought management framework for Africa approved...................... 7

MENA region update................... 9

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor ........ 10

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience ................. 13

Tournament tackles hazards.....14

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions ......... 17

Dry Horizons launches ............. 17

Urban Heat Islands As Viewed By Microwave Radiometers And Thermal Time Indices, Lan H. Nguyen, Geoffrey M. Henebry

GSCE Faculty Publications

Urban heat islands (UHIs) have been long studied using both ground-based observations of air temperature and remotely sensed thermal infrared (TIR) data. While ground-based observations lack spatial detail even in the occasional “dense” urban network, skin temperature retrievals using TIR data have lower temporal coverage due to revisit frequency, limited swath width, and cloud cover. Algorithms have recently been developed to retrieve near-surface air temperatures using microwave radiometer data, which enables characterization of UHIs in metropolitan areas, major conurbations, and global megacities at regional to continental scales using temporally denser time series than those that have been available from TIR …

Climate Change Impacts On Freshwater Wetland Hydrology And Vegetation Cover Cycling Along A Regional Aridity Gradient, Philip A. Fay, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Jennifer H. Olker, W. Carter Johnson

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients. The hydrology, productivity, and ecosystem services from freshwater wetlands depend on their future water balance. We simulated the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of wetland complexes in the North American Prairie Pothole Region with the WETLANDSCAPE model. Simulations for 63 precipitation × temperature combinations spanning 6°C warming and −20% to +20% annual precipitation change at 19 locations along a mid-continental aridity gradient showed that aridity explained up to 99% of the variation in wetland stage and hydroperiod …

Coastal Groundwater Watch: A Citizen Science Project - Report No. 477, Alex Manda, Thomas Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The goals of this study were to utilize citizen scientists in groundwater research in a coastal community where groundwater plays a large role in sustainable water resources management, and assess the extent of groundwater and marine inundation in response to future sea-level rise scenarios. A total of 7 citizen scientists participated in the study by measuring water levels from 15 groundwater monitoring wells using water level meters once a week over a 10-week period. Automated water level loggers were deployed in three of the same wells to assess the quality of the data collected by the citizen scientists. Additional water …

Future Changes In Propagating And Non-Propagating Diurnal Rainfall Over East Asia, Wan-Ru Huang, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The characteristics of diurnal rainfall in the East Asian continent consist of a propagating regime over the Yangtze River and a non-propagating regime in southeast China. Simulations of these two diurnal rainfall regimes by 18 CMIP5 models were evaluated from the historical experiment of 1981–2005. The evaluation led to the identification of one model, the CMCC-CM that replicated the key characteristics of diurnal rainfall regimes including the propagation of moisture convergence. Using the CMCC-CM to assess the future (2076–2100) change of diurnal evolution and propagation projected by the RCP4.5 experiment, it was found that propagating diurnal rainfall will enhance and …

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Opportunities For Biodiversity Gains Under The World's Largest Reforestation Programme, Fangyuan Hua, Xiaoyang Wang, Xinlei Zheng, Brendan Fisher, Lin Wang, Jianguo Zhu, Ya Tang, Douglas W. Yu, David S. Wilcove

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Reforestation is a critical means of addressing the environmental and social problems of deforestation. China's Grain-for-Green Program (GFGP) is the world's largest reforestation scheme. Here we provide the first nationwide assessment of the tree composition of GFGP forests and the first combined ecological and economic study aimed at understanding GFGP's biodiversity implications. Across China, GFGP forests are overwhelmingly monocultures or compositionally simple mixed forests. Focusing on birds and bees in Sichuan Province, we find that GFGP reforestation results in modest gains (via mixed forest) and losses (via monocultures) of bird diversity, along with major losses of bee diversity. Moreover, all …

Tibetan Plateau Geladaindong Black Carbon Ice Core Record (1843–1982): Recent Increases Due To Higher Emissions And Lower Snow Accumulation, Matthew Jenkins, Susan Kaspari, Kang Shi-Chang, Bjorn Grigholm, Paul A. Mayewski

Student Published Works

Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC from the central Tibetan Plateau. Post 1940 the record is characterized by an increased occurrence of years with above average BC, and the highest BC values of the record. The BC increase in recent decades is likely caused by a combination of increased emissions from regional BC sources, and a reduction in snow accumulation. Guoqu glacier …

Zirconium-Catalyzed Alkene Hydrophosphination And Dehydrocoupling With An Air-Stable, Fluorescent Primary Phosphine, Christine A. Bange, Neil T. Mucha, Morgan E. Cousins, Abigail C. Gehsmann, Anna Singer, Taylor Truax, Lee J. Higham

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Zirconium-catalyzed alkene hydrophosphination and dehydrocoupling with an air-stable, fluorescent primary phosphine 8-[(4-phosphino)phenyl]-4,4-dimethyl-1,3,5,7-tetramethyl-2,6-diethyl- 4-bora-3a,4a-diaza-s-indacene furnishes fluorescent phosphine products. Hydrophosphination of the fluorescent phosphine produces products with a complete selectivity for the secondary product. A key intermediate in catalysis, a zirconium phosphido compound, was isolated.