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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

On The Links Between Sea Level And Temperature Variations In The Chesapeake Bay And The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke Jan 2024

On The Links Between Sea Level And Temperature Variations In The Chesapeake Bay And The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Recent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used …


The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou Jan 2023

The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou

CCPO Publications

Coastal polynyas in the Ross Sea are important source regions of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) – the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water that supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation. Here, the response of sea ice production and HSSW formation to synoptic-scale and mesoscale cyclones was investigated for the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model targeted on the Ross Sea. When synoptic-scale cyclones prevailed over RISP, sea ice production (SIP) increased rapidly by 20 %–30 % over the entire RISP. During the passage of mesoscale cyclones, SIP increased by about 2 times over …


Seasonal Variations In Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions Into The Ross Sea Continental Shelf, Yufei Wang, Meng Zhou, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman Jan 2023

Seasonal Variations In Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions Into The Ross Sea Continental Shelf, Yufei Wang, Meng Zhou, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Intrusions of the warm and nutrient-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) across the Ross Sea shelf break play an important role in providing heat for ice shelf basal melting and setting the physical environment for biochemical processes. Several mechanisms driving CDW intrusions into the Ross Sea were proposed such as mesoscale eddies, tidal rectification, and interactions between Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) and topographic features. The seasonal variations in the poleward transport of CDW are investigated using ERA-Interim wind data and a Ross Sea circulation model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) between September 1999 and September 2014. The analyses …


Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer Jan 2023

Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades …


Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann Jan 2023

Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Rising water temperatures along the northeastern U.S. continental shelf have resulted in an offshore range shift of the Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima to waters still occupied by ocean quahogs Arctica islandica. Fishers presently are prohibited from landing both Atlantic surfclams and ocean quahogs in the same catch, thus limiting fishing to locations where the target species can be sorted on deck. Wind energy development on and around the fishing grounds will further restrict the fishery. A spatially explicit model of the Atlantic surfclam fishery (Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator) has the ability to simulate the consequences of fishery displacement …


Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist Jan 2023

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr−1 since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …


A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer Sep 2022

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …


High-Tide Floods And Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers On The Us West Coast, Christopher G. Piecuch, Sloan Coats, Sönke Dangendorf, Felix W. Landerer, J. T. Reager, Philip R. Thompson, Thomas Wahl Jan 2022

High-Tide Floods And Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers On The Us West Coast, Christopher G. Piecuch, Sloan Coats, Sönke Dangendorf, Felix W. Landerer, J. T. Reager, Philip R. Thompson, Thomas Wahl

CCPO Publications

Amospheric rivers (ARs) effect inland hydrological impacts related to extreme precipitation. However, little is known about the possible coastal hazards associated with these storms. Here we elucidate high-tide floods (HTFs) and storm surges during ARs through a statistical analysis of data from the US West Coast during 1980-2016. HTFs and landfalling ARs co-occur more often than expected from random chance. Between 10%-63% of HTFs coincide with landfalling ARs, depending on location. However, only 2%-15% of ARs coincide with HTFs, suggesting that ARs typically must co-occur with anomalously high tides or mean sea levels to cause HTFs. Storm surges during ARs …


Drivers Of 20th Century Sea-Level Change In Southern New Zealand Determined From Proxy And Instrumental Records, Ed Garrett, W. Roland Gehrels, Bruce W. Hayward, Rewi Newnham, Maria J. Gehrels, Craig J. Morey, Sönke Dangendorf Jan 2022

Drivers Of 20th Century Sea-Level Change In Southern New Zealand Determined From Proxy And Instrumental Records, Ed Garrett, W. Roland Gehrels, Bruce W. Hayward, Rewi Newnham, Maria J. Gehrels, Craig J. Morey, Sönke Dangendorf

CCPO Publications

In this paper we present new proxy-based sea-level reconstructions for southern New Zealand spanning the last millennium. These palaeo sea-level records usefully complement sparse Southern Hemisphere proxy and tide-gauge sea-level datasets and, in combination with instrumental observations, can test hypotheses about the drivers of 20th century global sea-level change, including land-based ice melt and regional sterodynamics. We develop sea-level transfer functions from regional datasets of salt-marsh foraminifera to establish a new proxy-based sea-level record at Mokomoko Inlet, at the southern tip of the South Island, and to improve the previously published sea-level reconstruction at Pounawea, located about 110 km to …


The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery And Offshore Wind Energy Development: 1. Model Development And Verification, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Andrew M. Scheld, Sarah Borsetti, Jennifer Beckensteiner, Eileen E. Hofmann Jan 2022

The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery And Offshore Wind Energy Development: 1. Model Development And Verification, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Andrew M. Scheld, Sarah Borsetti, Jennifer Beckensteiner, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Competing pressures imposed by climate-related warming and offshore development have created a need for quantitative approaches that anticipate fisheries responses to these challenges. This study used a spatially explicit, ecological-economic agent-based model integrating dynamics associated with Atlantic surfclam stock biology, decision-making behavior of fishing vessel captains, and fishing fleet behavior to simulate stock biomass, and fishing vessel catch, effort and landings. Simulations were implemented using contemporary Atlantic surfclam stock distributions and characteristics of the surfclam fishing fleet. Simulated distribution of fishable surfclam biomass was determined by a spatially varying mortality rate, fishing by the fleet was controlled by captain decisions …


Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid‐Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Zihao Bian, Hong-Yi Li, Eileen E. Hofmann Jan 2021

Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid‐Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Zihao Bian, Hong-Yi Li, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

The lateral transport and degassing of carbon in riverine ecosystems is difficult to quantify on large spatial and long temporal scales due to the relatively poor representation of carbon processes in many models. Here, we coupled a scale‐adaptive hydrological model with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to simulate key riverine carbon processes across the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Watersheds from 1900 to 2015. Our results suggest that throughout this time period riverine CO2 degassing and lateral dissolved inorganic carbon fluxes to the coastal ocean contribute nearly equally to the total riverine carbon outputs (mean ± standard deviation: 886 ± …


Measuring Winds From Space To Reduce The Uncertainty In The Southern Ocean Carbon Fluxes: Science Requirements And Proposed Mission, Joellen L. Russell, David G. Long, Paul Chang, Madeline Cowell, Enrique Curchitser, Michael S. Dinniman, Charles Fellows, Paul Goodman, Eileen Hofmann, Zorana Jelenak, John Klinck, John P. Krasting, Nicole Suzanne Lovenduski, Marcus Lofverstrom, Matthew R. Mazloff, Shelley Petroy, Anjani Polit, Ernesto Rodriguez, Oscar Schofield, Ad Stoffelen, Ronald J. Stouffer, Rik Wanninkhof, Carl Weimer, Xubin Zeng Jan 2021

Measuring Winds From Space To Reduce The Uncertainty In The Southern Ocean Carbon Fluxes: Science Requirements And Proposed Mission, Joellen L. Russell, David G. Long, Paul Chang, Madeline Cowell, Enrique Curchitser, Michael S. Dinniman, Charles Fellows, Paul Goodman, Eileen Hofmann, Zorana Jelenak, John Klinck, John P. Krasting, Nicole Suzanne Lovenduski, Marcus Lofverstrom, Matthew R. Mazloff, Shelley Petroy, Anjani Polit, Ernesto Rodriguez, Oscar Schofield, Ad Stoffelen, Ronald J. Stouffer, Rik Wanninkhof, Carl Weimer, Xubin Zeng

CCPO Publications

Strong winds in Southern Ocean storms drive air-sea carbon and heat fluxes. These fluxes are integral to the global climate system and the wind speeds that drive them are increasing. The current scatterometer constellation measuring vector winds remotely undersamples these storms and the higher winds within them, leading to potentially large biases in Southern Ocean wind reanalyses and the fluxes that derive from them. This observing system design study addresses these issues in two ways. First, we describe an addition to the scatterometer constellation, called Southern Ocean Storms -- Zephyr, to increase the frequency of independent observations, better constraining high …


Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long‐Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Eileen E. Hofmann, Rongting Xu, Bowen Zhang Jan 2021

Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long‐Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Eileen E. Hofmann, Rongting Xu, Bowen Zhang

CCPO Publications

Excessive nutrient inputs from land, particularly nitrogen (N), have been found to increase the occurrence of hypoxia and harmful algal blooms in coastal ecosystems. To identify the main contributors of increased N loading and evaluate the efficacy of water pollution control policies, it is essential to quantify and attribute the long‐term changes in riverine N export. Here, we use a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial–aquatic interface model to examine how multiple environmental factors may have affected N export from the Chesapeake Bay watershed since 1900. These factors include changes in climate, carbon dioxide, land use, and N inputs (i.e., atmospheric N deposition, animal …


Eddy-Driven Transport Of Particulate Organic Carbon-Rich Coastal Water Off The West Antarctic Peninsula, Renato M. Castelao, Michael S. Dinniman, Caitlin M. Amos, John M. Klinck, Patricia M. Medeiros Jan 2021

Eddy-Driven Transport Of Particulate Organic Carbon-Rich Coastal Water Off The West Antarctic Peninsula, Renato M. Castelao, Michael S. Dinniman, Caitlin M. Amos, John M. Klinck, Patricia M. Medeiros

CCPO Publications

The Southern Ocean is characterized by high eddy activity and high particulate organic carbon (POC) content during summer, especially near Antarctica. Because it encircles the globe, it provides a pathway for inter‐basin exchange. Here, we use satellite observations and a high‐resolution ocean model to quantify offshore transport of coastal water rich in POC off the West Antarctic Peninsula. We show that nonlinear cyclonic eddies generated near the coast often trap coastal water rich in POC during formation before propagating offshore. As a result, cyclones found offshore that were generated near the coast have on average higher POC content in their …


Global Connectivity Of Southern Ocean Ecosystems, Eugene J. Murphy, Nadine M. Johnston, Eileen E. Hofmann, Richard A. Phillips, Jennifer A. Jackson, Andrew J. Constable, Sian F. Henley, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Rowan Trebilco, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Geraint A. Tarling, Ryan A. Saunders, David K.A. Barnes, Daniel P. Costa, Stuart P. Corney, Ceridwen I. Fraser, Juan Höfer, Kevin A. Hughes, Chester J. Sands, Sally E. Thorpe, Philip N. Trathan, José C. Xavier Jan 2021

Global Connectivity Of Southern Ocean Ecosystems, Eugene J. Murphy, Nadine M. Johnston, Eileen E. Hofmann, Richard A. Phillips, Jennifer A. Jackson, Andrew J. Constable, Sian F. Henley, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Rowan Trebilco, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Geraint A. Tarling, Ryan A. Saunders, David K.A. Barnes, Daniel P. Costa, Stuart P. Corney, Ceridwen I. Fraser, Juan Höfer, Kevin A. Hughes, Chester J. Sands, Sally E. Thorpe, Philip N. Trathan, José C. Xavier

CCPO Publications

Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important. Processes in the Antarctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and the Southern Ocean directly influence global atmospheric and oceanic systems. Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has also been shown to have global importance. In contrast, ocean ecological processes are often seen as largely separate from the rest of the global system. In this paper, we consider the degree of ecological connectivity at different trophic levels, linking Southern Ocean ecosystems with the global ocean, and their importance not only for the regional ecosystem but also the wider Earth system. We also consider the human system connections, including the role of …


Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Late 21st Century U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Activity, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Morris A. Bender, Robert E. Tuleya Jan 2021

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Late 21st Century U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Activity, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Morris A. Bender, Robert E. Tuleya

CCPO Publications

U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity was projected for late 21st century conditions using a two-step dynamical downscaling framework. A regional atmospheric model, run for 27 seasons, generated tropical storm cases. Each storm case was re-simulated (up to 15 days) using the higher resolution GFDL hurricane model. Thirteen CMIP3 or CMIP5 modeled climate change projections were explored as scenarios. Robustness of projections was assessed using statistical significance tests and comparing the sign of changes derived from different models. The proportion of TCs (tropical storms and hurricanes) making U.S. landfall increases for the warming scenarios (by order 50% or more). For …


A Pre-Industrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along The Atlantic Coast Of North America, W. R. Gehrels, Sönke Dangendorf, N. L. M. Barlow, M. H. Saher, A. J. Long, P. L. Woodworth, C. G. Piecuch, K. Berk Feb 2020

A Pre-Industrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along The Atlantic Coast Of North America, W. R. Gehrels, Sönke Dangendorf, N. L. M. Barlow, M. H. Saher, A. J. Long, P. L. Woodworth, C. G. Piecuch, K. Berk

CCPO Publications

The Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras has been proposed as a “hotspot” of late 20th century sea‐level rise. Here we test, using salt‐marsh proxy sea‐level records, if this coast experienced enhanced sea‐level rise over earlier multidecadal‐centennial periods. While we find in agreement with previous studies that 20th century rates of sea‐level change were higher compared to rates during preceding centuries, rates of 18th century sea‐level rise were only slightly lower, suggesting that the “hotspot” is a reoccurring feature for at least three centuries. Proxy sea‐level records from North America (Iceland) are negatively (positively) correlated with centennial …


Mean Sea Level Changes In The Southwestern Baltic Sea Over The Last 190 Years, Jessica Kelln, Sönke Dangendorf, Ulf Gräwe, Holger Steffen, Justus Patzke, Jürgen Jensen Jan 2020

Mean Sea Level Changes In The Southwestern Baltic Sea Over The Last 190 Years, Jessica Kelln, Sönke Dangendorf, Ulf Gräwe, Holger Steffen, Justus Patzke, Jürgen Jensen

CCPO Publications

(First paragraph) Over the 20th century a global mean sea level (GMSL) rise of about 1.3 to 2 mm/yr could be observed and it is projected to further accelerate throughout the 21st century (Church and White 2006, Hay et al., 2015; Dangendorf et al., 2017). However, GMSL rise is neither temporally nor spatially uniform. Because of a number of different factors (e.g. mass changes and gravitational effects due to melting ice sheets/glaciers, expanding/contracting volume due to temperature and salinity fluctuations, ocean circulation changes, atmospheric forcing), regional mean sea level (MSL) trends can vary significantly from the global average. In order …


Constraining An Ocean Model Under Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using A Gravity‐Derived Bathymetry, Romain Millan, Pierre St-Laurent, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl Jan 2020

Constraining An Ocean Model Under Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using A Gravity‐Derived Bathymetry, Romain Millan, Pierre St-Laurent, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl

CCPO Publications

Getz Ice Shelf, the largest producer of ice shelf meltwater in Antarctica, buttresses glaciers that hold enough ice to raise sea level by 22 cm. We present a new bathymetry of its sub‐ice shelf cavity using a three‐dimensional inversion of airborne gravity data constrained by multibeam bathymetry at sea and a reconstruction of the bedrock from mass conservation on land. The new bathymetry is deeper than previously estimated with differences exceeding 500 m in a number of regions. When incorporated into an ocean model, it yields a better description of the spatial distribution of ice shelf melt, specifically along glacier …


Vertical Processes And Resolution Impact Ice Shelf Basal Melting: A Multi-Model Study, David E. Gwyther, Kazuya Kusahara, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi Jan 2020

Vertical Processes And Resolution Impact Ice Shelf Basal Melting: A Multi-Model Study, David E. Gwyther, Kazuya Kusahara, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi

CCPO Publications

Understanding ice shelf–ocean interaction is fundamental to projecting the Antarctic ice sheet response to a warming climate. Numerical ice shelf–ocean models are a powerful tool for simulating this interaction, yet are limited by inherent model weaknesses and scarce observations, leading to parameterisations that are unverified and unvalidated below ice shelves. We explore how different models simulate ice shelf–ocean interaction using the 2nd Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) framework. Vertical discretisation and resolution of the ocean model are shown to have a significant effect on ice shelf basal melt rate, through differences in the distribution of meltwater fluxes and the …


20th Century Multivariate Indian Ocean Regional Sea Level Reconstruction, Praveen Kumar, Benjamin Hamlington, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Weiqing Han, Phillip Thompson Jan 2020

20th Century Multivariate Indian Ocean Regional Sea Level Reconstruction, Praveen Kumar, Benjamin Hamlington, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Weiqing Han, Phillip Thompson

CCPO Publications

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastlines, Indian Ocean sea level variability over the past century is poorly understood relative to other ocean basins primarily, due to the short and sparse observational records. In an attempt to overcome the limitations imposed by the lack of adequate observations, we have produced a 20th century Indian Ocean sea level reconstruction product using a new multivariate reconstruction technique. This technique uses sea level pressure and sea surface temperature in addition to sea level data to help constrain basin‐wide sea level variability by (1) the removal of large spurious …


Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application To Chesapeake And Delaware Bays, Sergio R. Signorini, Antonio Mannino, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, John Wilkin, Aboozar Tabatabai, Raymond G. Najjar, Eileen E. Hofmann, Fei Da, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao Jun 2019

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application To Chesapeake And Delaware Bays, Sergio R. Signorini, Antonio Mannino, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, John Wilkin, Aboozar Tabatabai, Raymond G. Najjar, Eileen E. Hofmann, Fei Da, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao

CCPO Publications

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by …


Modeling Ocean Eddies On Antarctica's Cold Water Continental Shelves And Their Effects On Ice Shelf Basal Melting, Stefanie L. Mack, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy, Laurence Padman Jan 2019

Modeling Ocean Eddies On Antarctica's Cold Water Continental Shelves And Their Effects On Ice Shelf Basal Melting, Stefanie L. Mack, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy, Laurence Padman

CCPO Publications

Changes in the rate of ocean‐driven basal melting of Antarctica's ice shelves can alter the rate at which the grounded ice sheet loses mass and contributes to sea level change. Melt rates depend on the inflow of ocean heat, which occurs through steady circulation and eddy fluxes. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of eddy fluxes for ice shelves affected by relatively warm intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water. However, ice shelves on cold water continental shelves primarily melt from dense shelf water near the grounding line and from light surface water at the ice shelf front. Eddy effects on basal …


Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan Jan 2019

Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan

CCPO Publications

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic …


Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang Jan 2019

Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang

CCPO Publications

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our very limited capacity to predict SL change on coastal scales, over various timescales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of …


Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer Jan 2019

Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Recent studies appear to show that a "hot spot" for accelerated sea level rise (SLR) shifted around 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and south Florida. The role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in this shift was thus investigated. The findings show that in the ~15–20 years before, SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS. After 2010, however, SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Thermosteric effects seen in altimeter data indicate a warming trend south of …


Modeling The Seasonal Cycle Of Iron And Carbon Fluxes In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, H. Oliver, M. S. Dinniman, S. E. Stammerjohn Jan 2019

Modeling The Seasonal Cycle Of Iron And Carbon Fluxes In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, H. Oliver, M. S. Dinniman, S. E. Stammerjohn

CCPO Publications

The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) is distinguished by having the highest net primary production per unit area in the coastal Antarctic. Recent studies have related this high productivity to the presence of fast-melting ice shelves, but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. In this study we describe the first numerical model of the ASP to represent explicitly the ocean-ice interactions, nitrogen and iron cycles, and the coastal circulation at high resolution. The study focuses on the seasonal cycle of iron and carbon, and the results are broadly consistent with field observations collected during the summer of 2010–2011. The simulated …


Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw Feb 2018

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …


Effects Of Projected Changes In Wind, Atmospheric Temperature, And Freshwater Inflow On The Ross Sea, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Walker O. Smith Jr. Feb 2018

Effects Of Projected Changes In Wind, Atmospheric Temperature, And Freshwater Inflow On The Ross Sea, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Walker O. Smith Jr.

CCPO Publications

A 5-km horizontal resolution regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea is used to examine the effects of changes in wind strength, air temperature, and increased meltwater input on the formation of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), on-shelf transport and vertical mixing of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and its transformation into modified CDW (MCDW), and basal melt of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). A 20% increase in wind speed, with no other atmospheric changes, reduced summer sea ice minimum area by 20%, opposite the observed trend of the past three decades. Increased winds with spatially uniform, reduced atmospheric temperatures …


Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington Jan 2018

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …