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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings (iii) what is new (iv) how the book is organized (v) advice on using the book, and (vi) who should read the book.
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with doing the best for oneself. The research comes from many fields, but primarily from education, sports, the performing arts,and psychology. The results have been consistent, clear-cut, and surprising: competition typically results in less creativity, poorer performance, and reduced satisfaction.
On The Interpretation Of Factor Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Peer Soelberg
On The Interpretation Of Factor Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Peer Soelberg
J. Scott Armstrong
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two-thirds of the papers provide no measure of reliability. In fact, some papers did not even provide sufficient information to allow for replication. To improve the current situation some …
Evidence On The Value Of Strategic Planning In Marketing: How Much Planning Should A Marketing Planner Plan?, J. Scott Armstrong, David J. Reibstein
Evidence On The Value Of Strategic Planning In Marketing: How Much Planning Should A Marketing Planner Plan?, J. Scott Armstrong, David J. Reibstein
J. Scott Armstrong
What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This paper reviews the evidence. This includes two tests of face validity. First, we use the market test: Are formal procedures used for marketing planning? Next, we examine expert prescriptions: What do they say is the best way to plan? More important than face validity, however, are tests of construct or predictive validity: What empirical evidence exists on the relative value of formal and informal approaches to marketing planning? The paper concludes with suggestions on the types of research that would be most useful for measuring …
A Comparative Study Of Methods For Long-Range Market Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael C. Grohman
A Comparative Study Of Methods For Long-Range Market Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael C. Grohman
J. Scott Armstrong
The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air …
Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
J. Scott Armstrong
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct validity, sensitivity to small changes, protection against outliers, and their relationship to decision making. The results lead us to recommend the Geometric Mean of the Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE) when the task involves calibrating a model for a set of time series. The GMRAE compares the absolute error of a given method to that from the random walk forecast. For selecting the most accurate methods, we recommend the Median RAE (MdRAE)when …
The Value Of Formal Planning For Strategic Decisions: Review Of Empirical Research, J. Scott Armstrong
The Value Of Formal Planning For Strategic Decisions: Review Of Empirical Research, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is, use an explicit approach for setting objectives, generating strategies, evaluating strategies, monitoring results, and obtaining commitment. To determine whether these findings could be applied to strategic decision making in organizations, a review was made of all published field research on the evaluation of formal planning. Formal planning was superior in 10 of the 15 comparisons drawn from 12 studies, while informal planning was superior in only two comparisons. Although this research did not provide sufficient information on the use of various aspects of the planning …