Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis And Environmental Modeling For The Everglades, Matteo Convertino, Christy Foran, Jeffrey Keisler, Lynn Scarlett, Andrew Loschiavo, Greg Kiker, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Connecting Big Data With Big Decisions: Ideas For Synthesizing Analytics And Decision Analysis, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

This paper describes an approach to connect decision analysis models with outputs of analytic methods applied to various types of big data. Decision analysis models focus on issues of concern to a decision maker and incorporate use of a range of methods and axioms to develop insights about what the decision maker should do. In particular, decision analysis models typically use subjective judgments from the decision maker to describe beliefs about the likelihood of events and the desirability of outcomes. In order for human judgments to be improved by the availability of large amounts of data and processing power, it …

Additivity Of Information Value In Two-Act Linear Loss Decisions With Normal Priors, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is super-additive in value. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the canonical problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.

Technical Note: Comparative Static Analysis Of Information Value In A Canonical Decision Problem, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

To gain insight into the behavior of the value of information, this paper identifies specific rules for a canonical decision problem: the two-act linear loss decision with normal prior probability distributions. Conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information increases when mean and standard deviation are both linear functions of an exogenous variable. A variety of richer decision problems can be adapted to the problem, so that the general results obtained here can be immediately applied to understand drivers of information value.

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler

The quality and value of an area depend primarily on what is found within its designated boundaries. To determine the value of such areas in terms of boundaries, we have developed a methodology for integrating multi-attribute utility functions with spatial analysis so that desirable, or appropriate, boundaries can be determined on the basis of the goals and objectives for the park. The key to successful evaluation is the development of measures for what decision makers value, rather than merely using what is easily measured. In a detailed example for planning of national parks, the fundamental objectives are conservation and societal …