Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Examining The Impact Of Synoptic-Scale Waves On Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability From An Ensemble Forecast Perspective, Michael E. Main

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events are characterized by rapid warming of the polar regions at 10 hPa and are accompanied by a reversal of the 10-hPa zonal-mean zonal wind at 60˚N from westerly to easterly. Following an SSW event, stratospheric thermal and momentum anomalies can progress downward and linger near the tropopause for up to 60 days. These anomalies have major impacts on tropospheric sensible weather including increased likelihood of cold air outbreaks and heavy precipitation events. SSW events are largely forced by upward propagation of planetary-scale Rossby waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Synoptic-scale waves can contribute …