Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Comparison Of Multidecadal Variability In Climate Reanalyses And Global Models, Andrew A. Westgate

Theses and Dissertations

Superimposed on the linear upward trend of observed global surface air temperature anomalies since the late nineteenth century is, what appears to be, a multidecadal undulation. However, this undulation is either muted or virtually absent in both the previous and current generations of the state-of-the-art climate models used to not only simulate past climates but also predict future climates. One possibility is that this signal is due to a series of complex responses to the global climate forcing; an alternative is that this signal is contained within the internal variability and teleconnected via atmospheric channels. Either way, the existential threat …

Analytic Approximations Of Higher Order Moments In Terms Of Lower Order Moments, Sven Detlef Bergmann

Theses and Dissertations

The Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) model uses the sum of two normal probability density function (pdf) components to represent subgrid variability within a single grid layer of an atmospheric model. This binormal approach, while computationally efficient, restricts the model’s ability to capture the full spectrum of potential shapes encountered inreal-world atmospheric data.

This thesis proposes to introduce a third normal pdf component strategically positioned between the existing two, significantly enhancing the model’s representational flexibility. This trinormal representation allows for a wider range of grid-layer shapes while permitting analytic solutions for certain higher order moments.

The core of this …

An Assessment Of The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’S Ability To Resolve The Great Lakes Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer And Lake-Breeze Front, Collin Paul Deyoung

Theses and Dissertations

We determined the ability of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) mesoscale model to predict the lake-breeze front’s structure and faithfully represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) behind it. First, two field missions were completed during the 2023 warm season over Lake Michigan to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of the MABL and validate HRRR forecasts. We found the Lake Michigan MABL was characterized by minimal thermodynamic and kinematic variability on diurnal time scales, regardless of the stability or flow regime. Additionally, the HRRR was able to resolve MABL thermodynamic structures effectively but underestimated the vertical temperature distribution, leading to a …

Predictability Of The Overland Reintensification Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007), Ariel Tickner-Ernst

Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclones (TC) typically decrease in intensity upon interacting with land because of increased surface roughness and decreased surface evaporation. However, several studies have documented cases in which TCs maintain their intensity or even intensify over land within non- or weakly baroclinic environments. Yet, our understanding of the precise physical processes that support maintenance or intensification over land in non- or weakly baroclinic environments remains limited, and the predictive skill for these outcomes has yet to be quantified.

We begin this process by quantifying the predictive skill and forecast uncertainty of the overland intensification of North Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin …

Decadal Climate Variability In Mesoscale-Resolving Coupled Models, Ilijana Mastilovic

Theses and Dissertations

Most of our knowledge about the causes of 20th-century climate change comes from simulation using numerical models. However, the observed climate variability and the one simulated by the state-of-the-art climate models exhibit substantial discrepancies at the decadal-to-multidecadal time scale and thus it hinders our fundamental understanding of the observed climate change. Evidence is mounting that vigorous intrinsic variability associated with mesoscale oceanic features contributes significantly to large-scale low-frequency climate variability, with fundamental implications for decadal climate low-frequency climate prediction. As of yet, extensive simulation of these decadal effects using high-resolution state-of-the-art coupled climate models has been computationally prohibitive, as it …

Verification Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program (Lamp) At Major Us Airports For Ifr Conditions, Mackenzie O'Rourke

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research is to quantify the LAMP’s performance when forecasting for IFR conditions at specific major airports for forecast hours one, three, six, and twelve, and further determine how the LAMP performs seasonally at those specific airports and forecast hours. Two by two contingency tables were used to calculate the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Heidke Skill Score (HSS), and Bias score. The results show that the LAMP performs relatively better in the cool season compared to the warm season consistently at each chosen airport, and that the LAMP performs …

A Method For Monte Carlo Neutral Particle Radiation Transport In A Variable Density Atmosphere, Aidan B. Edens

Theses and Dissertations

This study focuses on accurately simulating the transport of radiation in the atmosphere to better understand the effects of nuclear weapons. The variable nature of the atmosphere poses a challenge in accurately simulating the prompt radiation following a nuclear explosion. To address this challenge, the Mass Integral Scaling technique is integrated with the Monte Carlo method to perform calculations in a variable density atmosphere. In addition to previous free-field estimates, this work also enables the simulation of transport calculations with other media, such as clouds. Results of neutron and photon fluence have been verified against the standard version of MCNP …

Atmospheric Polarization And Solar Position As Kalman Updates To A Navigation Solution, Thomas J. Wheeler

Theses and Dissertations

Simulation and physical testing of a sensor that measures relative position of the Sun and polarization of light in the atmosphere as a navigational aid in a Kalman filter.

Validation Of Bottom-Up Gnss Radio Occultation Method To Measure D- And E-Region Electron Density, Dylan J. Shaver

Theses and Dissertations

An in-depth validation of a new bottom-up approach using GNSS Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) data to generate electron density profiles in the D- and E-region ionosphere. This comparison was completed using daytime ionosonde profiles when sporadic-E (E_s) was not present, and corresponding FIRI profiles. The average GNSS-RO profile is a few kilometers higher in altitude than the ionosonde profiles at the minimum frequency, f min. When the ionosonde profiles are shifted so that the altitudes match at f min, they are in good agreement up to the E-region peak altitude, hmE. Below f min, the …

A Protocol To Build Trust With Black Box Models, Timothy K. Thielke

Theses and Dissertations

Data scientists are more widely using artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) algorithms today despite the general mistrust associated with them due to the lack of contextual understanding of the domain occurring within the algorithm. Of the many types of ML algorithms, those that use non-linear activation functions are especially regarded with suspicion because of the lack of transparency and intuitive understanding of what is occurring within the black box of the algorithm. In this thesis, we set out to create a protocol to delve into the black box of an ML algorithm set to predict synoptic severe weather patterns …

Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses satellite data and the moment statistics to determine if solar farms can be placed in the Southeast US. From 2001-2019, the data are analyzed in reference to the Southwest US, where solar farms are located. The clean energy need is becoming more common; therefore, more locations than arid environments must be observed. The Southeast US is the main location of interest due to the warm, moist environment throughout the year. This research uses the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) photosynthetically active radiation product (PAR) to determine viable locations for solar panels. A probability density function (PDF) along …

An Investigation Of Geostationary Satellite Imagery To Compare Developing And Non-Developing African Easterly Waves, Jenna Bartlett

Theses and Dissertations

African easterly waves (AEWs) are known precursors to tropical cyclone (TC) formation, although it is not always clear which AEWs will develop and which AEWs will not. To investigate AEW evolution, this study examines novel observations from the geostationary Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) during July-September 2019. Case studies are conducted for two AEWs: one that became Hurricane Dorian, the strongest and most devastating hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and a long-lived September AEW that did not become a TC. Lower-level moisture and flow, and the strength and spatial distribution of convective activity, differed between these two waves. By …

Development And Use Of An Agent-Based Model To Assess The Effect Of Forecast Credibility On Urban Traffic During Snow Events, Lillie Farrell

Theses and Dissertations

With the difficulties in snow accumulation prediction, the potential for false alarms and forecast misses arise. These forecast errors can lead to a lack of public trust and poor decisions in responding to future weather hazards. There has been little research on how individuals respond in the future to false alarms and forecast inconsistencies. We developed an agent-based traffic model to demonstrate how snow forecasts and public response interplay. This model factors receptiveness to expertise, forecast severity, and forecast credibility into the agents’ work-related travel decisions. Agents are grouped into three categories: firm workers, service workers, and household workers, where …

Interactions Between Tropical Cyclones And The Midlatitude Waveguide: Downstream Impacts And The Role Of Convective Processes, Kevin Prince

Theses and Dissertations

Significant amplification to the waveguide can occur when a recurving tropical cyclone (TC) interacts with the midlatitude flow, leading to significant downstream impacts. To this point in time, TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions have been conceptualized as primarily being driven by large-scale processes, with convective-scale contributions having been parameterized or neglected. This three-part study diagnoses the impact TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions have on the intensity evolution of downstream TCs and the role convective-scale processes play in TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions. Recurving TCs in both the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins frequently interact favorably with upstream troughs, where a favorable interaction entails the …

An Investigation Of Sea-Breeze Driven Convection Along The Northern Gulf Coast, Caitlin Ford

Theses and Dissertations

Although sea-breezes frequently initiate convection, it is oftentimes challenging to forecast the precise location of storm development. This research examines temporal and spatial characteristics of sea-breeze driven convection and environmental conditions that support convective or non-convective sea-breeze days along the Northern Gulf Coast. Base reflectivity products were used to identify the initial time of convection (values greater than 30 dBZs) along the sea-breeze front. It was found that convective sea-breezes initiated earlier in the day compared to non-convective sea-breezes. Mapping convective cells in ArcGIS revealed favored locations of thunderstorm development including the southeastern cusp of Mobile County, Alabama and convex …

Impact Of Climate Oscillations/Indices On Hydrological Variables In The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer., Meena Raju

Theses and Dissertations

The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. The main objectives of this research are to identify long term trends and change points in hydrological variables (streamflow and rainfall), to assess the relationship between hydrological variables, and to evaluate the influence of global climate indices on hydrological variables. Non-parametric tests, MMK and Pettitt’s tests were used to analyze trend and change points. PCC and Streamflow elasticity analysis were used to analyze the relationship between streamflow and rainfall and the sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall changes. PCC and MLR analysis …

An Agent-Based Exploration Of The Hurricane Forecast-Evacuation System Dynamics, Austin Reed Harris

Theses and Dissertations

In the mainland US, the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system is uncertain, dynamic, and complex. As a result, it is difficult to know whether to issue warnings, implement evacuation management strategies, or how to make forecasts more useful for evacuations. This dissertation helps address these needs, by holistically exploring the system’s complex dynamics from a new perspective. Specifically, by developing – and using – an empirically informed, agent-based modeling framework called FLEE (Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system). The framework represents the key, interwoven elements to hurricane evacuations: the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road …

Do State Fairs With Firework Displays Impact Pm2.5 Levels In Nearby Communities?, Victoria Lang

Theses and Dissertations

This study identified state fairs with known firework displays to evaluate whether they impact local air quality. Previous research has shown firework displays are linked with the short-term degradation of local air quality due to increased concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) as a result of the display. These studies observed increased PM2.5 concentrations associated with widespread firework displays such as the Lantern Festival in China, Diwali Festival in India, and Independence Day in the United States. However, it has not been investigated whether a signal of increased PM2.5 concentrations from firework displays during a state fair could be observed …

Global Sporadic-E Climatological Analysis Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Data, Travis J. Hodos

Theses and Dissertations

A climatology of sporadic-E (Es) derived from a combined data set of GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) and ground-based ionosonde soundings is presented for the period from September 2006 to February 2019. The ionosonde soundings were measured using the Lowell Digisonde International (LDI) Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) network consisting of 65 sites and 13,141,060 total soundings. The GPS-RO observations were taken aboard the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites and processed using two binary Es detection algorithms, totaling 9,072,922 occultations. The first algorithm is an S4 amplitude threshold calibrated to the occurrence of any blanketing Es …

Feasibility Of Fireball Trail Detection Using Ground-Based Gps Receivers, Ian R. Moffett

Theses and Dissertations

The feasibility of using GPS data to detect fireballs is analyzed by first modeling the fireball’s trail diffusion and plasma chemistry to get a resulting ion density profile of the trail over time. The signal perturbation caused by the fireball trail is simulated for a ground receiver using an analytic solution for diffraction from a Gaussian lens. Five cases were modeled with varying initial peak ion densities and altitudes taken from fireball and reentry vehicle data. This paper shows that it is feasible to detect a fireball trail using GPS if the fireball has a sufficiently high initial ion density, …

Intercomparison Of Four Microphysics Schemes In Simulating Persistent Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumulus Clouds, Zachary A. Cleveland

Theses and Dissertations

Persistent Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds (AMPS) are important to the surface radiation budget of the Arctic. Their presence produces warming within the boundary layer and at the surface and inaccurately forecasting AMPS can lead to large, erroneous temperature forecasts. A Large Eddy Simulation of a case study of a persistent AMPS cloud was conducted using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The case examined occurred near Oliktok Point, AK between 26 and 27 April, 2017. The produced cloud pattern and properties of four different microphysics schemes -- P3, Thompson, Morrison, and WSM6 -- are compared to observations. …

The Influences Of Sea-Surface Temperature Uncertainty On Cool-Season High-Shear, Low Cape Severe Weather Event Predictability In The Southeast United States, Michelle Rose Spencer

Theses and Dissertations

Environments conducive to severe weather and tornadoes occur throughout the southeastern United States, particularly during the cold-season. Throughout the cold-season, severe weather in this region predominantly occurs in environments characterized by high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC). An important aspect to the production of severe weather in HSLC environments in the southeast United States is that air parcels that help contribute to the limited positive-buoyancy generation originate over areas such as the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These relatively warm bodies of water, particularly outside of the cooler coastal shelf regions, allow the air parcels to warm and …

Ionospheric F-Layer Dipole Flute Instability Effects On Electromagnetic Scattering In A Magnetohydrodynamic Plasma, Andrew J. Knisely

Theses and Dissertations

The ionosphere has significant impact on radio frequency (RF) applications such as satellites, over-the-horizon radar, and commercial communication systems. The dynamic processes effecting the behavior of the ionic content leads to a variety of instabilities that adversely affect the quality of RF signals. In the F-layer ionosphere, flute instability persists, appearing as two radial regions of high and low density perturbations elongated along the earth's geomagnetic field lines. The sizes of flute structures are comparable to the wavelengths in the high frequency spectrum. The objective is to characterize the high frequency scattering of an incident field by developing a 3D …

Relationship Between Solar Energetic Particle He/H Abundance Ratios And Properties Of Flares And Cmes, Christopher R. Davidson

Theses and Dissertations

Previous studies have investigated the He/H elemental abundance ratios of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Events of energies above 4 MeV. Also, studies have investigated the correlations between SEPs, Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), and Solar Flares. This work finds the correlations between the >4 MeV He/H abundance ratios and the solar parameters from the SEP, CME, and solar flare associated with the abundance increases. 43 SEP events located at solar west longitude are analyzed to find the correlation coefficients. Highly significant correlation was found between the He/H abundance ratios and the following parameters: solar flare flux, solar flare fluence, CME linear …

Profiling Atmospheric Turbulence Using A Dynamically Ranged Rayleigh Beacon System, Steven M. Zuraski

Theses and Dissertations

The effect of turbulence on a long range imaging system manifest as an image blur effect usually quantified by the phase distortions present in a system. The blurring effect is conceivably understood on the basis of measured strength of atmospheric turbulence profiled within the propagation volume. One method for obtaining a turbulence strength profile is by use of a dynamically ranged Rayleigh beacon system that exploits strategically varied beacon ranges along the propagation path, effectively deducing estimates of specific path segment contributions of the blurring aberrations affecting an optical imaging system. A system utilizing this technique has been designed, and …

Development And Verification Of Extreme Space Weather Phenomena Models, Sophia G. Schwalbe

Theses and Dissertations

A range of 14 M-class flares from 1 June 2015 to 27 September 2016 were analyzed to find significant trends in electron frequency profile modeling using the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and radar parameters using a ray tracing algorithm developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory. GLOW was run for all the flares using three different solar spectrum schemes and an average of the three: the Hinteregger method, EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations (EUVAC), and a rebinned Flare Irradiance Spectrum Model (FISM) result. Comparing data for the E-layer where GLOW is most accurate, it was determined that GLOW using …

An Investigation Into The Thermodynamics Of Overland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change In Weakly/Non-Baroclinic Environments, Michael Partrick Vossen

Theses and Dissertations

There are two leading theories regarding how tropical cyclones can maintain or increase their intensity over land in weakly to non-baroclinic environments. In the first, tropical cyclones are maintained overland by enhanced upward surface enthalpy fluxes facilitated by the tropical cyclone’s rains, whereas in the second, tropical cyclones are maintained by enhanced enthalpy fluxes under inflowing trajectories at larger radii from the cyclone’s center. These theories have yet to be rigorously tested, however. To rigorously test these hypotheses, this study uses a quasi-idealized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model lacking parameterized radiation to test the sensitivity of overland …

Verification Of Environmental-Regime–Stratified Gfs Short-Range Vertical Sounding Forecasts, Dillon Blount

Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, the United States’ operational global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Forecast System (GFS), has been upgraded to include a new dynamical core and an updated turbulence parameterization. This updated turbulence parameterization uses a hybrid eddy-diffusivity, countergradient, and mass-flux formulation to approximate near-surface turbulent vertical mixing. The precise formulation used is based on the local stability, with the eddy-diffusivity, countergradient, and mass flux formulations used under stable, weakly unstable, and strongly unstable conditions, respectively. In this study, an objective classification of environmental regimes is used to verify GFS short-range vertical soundings, focusing on the planetary boundary layer …

Estimation Of The Planetary Boundary Layer Height: Part 1: Global Radar Wind Profiler Network Data; Part 2: A Comparison To Ceilometer Data, Holly Josephs

Theses and Dissertations

Two methods for estimating the planetary boundary layer, an algorithm to identify a maximum in the backscatter and a covariance wavelet transform method, are explored and applied to global radar wind profiler network data and ceilometer data respectively. The objective of the study is to establish that the data sources and algorithms can be used to estimate planetary boundary layer heights so that global studies can make use of these estimates. Data from the global network of wind profilers required significant restructuring and quality control in order to be used for the present study. The maximum backscatter identification algorithm was …

Investigating The Potential Of A Combined Air Quality-Heat Index In Predicting Mortality, Shayna Fever

Theses and Dissertations

Although the development of the Air Quality Index (AQI) has been significant in informing and protecting the public, it may not be entirely reflective of the health effects from exposure to air pollutants. Meteorological factors that are considered in the heat index (HI), temperature and relative humidity, are not considered when calculating the AQI. It may be important to consider certain meteorological factors when assessing the quality of the air because such factors affect the dynamics of air movement as well as the formation of certain pollutants.Through a series of Quasi-Poisson regression models, we investigated whether the relationship between the …