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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
The Influence Of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts Of Convection Initiation, Alexandra Marie Keclik
Theses and Dissertations
The influence of assimilating targeted meso-α- to synoptic-scale observations collected in the upstream, pre-convective environment upon subsequent short-range ensemble forecasts of convection initiation (CI) across the central United States for the fifteen aircraft missions conducted by the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) in May and June 2013 is evaluated in this study. Utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed software package as coupled to version 3.4.1 of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, two nearly-identical thirty- member ensembles of short-range forecasts are conducted for each mission. Initial conditions for one ensemble …
The Influence Of Pbl Parameterization On The Practical Predictability Of Convection Initiation During The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (Mpex), Bryan Burlingame
The Influence Of Pbl Parameterization On The Practical Predictability Of Convection Initiation During The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (Mpex), Bryan Burlingame
Theses and Dissertations
This study evaluates the influence of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations on short-range (0-15 h) forecasts of convection initiation (CI) within convection-allowing ensembles that utilize sub-synoptic-scale observations collected during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Running five thirty-member ensembles with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) with each differing only in the chosen PBL parameterization, forecast skill, PBL sensitivity on the environment in which CI occurred, and the variability within are examined. Three MPEX cases, 19-20 May 2013, 31 May-1 June 2013, and 8-9 June 2013 are considered, each characterized by a different large-scale flow pattern to analyze …
Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt
Assessing The Predictability Of Convection Initiation Using An Object-Based Approach, Brock James Burghardt
Theses and Dissertations
Improvements in numerical forecasts of deep, moist convection have been notable in recent years and are in large part due to increased computational power allowing for the explicit numerical representation of convection. Accurately forecasting the timing and location of convection initiation (CI), however, remains a substantial forecast challenge. This is attributed to the inherently limited intrinsic predictability of CI due to its dependence on highly non-linear moist physics and fine-scale atmospheric processes that are poorly represented in observations. Because CI is the starting point of deep, moist convection that grows upscale, even small errors in initial convective development can rapidly …