Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Prediction Of A Red Nova Outburst In Kic 9832227, Lawrence A. Molnar, Daniel M. Van Noord, Karen Kinemuchi, Jason P. Smolinski

University Faculty Publications and Creative Works

We present the first identification of a candidate precursor for an imminent red nova. Our prediction is based on the example of the precursor to the red nova V1309 Sco, which was retrospectively found to be a contact binary with an exponentially decreasing period. We explore the use of this distinctive timing signature to identify precursors, developing the observational and analysis steps needed. We estimate that our Galaxy has roughly 1-10 observable precursors. Specifically, we lay out the observational case for KIC 9832227, which we identified as a tentative candidate two years ago (Molnar et al. 2015, AAS Meeting #225 …