Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Pollen Forecasting In Sarasota, Florida, Daniel J. Gessman

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Current predictions of pollen levels rely strictly on historical Averages, regardless of environmental factors that might affect the timing of pollen release by different plants. For this thesis, the goal was to develop a statistical model that will accurately forecast pollen levels by correlating those daily counts to atmospheric and meteorological conditions. This project used ARIMA modeling on IBM’s SPSS Statistics 24 of daily pollen count information for multiple allergenic pollens in the Sarasota County, Florida area over a 11-year period. The pollen species in question for this project are oak and cypress trees, grass, and ragweed pollens; and Alternaria …