Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Statistical Methods To Generate Artificial Slot Floor Data For The Advancement Of Casino Related Research, Courtney Bonner, Anastasia (Stasi) D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege, Saman Muthukumarana

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract:

A common difficulty when researching gambling topics is the availability of high-quality data sets for development and testing. Due to the high level of secrecy within the gambling industry, if data is obtained for research purposes it is often prohibitively obfuscated, incomplete, or aggregated. Although these data have allowed for advancement in academic work, it leaves both the researchers and readers left wondering about what would be possible if more detailed data sets were available. To mitigate the paucity of data available to researchers, we present a Markov chain-based statistical process for producing artificial event data for a simulated …

Stake Size And Wagering In A Professional Betting Environment – When Data Affects Decision Making, Anthony Bedford, Tristan Barnett

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an …

A Statistical Analysis Of The Roulette Martingale System: Examples, Formulas And Simulations With R, Peter Pflaumer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Some gamblers use a martingale or doubling strategy as a way of improving their chances of winning. This paper derives important formulas for the martingale strategy, such as the distribution, the expected value, the standard deviation of the profit, the risk of a loss or the expected bet of one or multiple martingale rounds. A computer simulation study with R of the doubling strategy is presented. The results of doubling to gambling with a constant sized bet on simple chances (red or black numbers, even or odd numbers, and low (1 – 18) or high (19 – 36) numbers) and …

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker …