Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Modeling The Spread Of Covid-19 In Spatio-Temporal Context, S.H. Sathish Indika, Norou Diawara, Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Bridget D. Giles, Dilini S.K. Gamage
Modeling The Spread Of Covid-19 In Spatio-Temporal Context, S.H. Sathish Indika, Norou Diawara, Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Bridget D. Giles, Dilini S.K. Gamage
Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications
This study aims to use data provided by the Virginia Department of Public Health to illustrate the changes in trends of the total cases in COVID-19 since they were first recorded in the state. Each of the 93 counties in the state has its COVID-19 dashboard to help inform decision makers and the public of spatial and temporal counts of total cases. Our analysis shows the differences in the relative spread between the counties and compares the evolution in time using Bayesian conditional autoregressive framework. The models are built under the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Moran spatial correlations. …
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov
Publications and Research
We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …
A Bayesian Mixture Model Relating Dose To Critical Organs And Functional Complication In 3d Conformal Radiation Therapy, Tim Johnson, Jeremy Taylor, Randall K. Ten Haken, Avraham Eisbruch
A Bayesian Mixture Model Relating Dose To Critical Organs And Functional Complication In 3d Conformal Radiation Therapy, Tim Johnson, Jeremy Taylor, Randall K. Ten Haken, Avraham Eisbruch
The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
A goal of radiation therapy is to deliver maximum dose to the target tumor while minimizing complications due to irradiation of critical organs. Technological advances in 3D conformal radiation therapy has allowed great strides in realizing this goal, however complications may still arise. Critical organs may be adjacent to tumors or in the path of the radiation beam. Several mathematical models have been proposed that describe a relationship between dose and observed functional complication, however only a few published studies have successfully fit these models to data using modern statistical methods which make efficient use of the data. One complication …