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Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons

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Analysis

Air Force Institute of Technology

Theses and Dissertations

2012

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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Using Predictive Analytics To Detect Major Problems In Department Of Defense Acquisition Programs, Austin W. Dowling Mar 2012

Using Predictive Analytics To Detect Major Problems In Department Of Defense Acquisition Programs, Austin W. Dowling

Theses and Dissertations

This research provides program analysts and Department of Defense (DoD) leadership with an approach to identify problems in real-time for acquisition contracts. Specifically, we develop optimization algorithms to detect unusual changes in acquisition programs’ Earned Value data streams. The research is focused on three questions. First, can we predict the contractor provided estimate at complete (EAC)? Second, can we use those predictions to develop an algorithm to determine if a problem will occur in an acquisition program or subprogram? Lastly, can we provide the probability of a problem occurring within a given timeframe? We find three of our models establish …


A Women-Only Comparision Of The U.S. Air Force Fitness Test And The Marine Combat Fitness Test, Tarah D. Mitchell Mar 2012

A Women-Only Comparision Of The U.S. Air Force Fitness Test And The Marine Combat Fitness Test, Tarah D. Mitchell

Theses and Dissertations

In 2009, Captain Thomas Worden determined the Air Force Physical Fitness Test (AFPFT) poorly predicted combat capability for his 86 study participants. With only 5 of these 86 volunteers being women, this limited Worden's findings to primarily men. This follow-on research investigated whether these results carried over to women. We recruited 61 female volunteers and compared their performance on the AFPFT to the Marine Combat Fitness Test, the proxy for combat capability. Like Worden's research, we discovered little association between the two (R2 of 0.161). However, this association significantly increased (adj R2 of 0.572) when utilizing the raw …