Veterinary Preventive Medicine, Epidemiology, and Public Health Commons^™

Confronting Models With Data: The Challenges Of Estimating Disease Spillover, Paul C. Cross, Diann J. Prosser, Andrew M. Ramey, Ephraim M. Hanks, Kim M. Pepin

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife–livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatiotemporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, …