International Public Health Commons^™

Sequential Dengue Virus Infections Detected In Active And Passive Surveillance Programs In Thailand, 1994-2010, Piraya Bhoomiboonchoo, Ananda Nisalak, Natkamol Chansatiporn, In-Kyu Yoon, Siripen Kalayanarooj, Mathuros Thipayamongkolgul, Timothy Endy, Alan L. Rothman, Sharone Green, Anon Srikiatkhachorn, Darunee Buddhari, Mammen P. Mammen, Robert V. Gibbons

Sharone Green

BACKGROUND: The effect of prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure on subsequent heterologous infection can be beneficial or detrimental depending on many factors including timing of infection. We sought to evaluate this effect by examining a large database of DENV infections captured by both active and passive surveillance encompassing a wide clinical spectrum of disease.

METHODS: We evaluated datasets from 17 years of hospital-based passive surveillance and nine years of cohort studies, including clinical and subclinical DENV infections, to assess the outcomes of sequential heterologous infections. Chi square or Fisher's exact test was used to compare proportions of infection outcomes such …

Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings

Nicholas G Reich

Statistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this paper, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions that emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single time series, this metric enables comparisons of candidate model predictions against naive reference models, a method that can provide useful and standardized performance benchmarks. Additionally, in applications with multiple time series, this …

Conservation And Development Interventions At The Wildlife-Livestock Interface, Steven A. Osofsky, Sarah Cleaveland, William B. Karesh, Michael D. Kock, Philip J. Nyhus, Lisa Starr, Angela Yang

Philip J. Nyhus

No abstract provided.