Epidemiology Commons^™

Cholera Transmission Dynamic Models For Public Health Practitioners, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Great progress has been made in mathematical models of cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. We discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it can be modified to incorporate different hypotheses, including the importance of asymptomatic or inapparent infections, and hyperinfectious V. choleraeand human-to-human transmission. We highlight three important challenges of cholera models: (1) model misspecification and parameter uncertainty, …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Alternative Strategies For Annual Influenza Vaccination Among Children Aged 6 Months To 14 Years In Four Provinces In China, Lei Zhou, Sujian Situ, Zijian Feng, Charisma Y. Atkins, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Zhen Xu, Ting Huang, Shixiong Hu, Xianjun Wang

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background: To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China.

Methods: We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars.

Results: In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range) of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 …