Epidemiology Commons^™

Cholera Transmission Dynamic Models For Public Health Practitioners, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Great progress has been made in mathematical models of cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. We discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it can be modified to incorporate different hypotheses, including the importance of asymptomatic or inapparent infections, and hyperinfectious V. choleraeand human-to-human transmission. We highlight three important challenges of cholera models: (1) model misspecification and parameter uncertainty, …