Epidemiology Commons^™

On The Dynamics And Structure Of Multiple Strain Epidemic Models And Genotype Networks, Blake Joseph Mitchell Williams

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Mathematical disease modeling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality of epidemics and has allowed the modeling community to focus on the complexity of other factors such as contact structure and interventions. However, there is an increasing amount of evidence that the strain diversity of pathogens, and their interplay with the host immune system, can play a large role in shaping the dynamics of epidemics.

This body of work first explores the role of strain-transcending immunity in mathematical disease models, …

Gpu-Accelerated Influenza Simulations For Operational Modeling, Peter Holvenstot

Masters Theses

Simulations of influenza spread are useful for decision-making during public-health emergencies. Policy-makers use models to predict disease spread and estimate the effects of various intervention strategies. Effective modeling of targeted intervention strategies requires accurate modeling of individual-level behavior and transmission. However, this greatly increases the computational costs of these agent-based models. In addition, if the models are used as an outbreak progresses, some operational decisions must occur rapidly in order to contain the spread of the disease.

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are a type of specialized processor used to drive graphical displays. Many recent devices also allow users to write …

An Epidemic Model Structured By The Time Since Last Infection, Jorge Alturo Alfaro Murillo

Open Access Dissertations

Epidemiological models structured by time since infection have their origin in the seminal work of 1927 by Kermack and McKendrick. Compared to ordinary differential equations (ODE) models, they are able to capture differences in infectivity of the individuals in a more suitable manner. Their use declined in the second half of the 20th century, probably because the theory for ODE models is more robust, complete and has proved successful in providing insights and predictions for many epidemiological problems. Nevertheless, it is important to understand in what occasions the inclusion of time since infection may alter the outcomes in a significant …

Constrained Optimal Control For A Multi-Group Discrete Time Influenza Model, Paula Andrea Gonzalez Parra

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

During the last decades, mathematical epidemiological models have been used to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and guide public health policy. In particular, several continuous models have been considered to study single in uenza outbreaks and the impact of dierent control policies. In this dissertation, a discrete time model is introduced in order to study optimal control strategies for in uenza transmission; since epidemiological data is collected on discrete units of time, a discrete formulation is more ecient. From a mathematical point of view, continuous time model are easier to analyze, however, the numerical solution of discrete-time models is …

Optimal Control Applied To A Discrete Time Influenza Model, Paula Andrea Gonzalez Parra

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

For the last decades, mathematical epidemiological models have been used to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and guide public health policy.

In particular, several continuous models have been considered to study influenza outbreaks and their controls policies. However, most epidemiological data is discrete; therefore, a discrete formulation is more convenient to compare collected data with the output of the model. We introduce a discrete time model in order to study optimal control strategies for influenza transmission.

In our model, we divide the population into four classes: susceptible, infectious, treated, and recovered individuals.

In particular, we evaluate the potential effect …