Environmental Public Health Commons^™

Obstructive Lung Disease Models: What Is Valid, Jill M. Ferdinands, David M. Mannino

David M. Mannino

Use of disease simulation models has led to scrutiny of model methods and demand for evidence that models credibly simulate health outcomes. We sought to describe recent obstructive lung disease simulation models and their validation. Medline and EMBASE were used to identify obstructive lung disease simulation models published from January 2000 to June 2006. Publications were reviewed to assess model attributes and four types of validation: first-order (verification/debugging), second-order (comparison with studies used in model development), third-order (comparison with studies not used in model development), and predictive validity. Six asthma and seven chronic obstructive pulmonary disease models were identified. Seven …