Population Health Commons^™

A Longitudinal Multi‑Proxy Geospatial Classification Of Peri‑Urban Transitions Across Community Health Units In Coastal Kenya, Prissy Makena, Felix Oluoch, Rosebella Iseme, Fredrick Gudda, Alfred Keter, Jai Das, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Anthony Ngugi

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Urbanization is spatially heterogeneous in many sub-Saharan African settings. This complicates community health planning when rural and peri-urban labels are applied informally or updated inconsistently. We assessed whether multiple publicly available geospatial proxies could characterize settlement dynamics and support Community Health Unit (CHU) level classification within the Kaloleni Rabai Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KRHDSS) in coastal Kenya.

Methods We conducted a longitudinal ecological analysis across 10 CHUs in Kilifi County with annual observations from 2017 to 2024. Five geospatial proxy indicators of settlement intensity were summarized within CHU boundaries: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) nighttime lights radiance, …

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Persistent Gaps In Management And Risk Factor Control Among Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: All Of Us Research Program, Yakubu Bene-Alhasan, Soad Al Osta, Yussif Issaka, Isaac Acquah, Ahmad Alkhatib, Leen Othman, Samuel Mensah, Ato Howard, Christie Ballantyne, Salim S. Virani

Population Health, East Africa

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Background

Contemporary guidelines recommend aggressive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), yet significant treatment gaps persist in clinical practice. We evaluated lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) use, LDL-C control, and prevelance of cardiovascular risk factors among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD), cerebral atherosclerosis (CAS) and those with all three (polyvascular disease) using real-world data from the NIH-run All of Us Research Program.

Methods

We analyzed electronic health records from 26,935 patients with ASCVD (CAD 21,573; PAD 4752; CAS 6864; and polyvascular 902) enrolled between 2018 and 2023. We assessed baseline LLT …

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Community-Based Tuberculosis Screening With Computer-Aided Detection Technology Alone And In Combination With Point-Of-Care C-Reactive Protein Testing: A Paired Screen-Positive Trial, Klaus Reither, Fiona Vanobberghen, Anna Verjans, Harsh Harkare, Bart Jacobs, Alastair Heerden, Shriya Misra, Fabrizio Tedios, Curdin Brugger, Alfred Keter

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Active tuberculosis case-finding in communities is crucial for early disease detection and disruption of transmission; however, it is complex and costly. A thorough analysis of tuberculosis screening strategies is essential, particularly because the health systems affected often have limited resources. We aimed to compare two community screening approaches in terms of tuberculosis case yield and cost.

Methods This pragmatic community trial, with a paired screen-positive design (ie, within-person comparison), was conducted in the Butha-Buthe District in Lesotho and the uMgungundlovu District in South Africa. All household members aged at least 18 years were eligible to participate, except those who …

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U.S. Cardiovascular Mortality Before And During Covid-19: Cdc Wonder Vs Gbd Comparison, Mirza Ali Baig, Muhammad Umar, Carol Becker, Salim S. Virani, Dmitry Abramov, Xiaoming Jia, Abdul Minhas

Population Health, East Africa

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No abstract provided.

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New-Onset Cognitive Impairment After Delirium Among Hospitalised Older Ghanaians: A Pilot Study, John-Paul Omuojine, Richard Dei-Asamoa, Caleb Otu-Ansah, Gertrude Aboah, Belinda Opoku, George Amponsah, Stella Afeti, Leah Ratner, Ruth Owusu-Antwi, Cyprian Mostert

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Delirium is a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, post-delirium cognition has hardly been studied in Africa, where the burden of both disorders is rising disproportionately.

Objective We estimated the incidence of new-onset cognitive impairment (NCI) 6 months after hospitalisation with non-stroke delirium among older Ghanaians.

Methods This was a prospective observational pilot study conducted among 60 previously cognitively unimpaired (retrospective proxy assessment) adults aged ≥60 years, hospitalised with non-stroke prevalent delirium in a Tertiary Hospital. Delirium was confirmed and rated using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) and Severity Scale (CAM-S) within 24–72 hours of admission and reassessed …

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Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Phenotypes And Circadian Blood Pressure Patterns Among Adults Referred For Diagnostic Evaluation At Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study, Nadeem Kassam, Mzee Ngunga, James Orwa, Alisa Bhojani, Mohamed Varwani, Swaffiya Salim, Yvonne Oketch, Salim Surani, Anthony Ochola, Barbara Karau, Jeilan Mohamed, Etienne Amendezo

Internal Medicine, East Africa

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Introduction: hypertension represents the primary modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and poses a public health challenge in sub-Saharan regions, with Kenya experiencing particularly low detection and control rates. Traditional office-based blood pressure measurements often fail to detect key phenotypes, such as white-coat and masked hypertension. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) offers a comprehensive 24-hour profile that excludes white-coat hypertension and allows for the evaluation of circadian patterns, including nocturnal hypertension and non-dipping status, both of which are recognized as high-risk phenotypes strongly linked to adverse cardiovascular events. This study evaluated ABPM data from Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi …

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Structured Telehealth Community Health Worker-Clinician Feedback And Diabetes Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial, Elizabeth Vaughan, Xiaoying Yu, Amber Amspoker, Aanand Naik, Ashok Balasubramanyam, Craig Johnston, Christi Ballantyne, Salim S. Virani, Shelton Brown, Kristina Mena

Population Health, East Africa

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Importance  Community health workers (CHWs) improve chronic disease management in underserved populations, but scalable integration strategies are limited.

Objective  To evaluate whether a multidimensional intervention incorporating telementored CHWs and a structured participant-CHW-clinician feedback loop can improve diabetes outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This 12-month randomized clinical trial was conducted at 3 institutionally and geographically diverse community clinics in Texas between September 1, 2023, and April 30, 2025, and included low-income, uninsured White Hispanic adults with type 2 diabetes identified through clinic databases. Data were analyzed between May 1 and July 31, 2025.

Intervention  Individuals were randomized 1:1 to the intervention …

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Assessing Aflatoxin Knowledge, Perceptions, And Related Practices, In A Rural Coastal Community: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Survey, Rosebella Iseme, Joseph Abuodha, Anthony Ngugi, Innocent Abayo, Mansoor Saleh

Population Health, East Africa

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Background

Aflatoxin contamination is a significant yet under-addressed food safety challenge in low-resource settings, driven by a complex interplay of environmental, agricultural, and socio-economic factors. Limited access to agricultural inputs, inadequate post-harvest handling and storage, and weak regulatory enforcement alongside food scarcity and climate change heighten the risk of contamination and exposure. Human exposure is associated with serious health consequences, including hepatocellular carcinoma, immune suppression, and childhood stunting. Although aflatoxin is increasingly recognized as a global food safety concern, little is known about community-level knowledge, risk perceptions, and preventive practices. This study examined household heads’ awareness, perceptions, and behaviours related …

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Satellite-Derived Longitudinal Evidence Of Flood Effects On Community Water And Sanitation Resilience In Coastal Kenya, Felix Oluoch, Rosebella Iseme, Fredrick Gudda, Alfred Keter, Rachel Odhiambo, Jai Das, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Anthony Ngugi

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Flooding can disrupt water, sanitation and hygiene services in low-income rural and peri-urban settings, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on how repeated flood exposure affects safe water and sanitation over time at the level of Community Health Units (CHUs), which are the operational units for primary health care in Kenya.

Methods We analysed repeated CHU-level data from ten Community Health Units in Kilifi County, Kenya, across eleven surveillance rounds from 2017 to 2024. For each round, we calculated the percentage of households with safe drinking water and with access to a functional latrine, and linked these outcomes to …

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Feasibility And Acceptability Of A Mobile App And Wearable Device For Collecting Mental Health Survey And Passively Sensed Data Among Health Care Workers In Kenya: Mixed Methods Pilot Study, Linda Khakali, Andrew Aballa, Dorcas G. Mwigereri, Willie Njoroge, Rachel Maina, Amos Bunde, Peris Musitia, Moses Nyongesa, James Orwa, Jasmit Shah, Anthony Ngugi, Lukoye Atwoli, Amina Abubakar, Zul Merali

Brain and Mind Institute

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Background: Mobile apps and wearable devices may help to facilitate early detection of mental health conditions by providing objective, real-time data to supplement other forms of feedback and diagnoses. Few studies have investigated the acceptability and feasibility of using a mobile app to track survey- and wearable-based data in mental health research in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective: This pilot study evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of using a mobile app and wearables to capture mental health–based survey data and passively sensed data among Kenyan health care workers.

Methods: A mixed methods study was conducted among health care workers …

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Participant Recruitment, Baseline Characteristics And Burden Of Cardiometabolic Risk Markers Among Adults With Prediabetes In Kenya: Insights From The Fermented Foods And Prediabetes Study, Rosebella Iseme, Alex Muia, Jacob Shabani, Samuel Mucheru, Catherine Gathu, Eliphas Gitonga, Redempta Mutisya, Peter Kioko, Jalal Safipour, Cornelia Witthöft

Population Health, East Africa

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Aims

Cardiometabolic abnormalities such as obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia are rising globally and straining health systems. This study assessed the burden of cardiometabolic risk factors among prediabetic adults in Kenya.

Methods

We analyzed baseline data from the Fermented Foods and Prediabetes Randomized Controlled Trial, which recruited adults with prediabetes (HbA1c 39–46 mmol/mol; 5.7%–6.4%) from Aga Khan University Hospital outreach clinics in five Kenyan counties. Standardized questionnaires and clinical assessments were conducted, with HbA1c measured via turbidimetric inhibition immunoassay. Data were managed in REDCap and analyzed in Stata v13. Poisson regression identified factors associated with co-occurrence of cardiometabolic risk factors.

Results …

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Disseminated Tuberculosis Presenting With A Nodo-Colonic Fistula In A Newly Diagnosed Hiv-Positive Patient: A Case Report From Tanzania, Samina Somji, Salim Surani, Joshua Ngimbwa, Tevin Kahwa, Frank Swai, Fatema Tayabali, Bishoy Rofaeil

Population Health, East Africa

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We present the case of a 35-year-old male with no known comorbidities who presented with chronic gastrointestinal (GI) and constitutional symptoms and was empirically treated with several antibiotics during multiple clinic visits at different health facilities. The laboratory test sent included a stool GeneXpert, which was positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). CT imaging revealed multiple necrotic abdominal and retroperitoneal lymph nodes, hypoenhancing splenic lesions, a nodo-colonic fistula between the necrotic retroperitoneal lymph nodes and the adjacent colon, and a mild left-sided pleural effusion. Colonoscopy demonstrated caseating discharge from the fistulous tract 40 cm from the anal verge, and histology showed …

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Burden Of Cardiovascular Disease In Pakistan – Insight From Global Burden Of Disease Study 2019, Ali Bin Jabbar, Taha Mansoor, Sana Sheikh, Tazeen Jafar, Sawera Hanif, Christian Razo, Mahboob Alam, Jamal Rana, Khurram Nasir, Salim Virani

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Pakistan, currently the fifth-largest country by population globally, has experienced a population increase of over 100% since 1990. It is facing an escalating challenge from cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study provides an in-depth evaluation of Pakistan's health situation since 1990, offering essential insights into the nation's overall health conditions.

Methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, which provides records for global, regional, and national burden of diseases. Specifically, data regarding CVD and its subtypes, morbidity, and mortality in Pakistan and globally from 1990 to 2019 were used …

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Benefits, Challenges, And The Way Forward: Medical Specialists' Perception On Family Physician Integration In Healthcare System In Tanzania, Juvenalius Anselm, Roselyter Riang’A, Neelam Ismail, Davis Rubagumya, Jesca Munishi, Sumayyah Saudin, Lynn Moshi, Willbroad Kyejo, Nancy Matillya

Family Medicine, East Africa

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Background Family medicine provides comprehensive care by integrating biomedical, behavioral, and social sciences. While established in some sub-Saharan countries, it remains new and unintegrated in Tanzania’s public health system. Its integration is vital for healthcare reform to enhance patient care and system quality.This study aimed to understand the perceptions of medical specialists regarding the integration of family physicians into the Tanzanian healthcare system.

Methods A descriptive qualitative study was conducted through in-depth interviews with ten medical specialists from Aga Khan Hospital and Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam. Thematic analysis was employed in this study.

Results Integration of family …

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Key Predictors Of Postpartum Depression And Anxiety Symptoms Among Mothers In Kilifi, Kenya: A Machine Learning Approach, Faith Benson, Rachel Odhiambo, Willie Brink, Anthony Ngugi, Akbar Waljee, Eileen Weinheimer-Haus, Cheryl Moyer, Ji Zhu, Amina Abubakar

Institute for Human Development, East Africa

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Background:

The burden of maternal postpartum depression and anxiety is disproportionately high in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet the use of advanced analytical methods to capture the complex interplay of variables influencing these conditions remains underexplored.

Objective:

To apply machine learning (ML) methods to predict depressive and anxiety symptoms in postpartum mothers and to identify key and actionable predictors.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study included 1,995 biological mothers of singleton infants aged 0–6 months, using survey data collected between March 2023 and March 2024 in Kaloleni and Rabai sub-counties, Kilifi County, Kenya, within the Kaloleni–Rabai Health and Demographic Surveillance …

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Age-Specific Concentrations And Seroprevalence Of Antibodies Against Salmonella Enteritidis (O:9) And Salmonella Typhimurium (O:4,5) Across Three Sites In Kenya., Esther Muthumbi, Sean Elias, Alfred Mwanzu, Agnes Mutiso, Perpetual Wanjiku, Cecilia Mbae, Godfrey Bigogo, Jennifer Verani, Stefan Flasche, Samuel Kariuki

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Seroprevalence studies can indicate the age distribution of first infection with nontyphoidal Salmonella and estimate the rate of infection by age.

Method We collected 1254 paired samples of serum and stool from healthy children and adults in Kilifi, Nairobi, and Siaya counties in Kenya, areas of low, medium, and high incidence of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella disease, respectively. We quantified the age- and site-specific geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of IgG and IgA antibodies against S Enteritidis O-antigen (O:9, serogroup D) and S Typhimurium O-antigen (O:4,5, serogroup B) using an in-house standardized enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serum concentrations were estimated against a …

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Implementation And Acceptability Of A Community Based Intervention For Cervical Cancer Screening Amongst Women Of Reproductive Age In Kiambu County, Kenya, Redempta Mutisya, Eliphas Gitonga, Molly Maundu, Rosebella Iseme

Population Health, East Africa

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Objective In Kenya, cervical cancer is the top cause of cancer deaths and second most prevalent cancer among women aged 15–44. Despite the existence of screening programs, only 13.8% of women participate, with nearly 50% diagnosed late. Lack of knowledge and embarrassment is linked to low uptake. Post-intervention, uptake of screening and acceptability of SMS prompts and self-sampling were evaluated.

Methods Women (18+ years), who had never screened, were randomly chosen from a pre-existing database. They received either usual care (notification of availability of screening services at public health facility), text education, or interactive in-person sessions with self-sample training.

Results …

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Serotype-Specific Pneumococcal Invasiveness: A Global Meta-Analysis Of Paired Estimates Of Disease Incidence And Carriage Prevalence, Katherine Gallagher, Fredrick Odiwour, Christian Bottomley, John Ojal, Aisha Adamu, Esther Muthumbi, Eunice Kagucia, Laura Hammitt, Sergio Massora, Betuel Sigaúque

Population Health, East Africa

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Background Serotype-specific estimates of pneumococcal invasiveness used in pneumococcal carriage transmission models to predict changes in disease incidence post-vaccination are largely derived from high-income settings. We conducted a systematic review of carriage prevalence and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence to calculate case–carrier ratios (CCRs) in different income settings.

Methods We conducted a systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases on March 14, 2022, to identify publications on pneumococcal carriage prevalence or IPD incidence; we requested individual-level data from authors of relevant texts. Serotype-specific CCRs, calculated as IPD incidence divided by carriage prevalence, were pooled across settings using random …

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Awarded Research Grants As A Pathway To Sustainable Development Goals, Maha Inam, Salim S. Virani, Melaine D'Cruze, Veronica Robi, Peter Gatiti, Anil Khamis

Population Health, East Africa

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The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a set of global goals that provide an agenda for sustainable growth and development across all sectors and disciplines. However, the contribution of academic institutions from the developing world towards the SDGs has not received adequate attention from the scientific community. A review of all the awarded grants in 2022 and 2023 at an international academic institution was conducted. The objectives outlined in the grant proposals were used to map the SDGs accordingly. A quantitative frequency analysis was conducted to tabulate the results. A total of 293 grants obtained in 2022 and …

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Social, Environmental And Policy Contexts Affecting The Feasibility And Acceptability Of Improving Household Flooring For Better Health In Rural Kenya, Ulrike Fillinger, Victoria Ochwal, Hugo Legge, Sharon Muli, Karisa Kazungu, Carlos Mcharo, Jacinta Mwongeli, Charles Mwandawiro, Katherine Halliday, Doris Njomo

Institute for Human Development, East Africa

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Background Homes with unimproved floors (earth, sand, or clay) are associated with increased risks of soil-transmitted parasites and enteric infections, leading to higher morbidity and reduced quality of life. This study explored the enablers and barriers to adopting improved flooring (sealed, washable, and durable) in three culturally diverse regions of Kenya - Narok, Bungoma, and Kwale - to mitigate disease burdens.

Methods Between August 2021 and July 2022, we conducted 24 focus group discussions with homeowners, stratified by age, gender, and floor type. Additionally, 28 key informant interviews with local government officials, microfinance representatives, and masonry trainers in Kwale and …

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Prediction Of First And Multiple Antiretroviral Therapy Interruptions In People Living With Hiv: Comparative Survival Analysis Using Cox And Explainable Machine Learning Models, Donald Salami, Emily Koech, Janet Turan, Kristen Stafford, Lilly Nyagah, Stephen Ohakanu, Anthony Ngugi, Manhattan Charurat

Institute for Human Development, East Africa

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Background: The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model is a common choice for analyzing time-to-treatment interruptions in patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), valued for its straightforward interpretability and flexibility in handling time-dependent covariates. Machine learning (ML) models have increasingly been adapted for handling temporal data, with added advantages of handling complex, nonlinear relationships and large datasets, and providing clear practical interpretations.

Objective: This study aims to compare the predictive performance of the traditional CPH model and ML models in predicting treatment interruptions among patients on ART, while also providing both global and individual-level explanations to support personalized, data-driven interventions …

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The Impact Of Lipid Apheresis On Changes Of Lipoprotein(A): A Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis, Bahman Razi, Masoud Eslami, Saeed Aslani, Shahab Alizadeh, Alireza Hatami, Wael Almahmeed, Salim Virani, Amirhossein Sahebkar

Population Health, East Africa

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Aims Elevated levels of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] are increasingly recognized as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of lipid apheresis therapy on serum Lp(a) levels in a wide array of disorders, particularly CVDs.

Methods and results Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases up to May 2025. Studies reporting pre- and post-treatment Lp(a) levels in participants undergoing lipid apheresis were included. A random-effects model was used when heterogeneity was significant. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were conducted to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. A total …

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