Medical Specialties Commons^™

The Association Of Meningococcal Disease With Influenza In The United States, 1989-2009, Jessica Hartman Jacobs, Cecile Viboud, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Joel Schwartz, Claudia Steiner, Lone Simonsen, Marc Lipsitch

Global Health Faculty Publications

Importance and Objective

Prior influenza infection is a risk factor for invasive meningococcal disease. Quantifying the fraction of meningococcal disease attributable to influenza could improve understanding of viral-bacterial interaction and indicate additional health benefits to influenza immunization.

Design, Setting and Participants

A time series analysis of the association of influenza and meningococcal disease using hospitalizations in 9 states from 1989–2009 included in the State Inpatient Databases from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the proportion of positive influenza tests by subtype reported to the Centers for Disease Control. The model accounts for the autocorrelation of meningococcal disease and …

Synthesizing Data And Models For The Spread Of Mers-Cov, 2013: Key Role Of Index Cases And Hospital Transmission, Gerardo Chowell, Seth Blumberg, Lone Simonsen, Mark A. Miller, Cecile Viboud

Global Health Faculty Publications

The outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has caused 209 deaths and 699 laboratory-confirmed cases in the Arabian Peninsula as of June 11, 2014. Preparedness efforts are hampered by considerable uncertainty about the nature and intensity of human-to-human transmission, with previous reproduction number estimates ranging from 0.4 to 1.5. Here we synthesize epidemiological data and transmission models for the MERS-CoV outbreak during April–October 2013 to resolve uncertainties in epidemic risk, while considering the impact of observation bias. We match the progression of MERS-CoV cases in 2013 to a dynamic transmission model that incorporates community and hospital compartments, and …

Global Mortality Estimates For The 2009 Influenza Pandemic From The Glamor Project: A Modeling Study, Lone Simonsen, Peter Spreeuwenberg, Roger Lustig, Robert J. Taylor, Douglas M. Fleming, Madelon Kroneman, Maria D. Van Kerkhove, Anthony D. Mounts, W. John Paget

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.

Methods and Findings

We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ~35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used …