Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics Commons^™

Statistical Considerations In Determining Hiv Incidence From Changes In Hiv Prevalence, Ron Brookmeyer, Jacob Konikoff

Ron Brookmeyer

The development of methods for estimating HIV incidence is critical for tracking the epidemic and for designing, targeting and evaluating HIV prevention efforts. One method for estimating incidence is based on changes in HIV prevalence. That method is attracting increased attention because national population-based HIV prevalence surveys, such as Demographic and Health Surveys, are being conducted throughout the world. Here, we consider some statistical issues associated with estimating HIV incidence from two population-based HIV prevalence surveys conducted at two different points in time. We show that the incidence estimator depends on the relative survival rate. We evaluate the sensitivity of …