Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics Commons^™

Modeling The Incubation Period Of Anthrax, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Sarah Barry

Ron Brookmeyer

Models of the incubation period of anthrax are important to public health planners because they can be used to predict the delay before outbreaks are detected, the size of an outbreak and the duration of time that persons should remain on antibiotics to prevent disease. The difficulty is that there is little direct data about the incubation period in humans. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply models for the incubation period of anthrax. Mechanistic models that account for the biology of spore clearance and germination are developed based on a competing risks formulation. The models predict …

Modeling An Outbreak Of Anthrax, Ron Brookmeyer

Ron Brookmeyer

Introduction

On October 2, 2001 a sixty-three-year-old Florida man who worked as a photo editor at a media publishing company was admitted to an emergency department complaining of nausea, vomiting, and fever. His symptoms began four days earlier on a recreational trip to North Carolina. The man died shortly thereafter. An astute clinician quickly made the surprising diagnosis of inhalational anthrax, which is a serious and deadly disease. The diagnosis was surprising because inhalational anthrax is extremely rare; only 18 cases were reported in the United States between 1900 and 1978. Public health officials at first believed that the Florida …