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Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics Commons™
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Full-Text Articles in Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics
Confidence Intervals For Biomarker-Based Human Immunodeficiecny Virus Incidence Estimates And Differences Using Prevalent Data, Ron Brookmeyer, S Cole, H Chu
Confidence Intervals For Biomarker-Based Human Immunodeficiecny Virus Incidence Estimates And Differences Using Prevalent Data, Ron Brookmeyer, S Cole, H Chu
Ron Brookmeyer
Prevalent biological specimens can be used to estimate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence using a two-stage immunologic testing algorithm that hinges on the average time, say T, between testing HIV positive on highly and less sensitive enzyme immunoassays. Common approaches to confidence interval (CI) estimation for this incidence measure have included (1) ignoring the random error in T or (2) employing a Bonferroni adjustment to the box method. The authors present alternative Monte Carlo-based CIs for this incidence measure, as well as CIs for the biomarker-based incidence difference; standard approaches to CIs are typically appropriate for the incidence ratio. Using …
Aids Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach, Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell Gail
Aids Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach, Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell Gail
Ron Brookmeyer
This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much …
Reconstruction And Future Trends Of The Aids Epidemic In The United States, Ron Brookmeyer
Reconstruction And Future Trends Of The Aids Epidemic In The United States, Ron Brookmeyer
Ron Brookmeyer
There has been considerable uncertainty in estimates of past and current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates in the United States. Statistical estimates of historical infection rates can be obtained from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence data and the incubation period. However, this approach is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and two other approaches, epidemic models of HIV transmission and surveys of HIV prevalence, are used to corroborate and refine the statistical estimates. Analyses suggest the HIV infection rate in the United States grew rapidly in the early 1980s, peaked in the mid-1980s, and subsequently declined markedly. …
The Minimum Size Of The Aids Epidemic In The United States, Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell Gail
The Minimum Size Of The Aids Epidemic In The United States, Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell Gail
Ron Brookmeyer
A new method based on the reported incubation period of transfusion-associated AIDS was used to estimate the number of AIDS cases likely to arise in the USA among those infected before 1986. Between 1986 and 1991 102 000 new cases are projected, with a total cumulative incidence of 135 000 AIDS cases. These estimates do not account for new infections after 1985 nor very long incubation periods and are thus the smallest numbers to be expected. Even if new infections can be effectively prevented, the epidemic will be five times larger than the number of cases observed so far.