Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Data Sources Regarding The Nonmedical Use Of Pharmaceutical Opioids In The United States, Teresa D. Schmidt, Amanuel Zimam, Alexandra Nielsen, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Objective—Recent increases in the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and the adverse outcomes associated with them have stimulated a large amount of research and data collection on this public health problem. Systematic organization of the available data sources is needed to facilitate ongoing research, analysis, and evaluation. This work offers a systematic categorization of data sources regarding the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States.

Methods—A list of keywords regarding the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids was used to conduct systematic searches in PubMed®. Filtration of search results generated 92 peer-reviewed academic articles, published between January 1995 and …

Dynamic Modeling Of Nonmedical Opioid Initiation: Epidemic And Access, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We report development of a systems level dynamic model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The model calibrated to 1995-2005 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, predicts 2006-2011 data well. Preliminary findings indicate that interventions which reduce the perceived attractiveness of opioids for recreational use may be able to reduce initiation and nonmedical use most significantly, while supply restriction effected through drug take back days and prescribing changes may have more modest effects. We argue that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the …

Data On The Diversion, Nonmedical Use And Adverse Outcomes Associated With Pharmaceutical Opioids, Amanuel Zimam, Teresa D. Schmidt, Alexandra Nielsen, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Recent increases in the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and the adverse outcomes associated with them have stimulated a large amount of research and data collection on this public health problem. Systematic organization of the available data sources is needed to facilitate ongoing research, analysis, and evaluation.

Method: A list of keywords associated with diversion, nonmedical use, and adverse outcomes of pharmaceutical opioid use generated 94 peer-reviewed academic articles and a number of governmental and nongovernmental sources. All sources were in English, contained quantitative data, and were published between January 1995 and April 2012. A list of 20 topics …

System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The objective of the study was to develop a system dynamics model of the medical use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain, and the associated diversion and nonmedical use of these drugs. The model was used to test the impact of simulated interventions in this complex system. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the literature and from other public sources for the period 1995 to 2008. In addition, an expert panel provided recommendations regarding model parameters and model structure. The behavior of the resulting systems level model compared favorably with reference behavior data (R2=.95). After the base model …

Key Data Gaps For Understanding Trends In Prescription Opioid Analgesic Abuse And Diversion Among Chronic Pain Patients And Nonmedical Users, Wayne W. Wakeland, John Fitzgerald, Aaron Gilson, J. David Haddox, Jack Homer, Lewis Lee, Louis Macovsky, Dennis Mccarty, Teresa D. Schmidt, Lynn Webster

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Population dynamics of medical and nonmedical prescription opioid usage and adverse outcomes were modeled. Critical parameter values were determined by their amount of influence on model behavior. Results suggest that closing these data gaps would help researchers to better identify ways to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes.

Reproducing Published Results From In Silico Computer Models Of The Acute Inflammatory Response To Severe Sepsis, Wayne W. Wakeland, Joe Fusion, Brahm Goldstein

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent studies describe computer simulation models of the acute or systemic inflammatory response (AIR or SIR) to severe sepsis, a condition that can lead to multiple organ failure and death. One study used an agent-based model, while the other used differential equations (DEs) to simulate a randomized clinical trial. Both studies obtained results similar to the actual results from a successful clinical drug trial of severe sepsis, suggesting that in silico (simulated) randomized clinical trials may be used to design more effective in vivo clinical trials.

A Tale Of Two Methods—Agent-Based Simulation And System Dynamics— Applied In A Biomedical Context: Acute Inflammatory Response, Wayne W. Wakeland, Joe Fusion, Brahm Goldstein

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Three specific models of the acute inflammatory response were contrasted. The first model was a recently published and rather complex agent-based model used to simulate clinical trials in silico. The second model was a highly simplified system dynamics model developed during the present research. The third model was also recently published, with similar objectives to the first model, but utilized a complex set of 18 differential equations. The study found that the complexity of the first and third models is likely to adversely impact their usefulness, at least for other researchers. The second model, which is too simple to …