Government Contracts Commons^™

Analyzing Stability Of Estimates At Completion For Long Duration Development Efforts, Bradley Vuu, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Defense program managers utilize Earned Value Management (EVM) methodologies to measure, report, and predict the cost and schedule performance of their programs. Previous research conducted by Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) has shown varied results in the stability of EVM Estimates at Completion (EACs). Stability is defined as a 10% or less deviation from the final EAC at a specified percent completion point of the program. The Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) studies also noted that program-specific factors, such as phase, can impact the accuracy of EVM metrics. This study builds upon those works by assessing …

Distribution Comparisons Of Eac Cost Growth For Aircraft Work Breakdown Structure Elements, Kyle P. Marquis, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Robert D. Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes and investigates the distribution of cost growth of the Estimate at Completion (EAC) for the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements of approximately 60 historical United States Acquisition Category I Research, Development, Test and Evaluation aircraft programs. Using the method of maximum likelihood in conjunction with the Akaike Information Criterion, the authors suggest that both the lognormal and Weibull distributions provide relatively good fit to EAC cost growth, with the lognormal slightly edging out the Weibull. As a summarized finding, the authors present their empirical results for the mean, coefficient of variation (CV), the 15th and 85th percentiles …

Innovation Challenges In The Air Force Sbir Program: From The Small Businesses' Perspective, Hart J. Holt, Amy M. Cox, Scott Drylie, David S. Long, Alfred E. Thal Jr., Robert D. Fass

Faculty Publications

Every year the United States invests $3.2 billion in the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program to promote innovation among the nation’s small businesses. Half of this investment is from the DoD. This research considers the challenges faced by small businesses innovating with the DoD, particularly those awarded SBIR contracts with the United States Air Force. The authors surveyed 286 unique small businesses that were previously awarded an Air Force SBIR contract. By asking the survey respondents open-ended questions and categorizing their responses, they pinpoint unaddressed challenges from the small business perspective. By categorizing survey responses through Qualitative Content Analysis, …

Innovation Challenges In The Air Force Sbir Program: From The Small Businesses’ Perspective, Hart J. Holt, Amy M. Cox, Scott Drylie, David S. Long, Alfred E. Thal Jr., R. David Fass

Faculty Publications

Every year the United States invests $3.2 billion in the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program to promote innovation among the nation’s small businesses. Half of this investment is from the DoD. This research considers the challenges faced by small businesses innovating with the DoD, particularly those awarded SBIR contracts with the United States Air Force. The authors surveyed 286 unique small businesses that were previously awarded an Air Force SBIR contract. By asking the survey respondents open-ended questions and categorizing their responses, they pinpoint unaddressed challenges from the small business perspective. By categorizing survey responses through Qualitative Content Analysis, …

Deconstructing The Software Factory: A Practical Application Of Interorganizational Network Analysis, Zachary O. Ryan, Mark Reith, Clay Koschnick

Faculty Publications

Over the past 5 years, the number of DoD software organizations that employ nontraditional organizational structures has increased. These organizations, commonly referred to as software factories, often employ the network-based organizational structures found within high-technology industries. This article details ways in which network analysis techniques can be used to create a big picture view of these nontraditional organizations. Drawing on methodologies employed by network researchers, the authors develop and present an interorganizational analysis process that highlights a program's social and economic structures. Following the case history approach, they demonstrate the applicability of this approach by analyzing an emergent DoD software …

Innovation Transition Success: Practice Doesn't Make Perfect, Kaitlyn Ryan, Amy M. Cox, Ethan Blake, Clay Koschnick, Alfred E. Thal Jr.

Faculty Publications

The authors of this research examine and evaluate organizational factors associated with commercialization under the Air Force Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. Their objective is to improve return on investment. The data set used was the SBIR Phase II program data set, which contains information on 433 SBIR topics with closed contracts reported during Department of Defense (DoD) fiscal years (FYs) 2015 to 2018. Each data point contained characteristics of the topic, including commercialization. Military capability or topic areas were hypothesized to have varying commercialization rates. Incumbency was theorized to be a characteristic of successful programs, while increased company …

Exploring Performance In Air Force Science And Technology Programs, Eric A. Plack, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick

Faculty Publications

Science and technology (S&T) programs serve an important function in the defense acquisition process as the initial phase leading to discovery and development of warfighting technology. The results of these programs impact the larger major defense acquisition programs, which integrate the technologies in subsequent phases of the life cycle. Despite this important role, little prior research has examined the performance of S&T programs. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of technological maturation as a critical success factor in Air Force S&T programs. The results suggest that S&T programs with mature technologies are more likely to experience above average …

Use Of Factors In Development Estimates: Improving The Cost Analysis Toolkit, Matthew R. Markman, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Factor Estimating is a technique commonly used by defense acquisition analysts to develop cost estimations. However, previous studies developing factors for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase of the life cycle are limited. This research expands the current toolkit for cost analysts by developing cost factors in previously unexplored areas. More specifically, over 400 cost reports are utilized to create new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and Service. The factors are developed for those elements that are common in a wide array of projects such as program …

Contractual Procurement Alternatives Of Air Force Contingency Pharmaceuticals: A Cost-Benefit Analysis, Adam J. Brubakken, John M. Dickens, Jason Andrerson, William A. Cunningham Iii

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to explore effective supply chain principles, through the theory of transaction cost economics, as measures to improve current contingency pharmaceutical item shortfalls in the Air Force Medical Service (AFMS) Contingency Pharmaceutical Programme. Design/methodology/approach — In this research, AFMS contingency pharmaceutical data was collected from various databases, including the Joint Medical Asset Repository, Medical Contingency Requirements Workflow and the Medical Requirements List. Through the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, alternative sourcing and fulfilment practices are evaluated. Findings — The findings of this research indicate that the application of centralized purchasing principles, in an effort to leverage prime …

Analysis Of Military Construction Cost Growth In Usaf Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Emily E. Angell, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Alfred E. Thal Jr.

Faculty Publications

This study uses descriptive and inferential statistics to identify cost growth Analysis of Military Construction of military construction (MILCON) at the programmatic level, while bridging the gap between Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) estimates and actual project costs. Findings of this study aid the cost community with appropriate allocation of resources in developing these estimates. Overall, Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) appear to experience more negative growth (cost savings) in MILCON estimates on reviewed SARs— typically less than 0.2% of the total program cost. SAR estimates became more accurate from the first to last SAR in comparison to the total MILCON …

Uncertainty In Employee Status Across Federal Law, Ryan Vacca

Faculty Publications

Numerous federal statutes rely on a distinction between employees and independent contractors. Based on a series of Supreme Court decisions from 1968 through 2003, courts and administrative agencies have used a common law multifactor test to draw this distinction. In an effort to enhance predictability and certainty within and across legislation, these cases have rejected a purposive approach in applying the test. But the Supreme Court has never said which, if any, of the factors are the most important in the analysis, nor has anyone determined whether the underlying purpose-enhancing predictability and certainty-has been attained.

This empirical study uses content …

Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes how development budget estimates, as reported in the Selected Acquisition Reports, change over time for primarily Air Force space programs. Government acquisition policy emphasizes the importance of developing an accurate point estimate for programs to ensure program budget efficiency; however, statistics imply space programs tend to underspend at the beginning of the program and to overspend at the end of Initial Operational Capability. This suggests new phasing methods that reflect the unique needs of space and perhaps other developmental-type programs by allocating more of the budget in later years rather than at the beginning of the program, …

A Case For Open Mission Systems In Dod Aircraft Avionics, Michael J. Brown, R. David Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The DOD is adopting open mission systems (OMS) as the future in the military aviation environment. OMS proponents promise reduced costs and truncated schedules through increased competition in the marketplace and reduced coding efforts. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have examined the success of these open architectures in the DOD. Therefore, we investigate costs and schedule for a recent DOD avionics OMS demonstration platform in comparison to 13 historically analogous programs.

Evaluating Annual Fixed Wing Maintenance Costs, Kirsten Bunecke, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brett A. Bush

Faculty Publications

This article serves two purposes: first, to empirically model the annual percentage increase of operations and support (O&S) costs for fixed wing aircraft; and second, to place into the archival realm another reference for other researchers to consider when investigating other O&S topics. For this study of 21 different airframes grouped together at the Mission- Design Series (MDS), maintenance subcategories 3.1 Consumable Materials and Repair Parts, 3.2 Depot Level Repairables (DLR), and 3.4 Depot Maintenance accounted for an average 91.5% of annual organic maintenance costs. For contractor-maintained MDS, subcategory 3.7, Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) accounted for 96.6% of annual maintenance …

Text Mining Analysis Of Acquisition Reforms And Expert Views, Amanda L. Mcgowin, Jonathan D. Ritschel, R. David Fass, Bradley C. Boehmke

Faculty Publications

Legislation, in the form of acquisition reforms, is historically enacted to address perceived cost, schedule, and performance problems in the defense acquisition system. Text mining is utilized to examine five major reforms and a compendium of views from 32 acquisition experts to identify commonalities and disconnects.

Likelihood And Cost Impact Of Engineering Change Requirements For Dod Contracts, James C. Ellis, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine, Brandon Lucas, Ian S. Cordell

Faculty Publications

Purpose: There appears to be no empirical-based method in the literature for estimating if an engineering change proposal (ECP) will occur or the dollar amount incurred. This paper aims to present an empirically based approach to address this shortfall.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the cost assessment data enterprise database, 533 contracts were randomly selected via a stratified sampling plan to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP and the other to determine the expected median per cent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP was likely. Both models adopted a stepwise approach. A …

Estimating An Acquisition Program’S Likelihood Of Staying Within Cost And Schedule Bounds, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Program managers use prior experience to spot potential programmatic areas of concern. Augmenting this experience, the authors present an empirical procedure to estimate the likelihood of a program not exceeding two schedule and cost thresholds: (a) 15 percent of the initial total acquisition cost estimate from Milestone (MS) B to Initial Operating Capability (IOC); and (b) 15 percent of the estimated length (in months) between MS B and IOC—the second bound being 25 percent of the cost and schedule estimate. Using logistic regression and odds ratios, the authors analyze 49 Department of Defense programs and generally find that electronic system …

Modeling Median Will-Cost Estimates For Defense Acquisition Programs, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay Koschnick, Brandon Lucas

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.

Design/methodology/approach: Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS …

Analyzing Cost Growth At Program Stages For Dod Aircraft, Scott J. Kozlak, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon Lucas, Michael J. Seibel

Faculty Publications

This research examines Cost Growth Factors (CGF) at various program stages for 30 Department of Defense aircraft programs. From Milestone (MS) B, the authors determine CGFs at the Critical Design Review (CDR), First Flight (FF), Development Test and Evaluation End, Initial Operational Capability (IOC), and Full Operational Capability. They find development CGFs are significantly larger than procurement CGFs. Additionally, cost growth primarily occurs early in the program. At CDR, which occurs on average at the 12 percent completion point of a program, aircraft programs had already experienced on average 15 percent of their total program cost growth. The first spike …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Acquisition Challenge: The Importance Of Incompressibility In Comparing Learning Curve Models, Justin R. Moore, John J. Elshaw, Adedeji B. Badiru, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly …

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …

Initial Capabilities Documents: A 10-Year Retrospective Of Tools, Methodologies, And Best Practices, Bryan D. Main, Michael P. Kretser, Joshua Shearer, Darrin A. Ladd

Faculty Publications

The Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) is 10 years old and ripe for review. A central output document of the JCIDS process is an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) used by the Department of Defense to define gaps in a functional capability area and define new capabilities required. The research team analyzed 10 years of ICDs to identify methods and trends. The team found that several methodologies were favored and a convergence emerged in format and necessary content. Additionally, potential shortfalls in current best practices of interest to implementers and decision makers are identified. Guidelines and best practices are …

Investigation Into The Ratio Of Operating And Support Costs To Life-Cycle Costs For Dod Weapon Systems, Gary L. Jones, Edward D. White, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

Recent legislation, such as the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, requires a renewed emphasis on understanding Operating and Support (O&S) costs. Conventional wisdom within the acquisition community suggests a 70:30 cost ratio with respect to O&S and acquisition of an average weapon system. Using 37 Air Force and Navy programs, the authors estimate the mean overall ratio of O&S costs to acquisition costs to be closer to 55:45, although many weapon systems displayed significant deviation from this 55 percent average. Contributing factors such as life expectancy and acquisition strategy (i.e., new system or modification) affect this variance. Their …

Surveying Cost Growth, Michael A. Greiner, Vince Sipple, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Cost growth that weapon systems incur throughout their acquisition life cycle concerns those who work in the acquisition environment. One way to reduce the amount of unexpected cost growth is to develop better cost estimates. In attaining better cost estimates though, it is often helpful to understand and account for potential cost drivers. Several cost studies, some of which specifically focus on the aircraft industry, have been performed documenting and investigating these growth factors. Overviews of these various cost growth studies are presented as other tools for the cost estimators and program managers.

An Assessment Of Air Force Development Portfolio Management Practices, Michael A. Greiner, Kevin J. Dooley, Dan L. Shunk, Ross T. Mcnutt

Faculty Publications

Selecting and managing development project portfolios is a critical function within the Air Force’s weapon systems development process. Decision makers must weigh benefits, costs, and mission needs for a variety of proposed new initiatives and current weapon systems programs in order to develop an effective portfolio that provides the best value to the User. This research examines current Air Force development portfolio management practices as perceived by those involved with the decision making process. Research findings indicate several gaps between Air Force practices and those commercial best practices as found in the literature. A general approach for bridging the differences …

The Impact Of The Packard Commission's Recommendations On Reducing Cost Overruns On Defense Acquisition Contracts, David S. Christensen, David A. Searle, Caisse Vickery

Faculty Publications

Using data from selected acquisition reports, Drezner et al. (1993) show that reform initiatives from 1960 to 1990 did not reduce cost growth on 197 defense programs. The average cost growth on these programs was 20 percent and did not change significantly for 30 years. Using data from the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary data base, we show a similar result. Initiatives based on the recommendations of the Packard Commission did not reduce the average cost overrun percent experienced on 269 completed defense acquisition contracts evaluated over an 8-year period (1988 through 1995). In fact, the cost performance experienced on development …

Blowing The Whistle Louder, Richard C. Reuben

Faculty Publications

Amid the continuing national debate over deficit reduction, a case before the U.S. Supreme Court has multibillion-dollar ramifications in fraud recoveries for the federal government. At issue in Hughes Aircraft Co. v. United States ex rel. Schumer, No. 95-1340, is the reach of the U.S. False Claims Act, 31 U.S.C. § 3729, et seq., which permits private parties to bring whistleblower lawsuits - also called "qui tam" actions - against companies that allegedly are defrauding the government. But they can only bring such actions if the information they present about alleged fraud has not already been "publicly disclosed." The lower …

Defense Contractor Buyer-Seller Relationships: Theoretical Approaches, Carl R. Templin

Faculty Publications

This article examines the applicability of three theoretical approaches to defining defense buyer-seller relationships. Economic Free-Market Theory explains the relative economic power of the participants but ignores the legal, political, and socioeconomic aspects so pervasive in defense acquisitions. Transaction Cost Economics provides a framework for determining the most cost-effective type of contract governance for each transaction. Systems theory explores the degree of interdependence between the buyers and sellers systems. Each theory contributes unique insights into defense buyer-seller relationships that can be used to judge the appropriateness of contracting laws, regulations, policies, and management approaches for specific acquisition environments.

Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact Or Fiction, David D. Christensen

Faculty Publications

Program managers are advocates by necessity, When taken to the extreme, program advocacy can result in the suppression of adverse information about the status of a program gram. Such was the case in the Navy's A-12 Program. In A-12 Administrative inquiry, Beach (1990) speculates that such abiding cultural problems were not unique to the Navy. To test that assertion, this paper examines cost overrun data on 64 completed acquisition contracts extracted from the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary database. Cost overruns at various contract completion points are compared with projected final cost overruns estimated by contractor and government personnel. 17 comparison …