Law Commons^™

Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Next 40 Years Of Environmental Law, Robert V. Percival

Robert Percival

The only certainty concerning predictions for the future of the environment is that most of them are likely to be wrong. This is illustrated by the fate of past predictions, such as those contained in Paul Ehrlich's Populations Bomb, Gregg Easterbrook's A Moment on the Earth, and Bjørn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist. While it is difficult to guess at the future of the environment, predictions concerning environmental law are even more hazardous because they turn in large part on the future of politics. After reviewing current political gridlock over environmental concerns, this Article considers contemporary forecasts of the fate of …

Statement On Prediction Markets, Vernon L. Smith, Kenneth J. Arrow, Shyam Sunder, Robert Forsythe, Robert E. Litan, Eric Zitzewitz, Michael Gorham, Robert W. Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Paul R. Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Erik C. Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers

Vernon L. Smith

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors.

We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit …