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Forecasting

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Full-Text Articles in Law

Main Methods Of Criminological Forecasting, N Akhmetzakirov Apr 2018

Main Methods Of Criminological Forecasting, N Akhmetzakirov

ProAcademy

The a rticle discusses the m e th o d o lo g y o f c rim in o lo g ic a l fo re ca sting o f crimes. The a rticle a lso describes m ethods o f fo re ca sting b a s e d o n e xtra p ola tion , m a th e m a tica l m o d e l a n d the D e lp h i m ethod.


Main Methods Of Criminological Forecasting, N Akhmetzakirov Apr 2018

Main Methods Of Criminological Forecasting, N Akhmetzakirov

ProAcademy

The a rticle discusses the m e th o d o lo g y o f c rim in o lo g ic a l fo re ca sting o f crimes. The a rticle a lso describes m ethods o f fo re ca sting b a s e d o n e xtra p ola tion , m a th e m a tica l m o d e l a n d the D e lp h i m ethod.


A General Approach For Predicting The Behavior Of The Supreme Court Of The United States, Daniel Katz Apr 2017

A General Approach For Predicting The Behavior Of The Supreme Court Of The United States, Daniel Katz

All Faculty Scholarship

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries ...


Forecasting The Senate Vote On The Supreme Court Vacancy, Scott J. Basinger, Maxwell Mak Jan 2016

Forecasting The Senate Vote On The Supreme Court Vacancy, Scott J. Basinger, Maxwell Mak

Publications and Research

This paper forecasts current senators’ votes on Merrick Garland’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, in the unlikely case that a vote actually takes place. The forecasts are necessarily conditional, awaiting measurement of the nominee’s characteristics. Nonetheless, a model that combines parameters estimated from existing data with values of some measurable characteristics of senators—particularly their party affiliations, party loyalty levels, and ideological positions—is sufficient to identify potential swing voters in the Senate. By accounting for a more nuanced and refined understanding of the confirmation process, our model reveals that if President Obama were to nominate ...


Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Next 40 Years Of Environmental Law, Robert V. Percival Nov 2013

Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Next 40 Years Of Environmental Law, Robert V. Percival

Robert Percival

The only certainty concerning predictions for the future of the environment is that most of them are likely to be wrong. This is illustrated by the fate of past predictions, such as those contained in Paul Ehrlich's Populations Bomb, Gregg Easterbrook's A Moment on the Earth, and Bjørn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist. While it is difficult to guess at the future of the environment, predictions concerning environmental law are even more hazardous because they turn in large part on the future of politics. After reviewing current political gridlock over environmental concerns, this Article considers contemporary forecasts of ...


Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Next 40 Years Of Environmental Law, Robert V. Percival Jan 2013

Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Next 40 Years Of Environmental Law, Robert V. Percival

Faculty Scholarship

The only certainty concerning predictions for the future of the environment is that most of them are likely to be wrong. This is illustrated by the fate of past predictions, such as those contained in Paul Ehrlich's Populations Bomb, Gregg Easterbrook's A Moment on the Earth, and Bjørn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist. While it is difficult to guess at the future of the environment, predictions concerning environmental law are even more hazardous because they turn in large part on the future of politics. After reviewing current political gridlock over environmental concerns, this Article considers contemporary forecasts of ...


Research Note: Forecasting Macau's Gaming Revenue And Its Seasonality, Ipkin Anthony Wong Dec 2012

Research Note: Forecasting Macau's Gaming Revenue And Its Seasonality, Ipkin Anthony Wong

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

The gaming literature has identified a number of factors that have driven the growth of Macau's casino industry. At the same time, however, questions remain as to future prospects for the growth of the enclave's gaming revenue- and specifically, whether this type of growth can be sustained. A forecast of Macau gaming revenue and an examination of its seasonality can assist scholars and practitioners alike in developing a better understanding of seasonal variation (a significant consideration in the volatile world of gaming) and the future outlook of the world gambling capital. The objective of this article is to ...


The Mythology Of Game Theory, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nick Weller Jan 2012

The Mythology Of Game Theory, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nick Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Non-cooperative game theory is at its heart a theory of cognition, specifically a theory of how decisions are made. Game theory's leverage is that we can design different payoffs, settings, player arrays, action possibilities, and information structures, and that these differences lead to different strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. It is well-known that, in experimental settings, people do not adopt the predicted strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. The standard response to this mismatch of prediction and observation is to add various psychological axioms to the game-theoretic framework. Regardless of the differing specific proposals and results, game theory uniformly makes certain cognitive ...


The Pragmatist’S Guide To Comparative Effectiveness Research, Amitabh Chandra, Anupam B. Jena, Jonathan Skinner Apr 2011

The Pragmatist’S Guide To Comparative Effectiveness Research, Amitabh Chandra, Anupam B. Jena, Jonathan Skinner

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.


Will Quants Rule The (Legal) World?, Edward K. Cheng Apr 2009

Will Quants Rule The (Legal) World?, Edward K. Cheng

Michigan Law Review

The quants are coming! And they are here to stay-so argues Professor Ian Ayres' in his new book, Super Crunchers, which details the brave new world of statistical prediction and how it has already begun to affect our lives. For years, academic researchers have known about the considerable and at times surprising advantages of statistical models over the considered judgments of experienced clinicians and experts. Today, these models are emerging all over the landscape. Whether the field is wine, baseball, medicine, or consumer relations, they are vying against traditional experts for control over how we make decisions. To be sure ...


Will Quants Rule The (Legal) World?, Edward K. Cheng Jan 2009

Will Quants Rule The (Legal) World?, Edward K. Cheng

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

Professor Ian Ayres, in his new book, Super Crunchers, details the brave new world of statistical prediction and how it has already begun to affect our lives. For years, academic researchers have known about the considerable and at times surprising advantages of statistical models over the considered judgments of experienced clinicians and experts. Today, these models are emerging all over the landscape. Whether the field is wine, baseball, medicine, or consumer relations, they are vying against traditional experts for control over how we make decisions. For the legal system, the take-home of Ayres's book and the examples he describes ...


Uncertainty Revisited: Legal Prediction And Legal Postdiction, Ehud Guttel, Alon Harel Dec 2008

Uncertainty Revisited: Legal Prediction And Legal Postdiction, Ehud Guttel, Alon Harel

Michigan Law Review

Legal scholarship, following rational-choice theory, has traditionally treated uncertainty as a single category. A large body of experimental studies, however, has established that individuals treat guesses concerning the future differently than guesses concerning the past. Even where objective probabilities and payoffs are identical, individuals are much more willing to predict a future event (and are more confident in the accuracy of their predictions) than they are willing to postdict a past event (and are also less confident in the accuracy of their postdiction). For example, individuals are more willing to bet on the results of a future die toss than ...


Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?, Alan M. Garber, Jonathan Skinner Sep 2008

Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?, Alan M. Garber, Jonathan Skinner

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.


Statement On Prediction Markets, Vernon L. Smith, Kenneth J. Arrow, Shyam Sunder, Robert Forsythe, Robert E. Litan, Eric Zitzewitz, Michael Gorham, Robert W. Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Paul R. Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Erik C. Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers Apr 2007

Statement On Prediction Markets, Vernon L. Smith, Kenneth J. Arrow, Shyam Sunder, Robert Forsythe, Robert E. Litan, Eric Zitzewitz, Michael Gorham, Robert W. Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Paul R. Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Erik C. Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers

Vernon L. Smith

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors.

We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will ...


Hedonic Damages, Hedonic Adaptation, And Disability, Samuel R. Bagenstos, Margo Schlanger Apr 2007

Hedonic Damages, Hedonic Adaptation, And Disability, Samuel R. Bagenstos, Margo Schlanger

Vanderbilt Law Review

Over the past quarter century, the concept of "adaptive preferences" has played an important role in debates in law, economics, and political philosophy. As Professor Jon Elster has described this psychological phenomenon, "people tend to adjust their aspirations to their possibilities." A number of prominent scholars have argued that the existence of adaptive preferences "raises serious problems for neoclassical economics and for unambivalent enthusiasm for freedom of choice." Because our current preferences are constrained by the opportunities available to us, proponents of adaptive preference theory contend, those preferences may not be the best guide to what is in our interests ...


Comment: Experts Who Don't Know They Don't Know, Jonathan Koehler Jan 2007

Comment: Experts Who Don't Know They Don't Know, Jonathan Koehler

Faculty Working Papers

Sadly, the conclusion reached by Green and Armstrong (2006) – that experts should not be used for predicting the decisions that people will make in conflicts – comes as no surprise. Decades ago, Armstrong himself taught us that expertise beyond a minimal level does not improve judgmental accuracy across a variety of domains (Armstrong, 1980). More recently, Tetlock (2006) drove home the point in a study of hundreds of political experts who made thousands of forecasts over many years. Like Green and Armstrong (2006), Tetlock (2006) found that that expert forecasts were frequently inaccurate. In a nod to Armstrong's previous work ...


The World Grain Economy To 2050: A Dynamic General Equilibrium, Two Sector Approach To Long-Term World-Level Macroeconomic Forecasting, Benn Eifert, Carlos Galvez, Naureen Kabir, Avinash Kaza, Jack Moore, Christine Pham Jan 2002

The World Grain Economy To 2050: A Dynamic General Equilibrium, Two Sector Approach To Long-Term World-Level Macroeconomic Forecasting, Benn Eifert, Carlos Galvez, Naureen Kabir, Avinash Kaza, Jack Moore, Christine Pham

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

Though fifty years is a tremendous time horizon for the forecasting of any trend involving the complex interactions of billions of people and billions of hectares of intricate planetary ecosystems, the analytic methodology of economics is the most capable toolbox available for such forecasting. At the center of such a forecast are two complex functions, supply and demand, coevolving over time and codetermining prices, production, investment, labor flows, export patterns, and most other major variables.


From Discounting To Incorporating Decisions' Long-Term Impacts, Elizabeth Atherton Mar 2000

From Discounting To Incorporating Decisions' Long-Term Impacts, Elizabeth Atherton

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Ms. Atherton urges a different approach to valuing the impact of present day decisions on future generations.


Transport Modeling – Technical And Legal Issues, Adrian Brown Jun 1992

Transport Modeling – Technical And Legal Issues, Adrian Brown

Uncovering the Hidden Resource: Groundwater Law, Hydrology, and Policy in the 1990s (Summer Conference, June 15-17)

27 pages.

Contains footnotes.