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"Plausible Cause": Explanatory Standards In The Age Of Powerful Machines, Kiel Brennan-Marquez

Faculty Articles and Papers

The Fourth Amendment's probable cause requirement is not about numbers or statistics. It is about requiring the police to account for their decisions. For a theory of wrongdoing to satisfy probable cause-and warrant a search or seizure-it must be plausible. The police must be able to explain why the observed facts invite an inference of wrongdoing, and judges must have an opportunity to scrutinize that explanation.

Until recently, the explanatory aspect of Fourth Amendment suspicion-"plausible cause"-has been uncontroversial, and central to the Supreme Court's jurisprudence, for a simple reason: explanations have served, in practice, as a guarantor of statistical likelihood. …