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How Should The E.U. Respond To Brexit And Trump?: The Lessons From Trade Wars, John C. Coffee Jr. Jan 2017

How Should The E.U. Respond To Brexit And Trump?: The Lessons From Trade Wars, John C. Coffee Jr.

Faculty Scholarship

The U.K.’s decision to exit the E.U. (popularly known as “Brexit”) sets the stage for a potential retaliatory trade war. Similarly, the aggressive nationalism of U.S. President Donald Trump does also. In both cases, game theory suggests how such a conflict might be resolved. This paper first examines three standard game theory models – the Chicken Game, the Prisoner’s Dilemma, and the Stag-Hunt Game – and then turns to the strong incentives for rent-seeking by special interests and considers how rent-seeking likely affects how these games might play out. Although the conventional wisdom expects that the U.K. will suffer retaliation …