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Deliberating Beyond Evidence: Lessons From Integrated Assessment Modelling, Elisa Vecchione
Deliberating Beyond Evidence: Lessons From Integrated Assessment Modelling, Elisa Vecchione
Elisa Vecchione
The premises of this paper rely on associating policy inertia toward action on climate change with the inadequacy of the classical ‘liability culture’ of evidence-based policy-making to deal with this global environmental challenge. To provide support to this hypothesis, the following discussion analyses the technical properties and the current policy use of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of economic-climate interactions. The paper contends that IAM is still not clarified enough as far as its potential for information-production in the framework of policy making processes is concerned, and that this fact is symptomatic of the current inability of societies to undertake the …
Science For The Environment: Examining The Allocation Of The Burden Of Uncertainty, Elisa Vecchione
Science For The Environment: Examining The Allocation Of The Burden Of Uncertainty, Elisa Vecchione
Elisa Vecchione
The aim of this paper is to review the basic literature on scientific uncertainty in its statistical paradigm in order to provide enlightenment on one pivotal facet of the precautionary principle, i.e. the allocation of the burden of proof to demonstrate that an activity is not harmful to the environment. The purpose is not to explain a new theory of statistical inference, but to show how regulatory policymaking that is properly informed by scientific expertise and designed to avoid one type of error, may actually make other errors more likely and thus expose the public to danger. This problem is …