Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

A Simulation Approach To Evaluate The Impact Of Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis On Patient Outcomes, Sierra Wagner

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Breast cancer overdiagnosis risk is difficult to estimate and varies significantly across current research. This research establishes a simulation approach to examine the relationship between breast cancer overdiagnosis and patient outcome and understand the impact that the range of breast cancer overdiagnosis rate estimates in the current literature has on patient outcomes. Overdiagnosis is represented in this study by a set of disease regression probabilities. Using microsimulation, we evaluate patient outcome, measured by number of mammograms and lifetime breast cancer mortality risk, as a function of treatment policy and regression probability. We use numerical experiments to evaluate treatment policies and …