Engineering Commons^™

Increasing Heat-Stress Inequality In A Warming Climate, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, John T. Abatzoglou, Jan F. Adamowski, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Bhaskar Chittoori, Ata Akbari Asanjan, Mojtaba Sadegh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Adaptation is key to minimizing heatwaves' societal burden; however, our understanding of adaptation capacity across the socioeconomic spectrum is incomplete. We demonstrate that observed heatwave trends in the past four decades were most pronounced in the lowest-quartile income region of the world resulting in >40% higher exposure from 2010 to 2019 compared to the highest-quartile income region. Lower-income regions have reduced adaptative capacity to warming, which compounds the impacts of higher heatwave exposure. We also show that individual contiguous heatwaves engulfed up to 2.5-fold larger areas in the recent decade (2010–2019) as compared to the 1980s. Widespread heatwaves can overwhelm …

Catchment Processes Can Amplify The Effect Of Increasing Rainfall Variability, Marc F. Müller, Kevin R. Roche, David N. Dralle

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

By filtering the incoming climate signal when producing streamflow, river basins can attenuate—or amplify—projected increases in rainfall variability. A common perception is that river systems dampen rainfall variability by averaging spatial and temporal variations in their watersheds. However, by analyzing 671 watersheds throughout the United States, we find that many catchments actually amplify the coefficient of variation of rainfall, and that these catchments also likely amplify changes in rainfall variability. Based on catchment-scale water balance principles, we relate that faculty to the interplay between two fundamental hydrological processes: water uptake by vegetation and the storage and subsequent release of water …

Warming Enabled Upslope Advance In Western Us Forest Fires, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, John T. Abatzoglou, Charles H. Luce, Jan F. Adamowski, Arvin Farid, Mojtaba Sadegh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increases in burned area and large fire occurrence are widely documented over the western United States over the past half century. Here, we focus on the elevational distribution of forest fires in mountainous ecoregions of the western United States and show the largest increase rates in burned area above 2,500 m during 1984 to 2017. Furthermore, we show that high-elevation fires advanced upslope with a median cumulative change of 252 m (−107 to 656 m; 95% CI) in 34 y across studied ecoregions. We also document a strong interannual relationship between high-elevation fires and warm season vapor pressure deficit (VPD). …

Western Fires Are Burning Higher In The Mountains At Unprecedented Rates: It’S A Clear Sign Of Climate Change, Mojtaba Sadegh, John Abatzoglou, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Western U.S. appears headed for another dangerous fire season, and a new study shows that even high mountain areas once considered too wet to burn are at increasing risk as the climate warms.

Nearly two-thirds of the U.S. West is in severe to exceptional drought right now, including large parts of the Rocky Mountains, Cascades and Sierra Nevada. The situation is so severe that the Colorado River basin is on the verge of its first official water shortage declaration, and forecasts suggest another hot, dry summer is on the way.

Warm and dry conditions like these are a recipe …

Another Dangerous Fire Season Is Looming In The Western U.S., And The Drought-Stricken Region Is Headed For A Water Crisis, Mojtaba Sadegh, Amir Aghakouchak, John Abatzoglou

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out.

It’s only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California’s governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs …

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel Idf Estimates Over Median-Based Idf Estimates: Analysis Over The Susquehanna And Florida, Abhishekh Kumar Srivastava, Richard Grotjahn, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Mojtaba Sadegh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of …

Wildfires Force Thousands To Evacuate Near Los Angeles: Here’S How The 2020 Western Fire Season Got So Extreme, Mojtaba Sadegh, Ata Akbari Asanjan, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Two wildfires erupted on the outskirts of cities near Los Angeles, forcing more than 100,000 people to evacuate their homes Monday as powerful Santa Ana winds swept the flames through dry grasses and brush. With strong winds and extremely low humidity, large parts of California were under red flag warnings.

High fire risk days have been common this year as the 2020 wildfire season shatters records across the West.

More than 4 million acres have burned in California – 4% of the state’s land area and more than double the previous annual record. Five of the state’s six largest historical …

The Year The West Was Burning: How The 2020 Wildfire Season Got So Extreme, Mojtaba Sadegh, Ata Akbari Asanjan, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

More than 4 million acres of California went up in flames in 2020 – about 4% of the state’s land area and more than double its previous wildfire record. Five of the state’s six largest fires on record were burning this year.

In Colorado, the Pine Gulch fire broke the record for that state’s largest wildfire, only to be surpassed by two larger blazes, the Cameron Peak and East Troublesome fires.

Oregon saw one of the most destructive fire seasons in its recorded history, with more than 4,000 homes destroyed.

What caused the 2020 fire season to become so extreme?

Changes In The Exposure Of California’S Levee-Protected Critical Infrastructure To Flooding Hazard In A Warming Climate, Iman Mallakpour, Mojtaba Sadegh, Amir Aghakouchak

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Levee systems are an important part of California's water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Data

Corresponding data set for Tran-SET Project No. 18HSTSA02. Abstract of the final report is stated below for reference:

"Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Publications

Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used to calculate future 1st and 3rd quartiles, median, minimum and maximum intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF). A HEC-HMS and GSSHA …

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and building bridges with …

Climate‐Induced Changes In The Risk Of Hydrological Failure Of Major Dams In California, Iman Mallakpour, Amir Aghakouchak, Mojtaba Sadegh

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Existing major reservoirs in California, with average age above 50 years, were built in the previous century with limited data records and flood hazard assessment. Changes in climate and land use are anticipated to alter statistical properties of inflow to these infrastructure systems and potentially increase their hydrological failure probability. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of infrastructure incidents, revisiting dam failure risks associated with possible shifts in the streamflow regime is fundamental for societal resilience. Here we compute historical and projected flood return periods as a proxy for potential changes in the risk of hydrological failure of dams in a …

Prediction And Rehabilitation Of Highway Embankment Slope Failures In Changing Climate, Navid Jafari, Anand Puppala

Data

Corresponding data set for Tran-SET Project No. 17GTLSU04. Abstract of the final report is stated below for reference:

"Highway slopes constructed with clayey soil are prone to desiccation cracks due to wetting and drying weather cycle, which allows greater moisture infiltration into the embankment from precipitation. Fissures formed due to extended wetting and drying cycles allow water to seep deeper into the soil than surficial wetting and increase the water content. This increases the moisture content in the soil and results in reduction in shear strength to the fully softened strength. On the other hand, development of desiccation cracks and …

A New Normal For Streamflow In California In A Warming Climate: Wetter Wet Seasons And Drier Dry Seasons, Iman Mallakpour, Mojtaba Sadegh, Amir Aghakouchak

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this study, we investigate changes in future streamflows in California using bias-corrected and routed streamflows derived from global climate model (GCM) simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Unlike previous studies that have focused mainly on the mean streamflow, annual maxima or seasonality, we focus on projected changes across the distribution of streamflow and the underlying causes. We report opposing trends in the two tails of the future streamflow simulations: lower low flows and higher high flows with no change in the overall mean of future flows relative to the historical baseline (statistically significant at 0.05 level). …

Rainwater Harvesting System Scenario Analysis On Runoff Reduction Potential In Surabaya, Indonesia: A Geospatial Analysis For Brantas Hilir Watershed, Putri Sukmahartati

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Global warming has become an environmental concern over the past several decades and its impact on the water cycle is very crucial to the well-being of the human population. In the hydrological cycle, water evaporates by the heat of the sun and atmosphere, where it is accumulated in the atmosphere via clouds and it then falls as rain. With warmer temperatures, more intensive evaporation and downpours occur. In addition, impervious surfaces are increasing as a result of urban development. Those surfaces cause more water to flow faster into open water bodies, creating more extensive flooding, and additionally reducing water quality. …

Climate, Not Conflict, Explains Extreme Middle East Dust Storm, Anthony J. Parolari, Dan Li, Elie Bou-Zeid, Gabriel Katul, Shmuel Assouline

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (September 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending ‘Dust Bowl.’ Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover …

Increasing Atmospheric Humidity And Co2 Concentration Alleviate Forest Mortality Risk, Yanlan Liu, Anthony J. Parolari, Mukesh Kumar, Chang-Wei Huang, Gabriel Katul, Amilcare Porporato

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO₂ concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal …

Resilience Of Rail Infrastructure In The U.S. Northeast Corridor, Daniel Delgado, Can B. Aktas Ph.D.

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications

The New Haven Line reports a record number of passengers every year as it continues to experience a steady increase in ridership. In 2012, the railroad reported 39 million passengers, with a further increase of 46% predicted over the next 18 years eventually reaching 57 million trips annually by 2030. Despite the great importance of the rail infrastructure for the region, problems exist for operating under harsh weather-related conditions, and when congestion or frequent malfunctions disrupts system timeliness with speed restrictions. These on-time performance and reliability issues have significant economic, environmental, and societal impacts. The aim of this study was …

Water At The Centre Of Environmental Issues – Research At The Ucd Dooge Centre For Water Resources Research, Zeinab Bedri, Eva M. Mockler, Michael Bruen, Yaqian Zhao, Pj Purcell, John O'Sullivan, M. Alsaji, Aisling Corkery, Liam Doherty, M. Dzakpasu, M. Martins, A. Rymszewicz, L. Willuwet

Conference papers

Since 1988, the UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research has been conducting research in a wide range of water topics including hydraulics, hydrology, coastal dynamics and wastewater with an emphasis on multi-disciplinary collaboration. This paper presents an overview of this research, both past and present, and provides an outlook to the future research directions of the Centre.

Explaining The Hydroclimatic Variability And Change In The Salmon River Basin, Venkataramana Sridhar, Xin Jin, W. Thilini Jaksa

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change in the Pacific Northwest and in particular, the Salmon River Basin (SRB), is expected to bring about 3–5 °C rise in temperatures and an 8 % increase in precipitation. In order to assess the impacts due to these changes at the basin scale, this study employed an improved version of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which includes a parallel version of VIC combined with a comprehensive parameter estimation technique, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) to estimate the streamflow and other water balance components. Our calibration (1955–1975) and validation (1976–1999) of the model at the outlet of the basin, White …

Climate Change Adaptation Chapter: Marshfield, Massachusetts, Joshua H. Chase, Jonathan G. Cooper, Rory Elizabeth Fitzgerald, Filipe Antunes Lima, Sally R. Miller, Toni Marie Pignatelli

Landscape Architecture & Regional Planning Studio and Student Research and Creative Activity

Climate change, understood as a statistically significant variation in the mean state of the climate or its variability, is the greatest environmental challenge of this generation (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001). Marshfield is already being affected by changes in the climate that will have a profound effect on the town’s economy, public health, coastal resources, natural features, water systems, and public and private infrastructure. Adaptation strategies have been widely recognized as playing an important role in improving a community’s ability to respond to climate stressors by resisting damage and recovering quickly.

Based on review of climate projections for the …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Hydrology And Water Resources In The Boise And Spokane River Basins, Xin Jin, Venkataramana Sridhar

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin-scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from −3.8 to 36%. …

Fertilization Effects On The Ecohydrology Of A Southern California Annual Grassland, Anthony J. Parolari, Michael L. Goulden, Rafael L. Bras

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

Nitrogen limits leaf gas exchange, canopy development, and evapotranspiration in many ecosystems. In dryland ecosystems, it is unclear whether increased anthropogenic nitrogen inputs alter the widely recognized dominance of water and energy constraints on ecohydrology. We use observations from a factorial irrigation and fertilization experiment in a nitrogen-limited southern California annual grassland to explore this hypothesis. Our analysis shows growing season soil moisture and canopy-scale water vapor conductance are equivalent in control and fertilized plots. This consistency arises as fertilization-induced increases in leaf area index (LAI) are offset by reduced leaf area-based stomatal conductance, gs. We interpret this as evidence …

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Sustainable Portland: Implementation Series 3, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

This report is the third in a series of efforts by students at the Muskie School of Public Service, Community Planning and Development Master’s program, in a core class called “Sustainable Communities.” In this course students seek to understand principles of sustainability and how efforts to implement Sustainability programs can become more successful. The report assembles term papers students completed on particular efforts by municipalities, universities, and other groups to achieve sustainability goals. Students worked on each project in a service learning format with real world clients. They were asked to fashion their papers around lessons learned by other organizations …

Sustainable Portland: Implementation Series 2, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

The Portland Municipal Climate Change Working Group prepared a report in March 2008 that outlined several recommendations as a commitment by the City to address greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) produced during daily municipal operations. The Municipal Climate Action Plan was written in partnership with Clean Air – Cool Planet and Portland officials, and acknowledges under Recommendation #2 that an employee energy efficiency program would provide significant positive impact on the City’s reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Best practices from three cities show that focus on the greening of City Hall is critical in developing a program that promotes partnerships, community …

Sustainable Portland: Implementation Series 1, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

When the Sustainable Portland Task Force Report was released in November 2007, under the leadership of Mayor Jim Cohen, Portland Councilor Kevin Donoghue had the idea that students at the Muskie School of Public Service might be able to help implement recommendations from the report. It may have helped that Kevin was himself a graduate of the Community Planning and Development Master’s program at the Muskie School, but it was a good idea nevertheless. He approached Professor Sam Merrill in the CPD program, who spoke with the new Mayor Ed Suslovic about a possible partnership between the City and the …