Engineering Commons^™

Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method …

Groundwater Management Optimization And Saltwater Intrusion Mitigation Under Uncertainty, Jina Yin

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Groundwater is valuable to supply fresh water to the public, industries, agriculture, etc. However, excessive pumping has caused groundwater storage degradation, water quality deterioration and saltwater intrusion problems. Reliable groundwater flow and solute transport modeling is needed for sustainable groundwater management and aquifer remediation design. However, challenges exist because of highly complex subsurface environments, computationally intensive groundwater models as well as inevitable uncertainties. The first research goal is to explore conjunctive use of feasible hydraulic control approaches for groundwater management and aquifer remediation. Water budget analysis is conducted to understand how groundwater withdrawals affect water levels. A mixed integer multi-objective …

Identification And Reduction Of Uncertainties In Watershed-Scale Flow And Water Quality Modeling, Maryam Roostaee

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This study identified important uncertainties affecting watershed-scale flow and water quality simulations and recommended modeling options for reducing the uncertainties by means of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Specifically, parameter-induced uncertainties in HSPF model were estimated along with uncertainties associated with DEM resolutions and sources. National Elevation Dataset (NED) DEMs with original and resampled resolutions of 3.5, 10, 30 and 100m were utilized for manual and automatic delineation of three watersheds with different gradients in HSPF model to identify the effects of DEM resolution, DEM resampling, delineation method and watershed gradient on the simulation of streamflow, nitrate (NO_{3 …}

Modeling Cascading Failures In Power Systems In The Presence Of Uncertain Wind Generation, Mir Hadi Athari

Theses and Dissertations

One of the biggest threats to the power systems as critical infrastructures is large-scale blackouts resulting from cascading failures (CF) in the grid. The ongoing shift in energy portfolio due to ever-increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) may drive the electric grid closer to its operational limits and introduce a large amount of uncertainty coming from their stochastic nature. One worrisome change is the increase in CFs.

The CF simulation models in the literature do not allow consideration of RES penetration in studying the grid vulnerability. In this dissertation, we have developed tools and models to evaluate the impact …

Effects Of Uncertainty Refinement On Satellite Collision Probability, Bruce Thomas Morrison

Masters Theses

"Due to the drastic increase in orbital debris about the Earth, the likelihood for new and current mission satellites to collide with other objects grows. When a mission satellite is placed in a highly populated orbit in the vicinity of other satellites or debris, it is necessary to consider the probability of collision to assess any possible conjunctions. The computation of the collision probability is heavily dependent on the relative position and velocity of the objects during conjunction, as well as the combined covariance. There are two main types of analytic collision probability computations; the first assumes that the objects …

Time-Dependent Reliability Methodologies With Saddlepoint Approximation, Zhangli Hu

Doctoral Dissertations

"Engineers always encounter time-dependent uncertainties that ubiquitously exist, such as the random deterioration of material properties and time-variant loads. Therefore the reliability of engineering systems becomes time-dependent. It is crucial to predict the time-dependent reliability in the design stage, given possible catastrophic consequences of a failure. Although extensive research has been conducted on reliability analysis, estimating the reliability accurately and efficiently is still challenging. The objective of this work is to develop accurate and efficient reliability methodologies for engineering design. The basic idea is the integration of traditional reliability methods with saddlepoint approximation (SPA), which can accurately approximate the tail …

Propagation Of Uncertainty Through Coning, Sculling, And Scrolling Corrections For Inertial Navigation, James Daniel Alan Brouk

Masters Theses

"This thesis investigates the propagation of estimation errors through generalized coning, sculling, and scrolling algorithms used in modern day inertial navigation systems, in order to accurately quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of position, velocity, and attitude. The corrections for coning, sculling, and scrolling algorithms have an often unaccounted for effect on documented and empirically derived error statistics for measurements used to predict the uncertainty in a vehicle's position, velocity, and attitude estimates. Through the development of an error analysis for these generalized algorithms, mappings of the measurement and estimation errors through the correction termare generated. Using the developed mappings, …