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Detection Of Intensification Of The Global Water Cycle: The Potential Role Of Friend, Alan D. Zeigler, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, Bart Nijssen, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Diagnostic studies of 14-year, 2 — 2°, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model off-line simulations of the global terrestrial water budget suggest that, given the annual variability in the major components of continental hydrological cycles (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff), several decades to perhaps centuries of measurements may be needed to detect with high confidence the intensification predicted by recent global climate model (GCM) studies simulating plausible global warming scenarios. Furthermore, these measurements may need to originate from a wider geographic expanse than is currently investigated within large-scale hydrological assessment programmes, such as the Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX). Smaller, geographically …