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Air Force Institute of Technology
Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Machine Learning Prediction Of Dod Personal Property Shipment Costs, Tiffany Tucker [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals
Machine Learning Prediction Of Dod Personal Property Shipment Costs, Tiffany Tucker [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals
Faculty Publications
U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) personal property moves account for 15% of all domestic and international moves - accurate prediction of their cost could draw attention to outlier shipments and improve budget planning. In this work 136,140 shipments between 13 personal property shipment hubs from April 2022 through March 2023 with a total cost of $1.6B were analyzed. Shipment cost was predicted using recursive feature elimination on linear regression and XGBoost algorithms, as well as through neural network hyperparameter sweeps. Modeling was repeated after removing 28 features related to shipment hub location and branch of service to examine their influence …
An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell
An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell
Theses and Dissertations
Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner
Theses and Dissertations
Artificial Intelligence is the next competitive domain; the first nation to develop human level artificial intelligence will have an impact similar to the development of the atomic bomb. To maintain the security of the United States and her people, the Department of Defense has funded research into the development of artificial intelligence and its applications. This research uses reinforcement learning and deep reinforcement learning methods as proxies for current and future artificial intelligence agents and to assess potential issues in development. Agent performance were compared across two games and one excursion: Cargo Loading, Tower of Hanoi, and Knapsack Problem, respectively. …
Training Logic And Random Forest Models To Predict It Spending, Jacob P. Batt
Training Logic And Random Forest Models To Predict It Spending, Jacob P. Batt
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force must modernize, but the distribution of funds for technology remains as tight as ever. To this end, the Air Force Audit Agency is looking to utilize machine learning techniques to enhance their capabilities. This research explores Logistic Regression and Random Forest modeling to streamline data collection and cost classification. The final Logistic Regression model identified 4 significant attributes out of the 36 given and was 85 accurate in predicting whether a purchase amount was over or under $10,000. To expand beyond binary classification, a six-category classification Random Forest model was developed. It identified 6 significant attributes and …
Using Custom Ner Models To Extract Dod Specific Entities From Contracts, Kayla P. Haberstich
Using Custom Ner Models To Extract Dod Specific Entities From Contracts, Kayla P. Haberstich
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Sustainment Center collected 3.7 million contracts onto the Air Force Research Laboratory’s high power computers. They are in the format of a .pdf or scanned document, making them unstructured data. The Data Analytics Resource Team extracted the documents into a textual format for use in further analysis. This thesis looks to extract four DOD specific entities (NSN, Part Number, CAGE Code, and Supplier Name) from the contracts using custom NER models. This newly extracted information will allow the Air Force to identify what parts are supplied by which vendors. This information along with historical CLIN pricing for …
Contract Information Extraction Using Machine Learning, Zachary E. Butcher
Contract Information Extraction Using Machine Learning, Zachary E. Butcher
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Sustainment Center assisted by the Data Analytics Resource Team and the Defense Logistics Agency collected four million contracts onto one of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s high power computers. This thesis focuses on the effort to determine if parts are available through those contracts. Some information is extracted using machine learning in combination with natural language processing. Where machine learning methods are unsuccessful or inappropriate, text mining techniques, such as pattern recognition and rules, are used. Upon completion, the information is combined into a Gantt chart for quick evaluation. Only 21% of the contracts have their information …
Lightning Prediction For Space Launch Using Machine Learning Based Off Of Electric Field Mills And Lightning Detection And Ranging Data, Anson Cheng
Theses and Dissertations
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station, FL, where the Air Force conducts space launches, are in an area of frequent lightning strikes, which is main obstacle in meeting launch goals. The 45th Weather Squadron (45th WS) ensures that any weather safety requirements are met during pre-launch and actual space launch. Using only summer months from three years’ worth of lightning detection and ranging (LDAR) and electric field mill (EFM) data from KSC, several feedforward neural networks are constructed. Separate models are built for each EFM and trained by adjusting parameters to forecast lightning 30 minutes out in the …
Algorithm Selection Framework: A Holistic Approach To The Algorithm Selection Problem, Marc W. Chalé
Algorithm Selection Framework: A Holistic Approach To The Algorithm Selection Problem, Marc W. Chalé
Theses and Dissertations
A holistic approach to the algorithm selection problem is presented. The “algorithm selection framework" uses a combination of user input and meta-data to streamline the algorithm selection for any data analysis task. The framework removes the conjecture of the common trial and error strategy and generates a preference ranked list of recommended analysis techniques. The framework is performed on nine analysis problems. Each of the recommended analysis techniques are implemented on the corresponding data sets. Algorithm performance is assessed using the primary metric of recall and the secondary metric of run time. In six of the problems, the recall of …
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter
Theses and Dissertations
Despite the considerable academic interest in using machine learning methods to detect cyber attacks and malicious network traffic, there is little evidence that modern organizations employ such systems. Due to the targeted nature of attacks and cybercriminals’ constantly changing behavior, valid observations of attack traffic suitable for training a classifier are extremely rare. Rare positive cases combined with the fact that the overwhelming majority of network traffic is benign create an extreme class imbalance problem. Using publically available datasets, this research examines the class imbalance problem by using small samples of the attack observations to create multiple training sets that …
Short-Term Building Energy Model Recommendation System: A Meta-Learning Approach, Can Cui, Teresa Wu, Mengqi Hu, Jeffery D. Weir, Xiwang Li
Short-Term Building Energy Model Recommendation System: A Meta-Learning Approach, Can Cui, Teresa Wu, Mengqi Hu, Jeffery D. Weir, Xiwang Li
Faculty Publications
High-fidelity and computationally efficient energy forecasting models for building systems are needed to ensure optimal automatic operation, reduce energy consumption, and improve the building’s resilience capability to power disturbances. Various models have been developed to forecast building energy consumption. However, given buildings have different characteristics and operating conditions, model performance varies. Existing research has mainly taken a trial-and-error approach by developing multiple models and identifying the best performer for a specific building, or presumed one universal model form which is applied on different building cases. To the best of our knowledge, there does not exist a generalized system framework which …
A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart
A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart
Theses and Dissertations
An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …