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Air Force Institute of Technology
Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
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- Decision making (5)
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- Civil engineering--Labor productivity (1)
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- Contracting (1)
- Cost effectiveness (1)
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- Delphi method (1)
- Discriminant analysis (1)
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Articles 1 - 30 of 37
Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Modeling And Analysis Of Social Networks, Robert S. Renfro Ii
Modeling And Analysis Of Social Networks, Robert S. Renfro Ii
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. …
A Decomposition Approach For The Multi-Modal, Resource-Constrained, Multi-Project Scheduling Problem With Generalized Precedence And Expediting Resources, Michael L. Fredley
A Decomposition Approach For The Multi-Modal, Resource-Constrained, Multi-Project Scheduling Problem With Generalized Precedence And Expediting Resources, Michael L. Fredley
Theses and Dissertations
The field of project scheduling has received a great deal of study for many years with a steady evolution of problem complexity and solution methodologies. As solution methodologies and technologies improve, increasingly complex, real-world problems are addressed, presenting researchers a continuing challenge to find ever more effective means for approaching project scheduling. This dissertation introduces a project scheduling problem which is applicable across a broad spectrum of real-world situations. The problem is based on the well-known Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem, extended to include multiple modes, generalized precedence, and expediting resources. The problem is further extended to include multiple projects which …
Theater-Level Stochastic Air-To-Air Engagement Modeling Via Event Occurrence Networks Using Piecewise Polynomial Approximation, David R. Denhard
Theater-Level Stochastic Air-To-Air Engagement Modeling Via Event Occurrence Networks Using Piecewise Polynomial Approximation, David R. Denhard
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation investigates a stochastic network formulation termed an event occurrence network (EON). EONs are graphical representations of the superposition of several terminating counting processes. An EON arc represents the occurrence of an event from a group of (sequential) events before the occurrence of events from other event groupings. Events between groups occur independently, but events within a group occur sequentially. A set of arcs leaving a node is a set of competing events, which are probabilistically resolved by order relations. An important EON metric is the probability of being at a particular node or set of nodes at time …
Influence Of Personality Type And Anonymity On Participation In A Group Support System, Robert E. Hartmann
Influence Of Personality Type And Anonymity On Participation In A Group Support System, Robert E. Hartmann
Theses and Dissertations
A group support system (GSS) uses a combination of networked personal computers, software that collects, manipulates, and aggregates member's individual input, and human facilitation to improve the group decision-making process. A GSS has been promoted as a means of improving the quantity and quality of ideas within a decision-making meeting. Research into GSS has focused on the benefits of providing anonymity to improve participation. Anonymity in a GSS meeting has been offered as a means to improve participation, which in turn improves decision quality. To date this has not been proven through research. In fact, there is conflicting evidence as …
Minimum Distance Estimation For Time Series Analysis With Little Data, Hakan Tekin
Minimum Distance Estimation For Time Series Analysis With Little Data, Hakan Tekin
Theses and Dissertations
Minimum distance estimate is a statistical parameter estimate technique that selects model parameters that minimize a good-of-fit statistic. Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets. This research applies minimum distance estimation to the task of making time series predictions with very few historical observations. In a Monte Carlo analysis, we test a variety of distance measures and report the results based on many different criteria. Our analysis tests the robustness of the approach by testing its ability to make predictions when …
A Multi-Objective Decision Support Model For The Turkish Armed Forces Personnel Assignment System, Zubeyir Cimen
A Multi-Objective Decision Support Model For The Turkish Armed Forces Personnel Assignment System, Zubeyir Cimen
Theses and Dissertations
The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) assign more than 25,000 active duty personnel annually. TAF wants to obtain maximum utilization of its personnel by assigning the right person to the right job at the right time, To accomplish this task, decision-makers and personnel assignment staff should consider conflicting multiple objectives that create the widely known problem called "personnel assignment problem". To assist in this complicated task from a quantitative perspective, a preemptive goal programming approach was used to develop an integer programming (IP) model to capture the multiple objectives flexibly and interactively. A realistic size IP problem with random data was …
The Effects Of Budgetary Constraints, Multiple Strategy Selection, And Rationality On Equilibrium Attainment In An Information Warfare Simulation, Steven W. Tait
Theses and Dissertations
Information warfare (IW) has developed into a significant threat to the national security of the United States. Our critical infrastructures, linked together by information systems, are increasingly vulnerable to information attack. This study seeks to understand some of those factors which affect the ability of an individual to make accurate decisions in an IW environment. The study used game theory to analyze the behavior of decision-makers within an IW simulation. The IW game model is based on a set of games known as infinitely repeated games of incomplete information. It uses the Bayesian Nash equilibrium concept to determine the strategy …
Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation For Time Series Analysis, Ibrahim Dulger
Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation For Time Series Analysis, Ibrahim Dulger
Theses and Dissertations
Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE) is a Bayesian technique that applies a bank of Kalman filters to predict future observations. Each Kalman filter is based on a different set of parameters and hence produces different residuals. The likelihood of each Kalman filter's prediction is determined by a magnitude of the residuals. Since some researchers have obtained good forecasts using a single Kalman filter, we tested MMAE's ability to make time series predictions. Our Kalman filters have a dynamics model based on a Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and a measure model with additive noise. The time-series prediction is based …
A Process For Vectoring Offensive Information Warfare As A Primary Weapon Option Within The United States Air Force, Sheila G. Bennett
A Process For Vectoring Offensive Information Warfare As A Primary Weapon Option Within The United States Air Force, Sheila G. Bennett
Theses and Dissertations
Consistently and comprehensively using Information Operations (IO) capabilities as primary weapon option within the Air Force is the next step to operationalizing IO within the Air Force. Doctrine and official guidance has set the variables of mission and concepts of operations, organizational structure, and IW players in place. The missing variable to operationalizing IO and probably the most difficult is the 'how' or process of the equation. This research will introduce a useable process that can be incorporated within the Air Force for integrating offensive IW activities into the current and given environment. The process is the basis for further …
An Analysis Of The Acquisition Process For Simplified Acquisition Of Base Engineering Requirements (Saber) Contracts And Its Potential Impact On Contractor Performance, Brian J. Heaps
Theses and Dissertations
The Simplified Acquisition of Base Engineering Requirements (SABER) contract's main purpose is to expedite contract award of civil engineer requirements through the issuance of individual delivery orders. The contract contains a collection of detailed task specifications that include most types of real property maintenance, repair, and construction work. The Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition's Operational Contracting Division (SAF/AQCO) identified a number of failed SABER contracts. The problem statement designed for this research effort was: There are a large number of SABER contractors that are failing during the performance period on their SABER contracts. SAF/AQCO is trying to …
Influence Of Anonymity In A Group Problem-Solving Environment, Robert A. Sylvester
Influence Of Anonymity In A Group Problem-Solving Environment, Robert A. Sylvester
Theses and Dissertations
A group support system (GSS) uses a combination of networked personal computers, software that collects, manipulates, and aggregates member's individual input, and human facilitation to improve the group decision-making process. Prior GSS research has found that content and process anonymity influence problem solving groups. However, previous studies report mixed results on which levels of anonymity positively influence group performance. This thesis looked at content and process anonymity using four treatments to explore possible explanations for the mixed results found in previous GSS research. The study examined numerous theories including anonymity, identification, social loafing, and social comparison. An experiment was developed …
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we …
The Distributer's Three-Dimensional Pallet-Packing Problem: A Human Intelligence-Based Heuristic Approach, Erhan Baltacioglu
The Distributer's Three-Dimensional Pallet-Packing Problem: A Human Intelligence-Based Heuristic Approach, Erhan Baltacioglu
Theses and Dissertations
The Distributor's Pallet Packing Problem is to load a set of distinct boxes with given dimensions on pallets or in containers to maximize volume utilization. This problem is still in its early stages of research, but there is a high level of interest in developing effective models to solve this NP-hard problem to reduce the time, energy and other resources spent in packing pallets. In its search to improve operations, the Air Force is also making an effort to solve this problem. Building an analytical model and developing a genetic algorithm approach have been tried, but the problem needs more …
An Identification And Discussion Of Key Success Factors In The Acquisition Of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (Cots-) Based Systems, John F. Corbett
An Identification And Discussion Of Key Success Factors In The Acquisition Of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (Cots-) Based Systems, John F. Corbett
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was to explore COTS-based systems as they are acquired by the Air Force. Current guidance related to the acquisition of COTS-based systems is explored. Based upon the literature reviewed, the research targeted the specific area of acquisition plans. A multiple case study of acquisition plans from several COTS-based systems was performed. Current guidance related to the acquisition plan has not been specifically tailored to COTS-based systems. The results of the analysis of the COTS-based systems showed that the use total ownership cost (TOC) and cost as an independent variable (CAIV) enabled a system to he …
A Delphi Assessment Of The Digital Rosetta Stone Model, Don M. Kelley
A Delphi Assessment Of The Digital Rosetta Stone Model, Don M. Kelley
Theses and Dissertations
Information that is stored digitally can only be used if it can be retrieved and interpreted. if the methods to retrieve the information are lost, it may be difficult, if not impossible, to recreate them. The knowledge to interpret the bitstream is also at risk. The Digital Rosetta Stone (DRS) Model was developed as a framework for capturing and maintaining the methods necessary to retrieve and display digital information stored on obsolete media or using obsolete software. However, this conceptual model had not yet been assessed by the community of professionals for its practical efficacy. This thesis began the assessment …
Forecasting Readiness: Using Regression To Predict The Mission Capability Of Air Force F-16 Fighter Aircraft, Steven A. Oliver
Forecasting Readiness: Using Regression To Predict The Mission Capability Of Air Force F-16 Fighter Aircraft, Steven A. Oliver
Theses and Dissertations
According to many, the readiness of America's forces deteriorated in the 1990s. In the Air Force, the combat readiness of its fighter aircraft has declined. One of its indicators of combat readiness, the mission capable rate, is used to identify the percentage of aircraft unable to perform their missions. From FY94-FY98, the aggregate total not mission capable rate for maintenance steadily increased from 14% to 18.2% while total not mission capable rate for supply increased from 5.5% to 17.5% between FY86 and FY00. The USAF uses the funding/Availability Multi-Method Allocator for Spares model to forecast these rates for its aircraft. …
Gss Technology As A Moderator Of Influence And Perceived Expertise, Kevin V. Thompson
Gss Technology As A Moderator Of Influence And Perceived Expertise, Kevin V. Thompson
Theses and Dissertations
Group Support System (355) research has found this content and process anonymity influence problem solving groups. However, previous studies report mixed results on how OSS technology changes social influence processes and recognition of expertise which affect group performance. This thesis explored content and process anonymity's affect on influence and perceived expertise using three treatments to derive possible explanations for the mixed results found in previous GSS research. The study developed a theoretical model of influence, perceived expertise, and performance. Using structural equation modeling the study tested the relationships between expertise and participation rates, and overall group performance. An experiment was …
Routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles While Considering General Restricted Operating Zones, Darin T. Brown
Routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles While Considering General Restricted Operating Zones, Darin T. Brown
Theses and Dissertations
U.S. military forces employ unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to conduct intelligence-gathering missions worldwide. For a typical mission, commanders may task UAV operators to gather imagery on 100 or more sites or targets. UAV operators must quickly prepare mission plans that meet the needs of their commanders while dealing with real-world constraints such as time windows, site priorities, imagery requirements, UAVs with different capabilities (i.e. imagery equipment, speed, and range), and UAVs departing from different bases. Previous AFIT research provided the UAV Battlelab with a tool, AFIT Router, for generating high-quality routes to aid mission planning. This research enhances the AFIT …
Influence Of Feedback And Comment Labels On Information Sharing In A Computer Mediated Collaborative Environment, Gary D. Denney
Influence Of Feedback And Comment Labels On Information Sharing In A Computer Mediated Collaborative Environment, Gary D. Denney
Theses and Dissertations
A group support system (GSS) uses a combination of networked personal computers, software, and human facilitation to improve the group decision-making process. Group support Systems are being used in the Air Force today in a variety of capacities and in particular by the Warner-Robins Air Logistics Center (WR-ALC) to assess acquisition risks. Prior GSS research has found that certain structural and social dimensions of GSS designs might influence whether optimal process improvements take place. However, the dimensions that positively influence group performance have continued to be a matter of debate. This thesis looked at several structural and social contingencies to …
The Effect Of External Safeguards On Human-Information System Trust In An Information Warfare Environment, Gregory S. Fields
The Effect Of External Safeguards On Human-Information System Trust In An Information Warfare Environment, Gregory S. Fields
Theses and Dissertations
This research looks at how human trust in an information system is influenced by external safeguards in an Information Warfare (1W) domain. Information systems are relied upon in command and control environments to provide fast and reliable information to the decision-makers. The degree of reliance placed in these systems by the decision-makers suggests a significant level of trust. Understanding this trust relationship and what effects it is the focus of this study. A model is proposed that predicts behavior associated with human trust in information systems. It is hypothesized that a decision-maker's belief in the effectiveness of external safeguards will …
Evaluation Of Strategy-Structure Fit Of Space And Missile Systems Center Detachment 11, Tommy M. Gates
Evaluation Of Strategy-Structure Fit Of Space And Missile Systems Center Detachment 11, Tommy M. Gates
Theses and Dissertations
Activated June 1,1998, Space and Missile Systems Center Detachment 11, located in Colorado Springs, integrates system support management for the Satellite Launch Control System (SLCS), MlLSTAR, the Defense Meteorological Support Program (DMSP), the Space Based Infrared System (SBlRSl, and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Detachment performs operational software maintenance, satellite systems engineering, space testing and evaluation, and technology master planning. Contemporary management theory asserts that the appropriate match of strategy and structure determines an organization's level of performance. The Detachment is currently organized programmatically. The current programmatic organizational structure represents the physical manifestation of the Integrated Weapon System Management …
Weapon System Environmental Life Cycle Cost Methodologies And Models, William H. Kale Iii
Weapon System Environmental Life Cycle Cost Methodologies And Models, William H. Kale Iii
Theses and Dissertations
Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) cost billions of dollars and have 30 to 50 year life spans. Numerous (federal, state, etc.) laws, Environmental Protection Agency regulations, and Executive Orders have driven DoD to develop and implement significant environmental policies within the past ten to fifteen years. Congressional mandate now requires each MDAP to evaluate its environmental life cycle cost (ELCC) to minimize these costs. This research focuses on the current methodologies and models used to predict and calculate the ELCC of a MDAP. This thesis analyzed the difficulties associated with using ELCC methodologies and models and examined several case studies …
Malicious Hackers: A Framework For Analysis And Case Study, Laura J. Kleen
Malicious Hackers: A Framework For Analysis And Case Study, Laura J. Kleen
Theses and Dissertations
Recent years have seen an increase in the number and severity of Information Operations (IO) attacks upon DoD resources. At a higher level, the US as a whole has come under cyber attack by individuals and groups seeking thrills, monetary gain, publicity for their causes, and myriad other goals. This effort develops a first cut model of individual hacker mentality that can be utilized to improve threat assessment, mitigate Information Assurance (IA) vulnerabilities, and improve risk assessment. Further, it is a first step toward automated characterization of Information Warfare (IW) attacks based upon hacker types. All hackers are not the …
Using Statistical Process Control Methods To Classify Pilot Mental Workload, Terence Y. Kudo
Using Statistical Process Control Methods To Classify Pilot Mental Workload, Terence Y. Kudo
Theses and Dissertations
The problem of classifying pilot mental workload is important to the United States Air Force. Pilots are more subject to errors and G-induced loss of consciousness during periods of mental overload and task saturation. Often the result is the loss of aircraft, and in extreme cases, the loss of the pilot's life. Current research efforts use different psychophysiological features to classify pilot mental workload. These include cardiac, ocular, respiratory, and brain activity measures. The focus of this effort is to apply statistical process control methodology on different psychophysiological features in an attempt to classify pilot mental workload. The control charts …
An Analysis Of Total System Performance Responsibility In Air Force Acquisitions, Christopher P. White
An Analysis Of Total System Performance Responsibility In Air Force Acquisitions, Christopher P. White
Theses and Dissertations
This research examined how well the goals and objectives of total system performance responsibility (TSPR) are being met. The research was sparked by the rise of implementing TSPR as an element of an acquisition strategy in many weapon and information systems. Acquisition professionals use TSPR to decrease total ownership cost, improve system performance, and optimize public-private support capabilities while maintaining operational flexibility. However, while the number of programs that use or plan to implement TSPR or some form of contractor support and sustainment continues to increase, little research has been conducted concerning the effectiveness of TSPR as an element of …
Identifying Demand Indicators For Air Force Recruiting Service With Discriminant Analysis, Jason L. Williams
Identifying Demand Indicators For Air Force Recruiting Service With Discriminant Analysis, Jason L. Williams
Theses and Dissertations
A changing public disposition towards military service has all four military branches rethinking recruiting practices. This Air Force is reacting to this new recruiting climate by increasing the bonuses for new recruits, pumping up advertising budgets, and bolstering recruiting personnel levels. This thesis provides a new tool for assessing how to allocate these new resources. Discriminant Analysis is used to identify population characteristics that categorize recruiting locations. A methodology is constructed that can discriminate between communities where interest is high in military service and where recruiting efforts will not be productive.
A Force Structuring Model For A Moderately-Sized Nato Country, Hakan Bal
A Force Structuring Model For A Moderately-Sized Nato Country, Hakan Bal
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model which will aid the decision-makers of a moderately-sized NATO country to develop their future force structure composition. As the number of alternatives grows, and as the consequences become more important and more uncertain, the force structuring decision becomes increasingly difficult. The valuable lessons of past experience cannot be ignored. However, when one considers the high rotation rates of most countries' air forces, the rapid change in technology and the vast array of options available, even the most experienced leaders need some assistance. Hence, decision support tools are needed to …
Modeling Information Assurance, Joseph E. Beauregard
Modeling Information Assurance, Joseph E. Beauregard
Theses and Dissertations
The ever-increasing speed of information systems allows decision-makers around the world to gather, process, and disseminate information almost instantaneously. However, with this benefit there comes a price. Information is valuable and therefore a target to those who do not have it or wish to destroy it. The Internet has allowed information to flow freely, but it has also made information vulnerable to many forms of corruption. The U. S. military controls much of the world's most sensitive information, and since it cannot sacrifice losing the speed at which this information is currently processed and disseminated, it must find a way …
Robust Multi-Scenario Optimization Of An Air Expeditionary Force Structure Applying Scatter Search To The Combat Forces Assessment Model, Gokay Bulut
Theses and Dissertations
Modern Times' bring change in all areas of life. Even the rate of change has changed, and is still changing to increase it's enormous speed even more. Newer and more challenging questions face the military analysts everyday putting a question mark at the end of their last answer. Recently, the question of how to structure a robust air force to meet the requirements of competing, uncertain future scenarios has been keeping them busy. The new world order does not tolerate only being able to respond to a single scenario anymore, which once was considered a hard problem. Who knows what …
Award Term Incentive Contracting: An Investigation Of United States Air Force Strategic Purchasing, Rachael A. Harris
Award Term Incentive Contracting: An Investigation Of United States Air Force Strategic Purchasing, Rachael A. Harris
Theses and Dissertations
This research explored implementing a best commercial practice of establishing strategic purchasing relationships within the Department of Defense (DOD) procurement environment. The research was sparked by Air Force Material Command's (AFMC) instituting a commercial style acquisition strategy using an award term incentive on several programs. The award term incentive provides for extensions or reductions to the term of the contract based on contractors' level of performance. Forthcoming implementation of Air Force FAR supplement 5317.7X Incentive Term Extension, will likely increase the number of acquisitions using an award term incentive. Research findings indicate that management should consider expanding the AFMC award …