Engineering Commons^™

Embrace The Unknown: Stop Saying “It’S Too Hard” And Start Embracing Uncertainty In Your Mine Plans, C. Roos

Mining Engineering

Nearly every input to a mine plan is based on an estimate. The estimates may be from sample data, historical information, models, or personal opinion, but in all cases, these values are simply expected values (means). In real life, we do not get to iterate the exact conditions at our mining operation many times to ensure that that average value is attained. The expected value also tells us nothing about the spread of values that that input might take on. The result is a significant amount of unquantified uncertainty in our mine plans. Unfortunately, it is often too expensive or …