Engineering Commons^™

Bayesian Nonparametric Model For Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution, Emmanuel Kidando, Ren Moses, Eren E. Ozguven, Thobias Sando

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

© 2017 Emmanuel Kidando et al. Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM) with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as …