Engineering Commons^™

Reverse Decision Making And Goal Attainment A Proof Of Concept As A New Approach To The Decision Making Process Under Uncertainty, Shitalkumar S. Sabne

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Decision making occurs when one must choose among alternatives. However, in uncertain environments where problems are complex and decision makers lack complete knowledge of the situation as well as decision alternatives, it's not possible for them to select an optimal decision outcome by 'Traditional Decision Approaches'. At present Reverse Decision Making is the central, although new and unproved, approach of Old Dominion University's Engineering Management and Systems Engineering research on decision making process for uncertain and complex situations. Even though research in decision making spans over one hundred years, there are still important problems which remain to be addressed.

There …

Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments Of The Estimation Of Uncertainty Bias In Expert Judgment Elicitation Using An Evidence Based Approach In High Consequence Conceptual Designs, Colin K. S. Barrows

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a 'High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment' and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making …