Engineering Commons^™

A Panel Data Regression Model For Defense Merger And Acquisition Activity, Corey D. Mack, Clay Koschnick, Michael Brown, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between a prime contractor's financial health and its mergers and acquisitions (M&A) spending in the defense industry. It aims to provide models that give the United States Department of Defense (DoD) indications of future M&A activity, informing decision-makers and contributing to ensuring competitive markets that benefit the consumer.

The results show a significant relationship between efficiency and M&A spending, indicating that companies with lower efficiency tend to spend more on M&As. However, there was no significant relationship between M&A spending and a company's profitability or solvency. These results were consistent with previous research and …

Air Force Institute Of Technology Research Report 2022, Air Force Institute Of Technology

AFIT Documents

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology's Graduate School of Engineering and Management, as well as AFIT's research centers. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; list student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedure for contacting entities within the Institution.

Air Force Institute Of Technology Research Report 2021, Air Force Institute Of Technology

AFIT Documents

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology's Graduate School of Engineering and Management, as well as AFIT's research centers. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; list student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedure for contacting entities within the Institution.

Domain Restriction Zones: An Evolution Of The Military Exclusion Zone, Cole M. Mooty, Robert A. Bettinger, Mark G. Reith

Faculty Publications

Since the early part of the twenty-first century, US adversaries have expanded their military capabilities within and their access to new warfighting domains. When faced with the growth of adversaries’ asymmetric capabilities, the means, tactics, and strategies previously used by the US military lose their proportional effectiveness. To avoid such degradation of capability, the operational concept of the military exclusion zone (MEZ) should be revised to suit the modern battlespace while also addressing the shifts in national policy that encourage diplomacy over military force. The concept and development of domain restriction zones (DRZs) increase the relevancy of traditional MEZs in …

Measuring Radiation Protection: Partners From Across The Nuclear Enterprise Evaluate The Radiation Protection Of Us Army Vehicles, Andrew W. Decker, Robert Prins

Faculty Publications

Recent mounting nuclear threats and postures from adversary nation-states, such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, represent a clear danger to the interests and security of the United States of America and its Allies. To meet these threats, the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to design, develop, and manage a combat-credible U.S. military which, among other prioritizations, is survivable. A survivable force can generate combat power despite adversary attacks. As such, the US Army must prepare today to set the conditions for successful conventional warfare on the nuclear battlefields of tomorrow. Our Army cannot …

Team And Skill Matching For Disaster Recovery Operations, Emily B. Frahm

Theses and Dissertations

United States Air Force (USAF) bases are key power projection platforms that ensure mission readiness and help bring humanitarian aid to locations in need. Recovering airfields after attack or natural disaster is a key mission of USAF civil engineers, and accomplishing this repair as swiftly as possible is key to maintaining our position in the global order. Accomplishing a disaster recovery project is a set of teams, each assigned to a specific task, and made up of a series of personnel. The question answered within this paper is: how do we match the right person with the appropriate skills to …

A Transformer Based Architecture For Indonesian Sentiment Analysis - Exploring Indobert Variations, Training Size, And Self-Supervised Model Training, Connor F. Shaw

Theses and Dissertations

There is strong motivation in both civilian and military circles to understand the attitudes, motivations, feelings, and emotions of a population of interest. Social media is a rich source of self-disclosed information by individuals from all walks of life about virtually every domain of the human experience, but the vast quantity of data is impossible to effectively analyze without advanced natural language processing algorithms. This research creates a transfer learning based emotion classification model for Indonesian language Twitter data. Transfer learning consists of two steps: pre-training and fine tuning. Three variations of Indonesian Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (IndoBERT) are …

Beyond The High Ground: A Taxonomy For Earth-Moon System Operations, Adam P. Wilmer, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Situational and space domain awareness in the space domain can no longer be confined to that which is found in geosynchronous orbit. International activities—commercial and military—and threats to the planet itself exist and are increasing across the entire Earth-Moon system. This reality requires a new taxonomy to accurately classify space domain awareness missions and better apply resources to and development of the same. This work presents such a taxonomy for the classification of space domain awareness regions.

Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz

Theses and Dissertations

Conflict has sadly been a constant part of history. Winning a conflict and making a lasting peace are often not the same thing. While a peace treaty ends a conflict and often dictates terms from the winners’ perspective, it may not create a lasting peace. Short of unconditional surrender, modern conflict ends with a negotiated cessation of hostilities. Such accords may have some initial reconstruction agreements, but Reconciliation, Restoration and Reconstruction (RRR) is a long term process. This study maintains that to achieve a lasting peace: 1) The culture and beliefs of the conflict nation must be continuously considered and …

Composite Style Pixel And Point Convolution-Based Deep Fusion Neural Network Architecture For The Semantic Segmentation Of Hyperspectral And Lidar Data, Kevin T. Decker, Brett J. Borghetti

Faculty Publications

Multimodal hyperspectral and lidar data sets provide complementary spectral and structural data. Joint processing and exploitation to produce semantically labeled pixel maps through semantic segmentation has proven useful for a variety of decision tasks. In this work, we identify two areas of improvement over previous approaches and present a proof of concept network implementing these improvements. First, rather than using a late fusion style architecture as in prior work, our approach implements a composite style fusion architecture to allow for the simultaneous generation of multimodal features and the learning of fused features during encoding. Second, our approach processes the higher …

Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard

Theses and Dissertations

Large and rapidly growing cities and other urban agglomerations have the potential to become incubators of political instability. This is especially true of rapidly growing cities which are located in countries that are also experiencing high rates of growth in their youth population. Rapid growth rates put stress on urban infrastructure and other institutions, and these stresses can cause major problems for both city and national governments. Knowing when these cities and countries may be trending toward their tipping points regarding political instability will help governments and international organizations develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the risk of instability.

Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem

Theses and Dissertations

Mass migration destabilizes neighboring states, opening the way for fragile state exploitation by enemies, including those that could undermine U.S. national interests. This study investigates an area of the Levant region, specifically countries neighboring Syria, and analyzes their perspective on Syrian refugees for the time frame of 1 June 2019 - 30 June 2020. This analysis may assist in forming policy and creating strategies to address refugee related issues, both domestic and international. There are three main questions addressed. The first inspects dominant refugee framing, the second explores sentiment (dis)similarity within each country and across countries, and the third investigates …

Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios, Andrew E. Pekarek

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of research on covert networks uses social network analysis (SNA) to determine critical members of the network to either kill or capture for the purpose of network destabilization. This thesis takes the opposite approach and evaluates potential scenarios for inserting an agent into a covert network for information gathering purposes or future disruption operations. Due to the substantial number of potential insertion scenarios in a large network, this research proposes three screening heuristics that leverage SNA measures to reduce the solution space before applying a simple search heuristic.

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

A Comparison Of Sporadic-E Occurrence Rates Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Measurements, Rodney Carmona, Omar A. Nava, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

Sporadic-E (E_s) occurrence rates from Global Position Satellite radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements have shown to vary by a factor of five between studies, motivating the need for a comparison with ground-based measurements. In an attempt to find accurate GPS-RO techniques for detecting E_s formation, occurrence rates derived using five previously developed GPS-RO techniques are compared to ionosonde measurements over an eight-year period from 2010–2017. GPS-RO measurements within 170 km of a ionosonde site are used to calculate E_s occurrence rates and compared to the ground-truth ionosonde measurements. The techniques are compared individually for each ionosonde site …

Machine Learning Land Cover And Land Use Classification Of 4-Band Satellite Imagery, Lorelei Turner [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

Land-cover and land-use classification generates categories of terrestrial features, such as water or trees, which can be used to track how land is used. This work applies classical, ensemble and neural network machine learning algorithms to a multispectral remote sensing dataset containing 405,000 28x28 pixel image patches in 4 electromagnetic frequency bands. For each algorithm, model metrics and prediction execution time were evaluated, resulting in two families of models; fast and precise. The prediction time for an 81,000-patch group of predictions wasmodels, and >5s for the precise models, and there was not a significant change in prediction time when a …

A Simulation–Optimization Framework For Post-Disaster Allocation Of Mental Health Resources, Stephen Cunningham, Steven J. Schuldt, Christopher M. Chini, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Extreme events, such as natural or human-caused disasters, cause mental health stress in affected communities. While the severity of these outcomes varies based on socioeconomic standing, age group, and degree of exposure, disaster planners can mitigate potential stress-induced mental health outcomes by assessing the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term treatment interventions by social workers and psychologists. However, local and state authorities are typically underfunded, understaffed, and have ongoing health and social service obligations that constrain mitigation and response activities. In this research, a resource assignment framework is developed as a coupled-state transition and linear optimization model that …

Interdependent Infrastructure Recovery Using Multilayered Networks And Optimization, Brigham A. Moore

Theses and Dissertations

Interdependent infrastructure recovery modeling and simulation are complicated due to various interdependent connections and complexities. Current efforts have identified both operational and restoration interdependency subtypes and coupling strategies that have not been integrated into one comprehensive model. This research presents a model which simultaneously integrates nine interdependency subtypes and four coupling strategies in a multi-objective format to provide the most tailorable and comprehensive network-based recovery model available. This research also created a defense-centric interdependent infrastructure database by modifying the existing CLARC database. This research then addressed assumptions regarding recovery work management in order to address the impact of work crew …

Examining The Impact Of Logistics On Military Strength Among East Asian Nations Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Meaghan E. Crandell

Theses and Dissertations

The current narrative in logistics revolves around modernization and the rapid development and deployment of capabilities, which is a sentiment echoed across the Air Force and the DoD alike. However, the combination of intangible and tangible aspects of logistics can make it challenging to find a foundational place to start the process. The purpose of this study is to evaluate logistical factors to include land area, infrastructure, labor force, and GDP and their relationship to military power. This foundation will provide a baseline of areas for improvement and replication. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and linear regression were leveraged to analyze …

Learning Set Representations For Lwir In-Scene Atmospheric Compensation, Nicholas M. Westing [*], Kevin C. Gross, Brett J. Borghetti, Jacob A. Martin, Joseph Meola

Faculty Publications

Atmospheric compensation of long-wave infrared (LWIR) hyperspectral imagery is investigated in this article using set representations learned by a neural network. This approach relies on synthetic at-sensor radiance data derived from collected radiosondes and a diverse database of measured emissivity spectra sampled at a range of surface temperatures. The network loss function relies on LWIR radiative transfer equations to update model parameters. Atmospheric predictions are made on a set of diverse pixels extracted from the scene, without knowledge of blackbody pixels or pixel temperatures. The network architecture utilizes permutation-invariant layers to predict a set representation, similar to the work performed …

An Argument Against Satellite Resiliency: Simplicity In The Face Of Modern Satellite Design, Dax Linville [*], Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force and the wider US government rely heavily on space-based capabilities in various orbital regimes to project national security and sovereignty. However, these capabilities are enabled by the design, launch, and operation of satellites produced with a design methodology that favors large, monolithic, and technologically exquisite space systems. Despite the ability for these satellites to provide enduring and resilient capabilities, they suffer from a woefully long acquisition process that debilitates any prospect of rapid satellite reconstitution in the event of a space war.

Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …

Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Between Radio Tomographic Imaging And Noise Radar, Christopher Vergara

Theses and Dissertations

The lack of situational awareness within an operational environment is a problem that carries high risk and expensive consequences. Radio Tomographic Imaging (RTI) and noise radar are two proven technologies capable of through-wall imaging and foliage penetration. The intent of this thesis is to provide a proof of concept for the fusion of data from RTI and noise radar. The output of this thesis will consist of a performance comparison between the two technologies followed by the derivation of a fusion technique to produce a single image. Proposals have been made for the integration of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar with …

The Nuclear Network: Multiplex Network Analysis For Interconnected Systems, Bethany L. Goldblum, Andrew W. Reddie, Thomas C. Hickey, James E. Bevins, Sarah Laderman, Nathaniel Mahowald, Austin P. Wright, Elie Katzenson, Yara Mubarak

Faculty Publications

States facing the decision to develop a nuclear weapons program do so within a broader context of their relationships with other countries. How these diplomatic, economic, and strategic relationships impact proliferation decisions, however, remains under-specified. Adding to the existing empirical literature that attempts to model state proliferation decisions, this article introduces the first quantitative heterogeneous network analysis of how networks of conflict, alliances, trade, and nuclear cooperation interact to spur or deter nuclear proliferation. Using a multiplex network model, we conceptualize states as nodes linked by different modes of interaction represented on individual network layers. Node strength is used to …

Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer

Theses and Dissertations

Opinion dynamics is the study of how opinions in a group of individuals change over time. A goal of opinion dynamics modelers has long been to find a social science-based model that generates strong diversity -- smooth, stable, possibly multi-modal distributions of opinions. This research lays the foundations for and develops such a model. First, a taxonomy is developed to precisely describe agent schedules in an opinion dynamics model. The importance of scheduling is shown with applications to generalized forms of two models. Next, the meta-contrast influence field (MIF) model is defined. It is rooted in self-categorization theory and improves …

Non-Gnss Smartphone Pedestrian Navigation Using Barometric Elevation And Digital Map-Matching, Daniel Broyles, Kyle J. Kauffman, John F. Raquet, Piotr Smagowski

Faculty Publications

Pedestrian navigation in outdoor environments where global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are unavailable is a challenging problem. Existing technologies that have attempted to address this problemoften require external reference signals or specialized hardware, the extra size,weight, power, and cost of which are unsuitable for many applications. This article presents a real-time, self-contained outdoor navigation application that uses only the existing sensors on a smartphone in conjunction with a preloaded digital elevation map. The core algorithm implements a particle filter, which fuses sensor data with a stochastic pedestrian motion model to predict the user’s position. The smartphone’s barometric elevation is then …

An Analysis Of Aircraft Operating And Support Cost Element Structures, Garrett B. O'Hanlon

Theses and Dissertations

As the cost of DoD Weapon Systems continue to increase, the ability to more accurately predict the Operating and Support (O&S) costs for the various weapon systems has become more vital for long run affordability. The investigation into the O&S arena has been overshadowed by the research and development (R&D) and acquisition fields. This research focuses on the O&S portion of the total life cycle costs, specifically the OSD-CAPE Cost Element Structure (CES) elements and sub-elements. The research investigates seven categories of 52 aircrafts and their cost expenditures within the CES from the years 1996-2016. The first portion of the …

Stereoscopic 3-D Presentation For Air Traffic Control Digital Radar Displays, Jason G. Russi, Brent T. Langhals, Michael E. Miller, Eric L. Heft

AFIT Patents

An apparatus and method of presenting air traffic data to an air traffic controller are provided. Air traffic data including a two dimensional spatial location and altitude for a plurality of aircraft is received. A disparity value is determined based on the altitude for each aircraft of the plurality of aircraft. Left and right eye images are generated of the plurality of aircraft where at least one of the left and right eye images is based on the determined disparity value. The left and right eye images are simultaneously displayed to the air traffic controller on a display. The simultaneously …

Refugees In Urban Environments: Social, Economic, And Infrastructure Impacts, Garrett L. Jameson

Theses and Dissertations

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has estimated that in 2015 there were 21.3 million refugees worldwide; it is estimated that 1.8 million of these persons were newly displaced during 2015. As refugees leave their country to seek the protection of another nation's government, they generally flow into urban areas. The impact of this flow on cities and on the refugees, themselves, is not fully understood. This study is focused on the impact of government policy decisions on the social, legal, and economic integration of refugees within an urban environment. Investigation into this topic resulted in the development of …

A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross

Theses and Dissertations

Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …