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Risk Quantification And Reliability Based Design Optimization In Reusable Launch Vehicles, Jason Maxwell King

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Due to the inherent natural variability of parameters with reusable launch vehicles, design considerations without use of a reliability or safety index may be unreliable and vulnerable to vehicle failures. Generally in preliminary air vehicle design little information is known regarding design variable uncertainties, consequently requiring a technique that can quantify epistemic uncertainties. Evidence Theory is employed to accomplish this task resulting in a reliability bound of belief and plausibility. Due to the discontinuous nature of the belief and plausibility function it is necessary to implement a continuous function known as plausibility decision to be used to calculate sensitivities that …