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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Quantifying Impacts Of Climate Change On Headwater Streamflow Regime In Robinson Forest: Insights From 35-Years Of Data Collection., Lauren Brown
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Climate change may shift patterns of streamflow permanence in headwater systems by altering the frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of surface streamflow, impacting both local ecosystems as well as regional water budgets and availability. While much uncertainty surrounds modeling-based methods to quantify the impacts of climate change on water budgets, long-term hydrologic data collected from headwaters in experimental research forests serve as critical evidence to reduce such uncertainty. The objective of this study is to quantify shifts in frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of streamflow in two headwater catchments with relatively little recent disturbance …
Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery
Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery
Masters Theses
Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent, similarly sized watersheds within the same Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 6 basin. A Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a wide range of extreme precipitation events across the combined …
Variance Decomposition Of Forecasted Water Budget And Sediment Processes Under Changing Climate In Fluvial And Fluviokarst Systems, Nabil Al Aamery
Variance Decomposition Of Forecasted Water Budget And Sediment Processes Under Changing Climate In Fluvial And Fluviokarst Systems, Nabil Al Aamery
Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering
Variance decomposition is the partitioning of different factors affecting the variance structure of a response variable. The present research focuses on future streamflow and sediment transport processes projections as the response variables. The authors propose using numerous climate factors and hydrological modeling factors that can cause any response variable to vary from historic to future conditions in any given watershed system. The climate modeling factors include global climate model, downscaling method, emission scenario, project phase, bias correction. The hydrological modeling factor includes hydrological model parametrization, and meteorological variable inclusion in the analysis. This research uses a wide spectrum of data, …
Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi
Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in Western North America (WNA) can cause significant socioeconomic problems and threaten existing infrastructure. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes and assess the role of internal variability over WNA, which collectively drain an area of about 1 million km2. We used gridded observations and downscaled precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (CanESM2-LE; 50 members) for this analysis. Spatial …
Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li
Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations
This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …
A Detailed Hydrodynamic Study To Help Community Based Resiliency Planning Under Extreme Climatic And Weather Events, Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad
A Detailed Hydrodynamic Study To Help Community Based Resiliency Planning Under Extreme Climatic And Weather Events, Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad
Theses and Dissertations
The State of New Jersey is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather and climatic events. This study concentrates on spatial and temporal vulnerability of these events using climate and hydrodynamic modelling. The first chapter focuses on historical climatic trend of temperature and precipitation as well as the future scenarios using 10 bias corrected climate model output considering high end emission scenario derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In the second chapter a coastal hydrodynamic model called ADCIRC-2DDI was implemented to assess the impact of hurricanes in the Western North Atlantic (WNAT) model domain. The efficiency of the model …
Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur
Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycle in Canada. In this study, future runoff projections made by 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs into a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model: CaMa-Flood to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) time-periods. Future changes in flood-hazard as a consequence of changes in flooding frequencies of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events, and changes in the month of occurrence of extreme flows are analyzed. Changes in flood risk at Canada’s 100 most populous cities and …
Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence
Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence
Doctoral Dissertations
Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …
Application Of A K-Nearest Neighbour Weather Generator For Simulation Of Historical And Future Climate Variables In The Upper Thames River Basin, Leanna M. King
Application Of A K-Nearest Neighbour Weather Generator For Simulation Of Historical And Future Climate Variables In The Upper Thames River Basin, Leanna M. King
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
Climate change has the potential to significantly alter the hydrologic cycle, changing the frequency and intensity of precipitation events in an area. It is necessary to quantify these effects to effectively manage water resources in the future. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), often used in climate change research, have spatial resolutions that are too large to capture the local climate characteristics of a watershed. As a result, several downscaling tools have been developed, including stochastic weather generators. A methodology for the simulation of historical and future climate data using a nonparametric K-Nearest Neighbour block resampling weather generator with perturbation …