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Probability Models For Wind-Penetrated Power Systems, Amir Hossein Shahirinia

Theses and Dissertations

A major challenge with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. However, the uncertainty about these wind speed models has not yet been considered. In this dissertation we use the Bayesian approach to taking into account the uncertainty inherent in the wind speed model. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view the distributions of the wind speed over a wind farm as being homogeneous. The Bayesian predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the …