Engineering Commons^™

Design Day Analysis - Forecasting Extreme Daily Natural Gas Demand, David Joseph Kaftan

Master's Theses (2009 -)

This work provides a framework for Design Day analysis. First, we estimate the temperature conditions which are expected to be colder than all but one day in N years. This temperature is known as the Design Day condition. Then, we forecast an upper bound on natural gas demand when temperature is at the Design Day condition. Natural gas distribution companies (LDCs) need to meet demand during extreme cold days. Just as bridge builders design for a nominal load, natural gas distribution companies need to design for a nominal temperature. This nominal temperature is the Design Day condition. The Design Day …